Comment by LarsDu88

Comment by LarsDu88 3 days ago

175 replies

Literally just one day after 23andMe presented positive phase 2 clinical results for two anti-cancer drugs: https://therapeutics.23andme.com/news-and-research/

The board of directors of 23andMe just resigned in protest. The CEO, Anne Wojcicki (who's sister Susan died of lung cancer last month, and was the former CEO of YouTube) had tried to low ball take the company private at only $0.40 a share -- a more than 96% drop from its deSPAC price.

For reference, right now the market cap of 23andMe is $172 million, its closest competitor Ancestry.com was bought out by the Blackstone group for $4.7 billion, and cumulative sales of KeyTruda - an anti-cancer drug in the same family as the one being developed by 23andMe had cumulative sales of $25 billion by 2023.

Feels like the main thing holding this company back is the CEO and lack of corporate governance (due to majority shareholder control resting in the hands of one person)

bruceb 3 days ago

Closest competitor does a lot of heavy lifting in this situation. Ancestry is the overwhelming leader in the find long lost relative space/your "roots" space. Look at https://www.ancestry.com/ and https://www.23andme.com/ 23andme has basically given up on this part of the business.

Their pitch is health. But that pitch is murky with no good hook to keep you hooked for a monthly subscription. So after they get the initial $99 from the customer, most of the value customer is going to get is already served up in the first report. Maybe their big database will turn into making cancer drugs but maybe it wont.

  • yellowapple 3 days ago

    > 23andme has basically given up on this part of the business.

    The routine emails I get about them allegedly finding new DNA relatives suggest otherwise. The DNA relatives feature is also still pretty prominent in their UI (at least on desktop browsers; haven't looked at the app yet).

    That said, it certainly doesn't offer much beyond "these are your relatives; send 'em some messages or something lol". Ancestry probably has a lot more features on that front, which is unsurprising since that's the sort of thing Ancestry was doing long before they even offered DNA sequencing kits like 23andMe does. I don't know if I'd characterize that as 23andMe "giving up", though; more that it's good enough for a product that never intended to enter the genealogy software market in the first place.

    • LgWoodenBadger 2 days ago

      The new-DNA-relatives feature is one of the few "growth" things they can continue to bother you with, outside of newly-discovered genome-based indicators for diseases.

      I get/got spammed by them about new relatives on the order of "6th cousin who shares 0.3% of your DNA." Thanks, but who cares...

      • busseio 2 days ago

        "Give the kits as gifts!" and you can learn about your closer relatives /s-ish

    • codedokode 2 days ago

      I wonder, do the "relatives" know and agree that their information is sent to other person?

      • sitharus 2 days ago

        …yes that’s how it works? You opt in and choose what you share. They’re quite explicit about it.

      • PawgerZ 2 days ago

        Yes. You must opt in. When you opt in, you can elect to show your full name, or just initals (may be other options but I opted in long ago).

  • Simon_ORourke 3 days ago

    > leader in the find long lost relative space/your "roots" space.

    Acknowledging Ancestry.com are well ahead of the market here, but I never got their appeal of finding some long-lost second cousins... basically strangers, and saying, "hey, isn't it fascinating that we share some arbitrary level of common genetic makeup". If some randomer reached out via email to me doing this big reveal I'd be "thanks, but into the spam folder with you".

    • vidarh 2 days ago

      It's not really the selling point. The selling point is the interest in the genealogy, and the "finding the long-lost second cousins" is a feature that helps you address the genealogy.

      Concrete example: My grandmother was born in Brooklyn. As it turns out, her half-brother lived a few blocks away. At the time my grandmother was born, he was 9 and living with his grandparents despite the fact his father lived nearby.

      I still don't know why, but when I found out he even existed - something I didn't know until long after my grandmother died -, I also soon found his daughter was alive and well in New Jersey, and was able to get in touch. I now have pictures, and stories to fill in not just his background, but thanks to that connection I now have pictures of the graves of my great-great-grandfather, and several of his children, and stories about my grandmothers uncles, and aunts she never mentioned while she was alive.

      I also have pictures of my great-grandfather - my mums grandfather - that I hadn't seen before.

      Of course, that is reasonably close, but sometimes those things end up passed down one side of a family, with no copies existing, and you can increasingly find relatives far away from you in the tree who has photos of shared ancestors, and that proportion will increase dramatically with each new generation.

      So every time I find a match, however remote, with an active account, you better believe I'll message them. Not because I care that we're related, but because I care about whether or not they can fill in some bit or other in my ancestry. For me, anyway, it's a fun puzzle more than anything else, when you go beyond the immediate family.

      Like why is that one ancestor showing up as a widow one moment, and someone with the same name as her husband showing up as married to her sister in the next census with an implausible country of origin? Can I find evidence to corroborate theories? Can I find that notorious "hat maker from Bremen" that almost certainly didn't exist but was cover for infidelity, or evidence that he didn't exist (I almost certainly can't) - it'd be funny, because an entire arm of the family took on the supposed, probably invented, last name of the hypothetical hat maker because an ancestor of theirs thought it sounded posh.

      The "long-lost second cousins" are just bit players in that game.

    • jkhdigital 2 days ago

      I don’t think anyone is actually trying to connect with distant cousins for social interaction; rather the shared DNA segments provide hard evidence to confirm distant ancestors. I got into genealogy a couple years ago after thumbing through some old family documents and I’ve been able to confirm 6th cousins (traced via our shared ancestors) using 23andMe data.

      Now there are probably some who think genealogy is a silly pastime and maybe it is, but researching my family history helps me feel grounded and more connected to humanity so I derive a lot of benefit from it.

      • vidarh 2 days ago

        I mean, computer games are a "silly pastime" too. Whether or not one feels grounded, it can also just simply be fun, and that fine. I've even enjoyed helping strangers solve genealogy problems because piecing together the evidence and ruling out options is just another type of puzzle and one that is often very challenging.

        For "close" relatives, I agree there can also be more to it.

        E.g. my mums mum never told us that much about her family (we never asked while she was around), and my mum didn't know either, and so uncovering more about that was very fascinating (it helped that there was plenty of drama to uncover) and helped fill in a lot of gaps.

    • derriz 2 days ago

      A first cousin of mine found a (adult) daughter he didn’t know he had through it. They are in the process of building a relationship. It was a significant/important discovery for them even without having a prior relationship.

    • appendix-rock 2 days ago

      That’s a very glib HN take.

      Interest in family trees predates Ancestry.com and will certainly outlast it. It’s not necessarily about contact. I’m not sure what’s controversial here.

      • gerdesj 2 days ago

        I run a small web server for a dataset we call the "BIGFAM" - Geneweb with a proxy on the front. It has >120,000 individuals in it. In places it is not so much a tree as a thicket!

        That data is hard fought and won by a relative who conducts meticulous research as a hobby. They've been at it for a good 20 odd years now.

    • iwishiknewlisp 2 days ago

      If you are from the United States its interesting to trace back your ancestry and last name to a specific person/persons from another country.

      There are tons of websites for different last names in the United States, showing history of the name. Many times the last name be traced back to a singular person, which I find especially cool since you have sprawling families all connected by one guy who made the journey over. Obviously last names like Smith won't be like this, but if you have a unique last name it can actually be quite common that one person coming to the new world connects you and everybody else in the Americas together. I find that super cool to think about and I am glad people are doing the effort to research and find this info out.

      • iwishiknewlisp 2 days ago

        In addition, for people who were adopted and didn't know their birth parents, it can be interesting to connect with your biological family through ancestry work.

        • percivalPep 2 days ago

          My mother is adopted and 23andMe and Ancestry have both provided me with a way of connecting with relatives as far apart as Canada and Australia. Before “revealing” my connection to them I’ve stated that in doing so I may reveal information about a shared ancestor that doesn’t put that person in the best light (my mum was the result of a short affair between a married man and a much younger woman at the end of World War 2). All have stated they are ok with this and in most cases had no contact to the ancestor involved anyway.

    • newsclues 2 days ago

      My mom (70year old boom) is obsessed with it.

      I think she is unhappy that our family line will likely end with me. (only child, who is almost a 40 year old virgin)

      If you don't get to see the future you want, consume your time with the past.

      • bruceb 13 hours ago

        Out of curiosity what stops you from romantic pursuits / marriage. If don't want to answer I of course understand.

    • slavik81 2 days ago

      The family tree is a big deal for Mormons due to their religious beliefs. They can baptise their ancestors, providing lost souls with a chance to convert after death.

    • samtho 2 days ago

      The rise of services like 23andMe and AncestryDNA have actually allowed people to discover information about their parentage that they would otherwise not have had access to, basically they find out that one or both of their parents are not biologically related to them. Individual situations range from extramarital affairs, closed adoption, in-familiy adoption (teen gets pregnant, her parents raise the child as a sibling), and those who’s parents chose to conceive with donor gametes. In many of these cases where it is a surprise, the parents have either actively chosen to withhold the information or didn’t know.

      In cases where the user is trying to find their parent, it’s statistically unlikely that their parent would have taken the test, but 2nd cousin matches are very common. These seem like a huge distance away, but you can work backwards and build a family tree up to their great grandparents and fan out from there.

      • greswen 2 days ago

        Yep, this happened to me. Got a random message from a half brother, dug deeper into my ancestry and realized that my dad isn’t actually my biological father. It was certainly an odd week for me when I found out.

    • FollowingTheDao 2 days ago

      I not only found a genetic disorder that my mother and I shared (Partial PNP Deficiency) but I also found an woman who was the illegitimate daughter of my Uncle (who had passed away) and she was fianlly able to see pictures of him and know more about him.

      There is so much more power in 23andMe's Raw Data regarding health than people realize and I am capitalizing on it. (Less with the v5 chip but it is still really good,)

      Finding drugs with 23andMe is a waste of time and is not wehre they should be focusing on making money. They should be focusing on personalized medicine.

      • raddan 2 days ago

        I also have a rare genetic disorder (alpha-1 antitrypsin disorder) and discovered it using 23andMe. I am in the process of working with a pulmonologist to manage the disease, and if they had not screened me for it, I would have written off my symptoms as “just bad asthma.” Currently there is no health product that 23andMe sells that is appealing to me, but if there were, I would gladly pay. I hope they can stick it out because their DNA screening is a valuable service.

    • ZeroGravitas 2 days ago

      Others have shared some more heartwarming tales of using these services but I saw a story that in Australia a project is helping the children of sex tourists to look up their fathers via these services to get child support payments:

      https://www.abc.net.au/listen/programs/am/dna-helps-children...

      • pfannkuchen 2 days ago

        If you are sleeping with a prostitute isn’t there like an implied contract that you aren’t responsible for any resulting child? That is practically the entire purpose of prostitution.

    • elictronic 2 days ago

      One of my parents was adopted creating a much higher incentive and an increased likelihood of finding nearer relatives.

      She would not pursue out of respect to her adopted mother. Outside of this I would be in the same boat as you.

    • jvvw a day ago

      I got a photo of my great-great grandfather as a result of a DNA match as well as lots of other information about him - so I suppose it depends if that sort thing interests you or not.

    • edgyquant 2 days ago

      Family is extremely important to most people

    • JamesSwift 2 days ago

      I used ancestry.com to help locate a "long lost sibling" of my in laws. They were able to partly rekindle a relationship after decades apart.

    • vintermann 2 days ago

      Not everyone is interested in genealogy, that's up to them, but to those of us who are, finding an unknown nth cousin may be worth a lot to untangle the lives of our ancestors, write the stories of our families, and find out where we come from, in a far wider sense than merely the genetic one.

      But Ancestry is a roach motel. Of all sites that sell user-contributed data back to their users, and they're all scummy, I don't know any which are more scummy than Ancestry and MyHeritage.

    • zooq_ai 2 days ago

      just because you are anti-social, doesn't mean the general public are

    • _DeadFred_ 2 days ago

      I've found it extremely interesting. It's brought me greater insight into my grandfather I knew nothing about, and even the (very few) family traditions/recipes that have come down to me. It's made the world feel smaller and more connected, seeing actual relatives in all of these far off places, in the kind of way I always HOPED the internet would bring interconnectedness.

      I think it's inherently human to want to understand who we are and where come from. Especially for someone like me in the USA. How did my people end up here?

    • tylergetsay 2 days ago

      I think a more common use case might be finding siblings if your adopted, or trying to reengage with your roots if you were say a member of an indian tribe or native hawaiian.

      I have a family member who is retired and has taken up geneology as a hobby, she has connected our family history really far back. Not my cup of tea personally but I can see the appeal, its like a treasure hunt. She has traveled to go to old libraries and dig up newspaper archives.

      • creshal 2 days ago

        Another common use case is "I wonder where all my family went after $War"; some families are still trying to figure out where their parents' families ended up at after WW2, or if they survived at all.

    • RicoElectrico 2 days ago

      Americans treat their ancestry (specifically the nations they come from) almost like zodiac signs. This is meme material (e.g. Plastic Paddies, Plywood Poles etc.)

      • marxisttemp 2 days ago

        Zodiac signs is a good way of putting it.

        I think as a country of immigrants—or colonizers—we all feel desperate for some sense of personal history and identity.

    • mensetmanusman 2 days ago

      It’s also helping children figure out who their bio dad is since most aren’t involved in their kids lives these days.

  • fph 2 days ago

    It's sad that we have come to a point where people frown upon a company that makes a product and sells it, without luring their customers in with monthly subscriptions.

  • paganel 2 days ago

    I’m on mobile and too lazy to check, but is ancestry.com related in any way to Jehovah’a Witnesses? I’m asking because at some point I was online searching for any info about the Russian Imperial census held at the end the 1890s and, to my surprise, the JW website had all the info in there (or at least almost all the info on the region I was interested in, Kherson). And then I found out that this sort of stuff is right down JW’s alley for some religion-related reason, good for them.

    • AlexandrB 2 days ago

      Not Jehova's witnesses but the founders are Mormon and the company operates out of Utah.

    • thaumasiotes 2 days ago

      > at some point I was online searching for any info about the Russian Imperial census held at the end the 1890s

      Any idea where I might find a list of Russian navy officers from then or the following decades?

  • rocho 2 days ago

    But a genetic analysis to find your "roots" is also something you do once. Does Ancestry have subscriptions for that?

    • punchmesan 2 days ago

      Ancestry does more than genetic analysis. Their claim to fame is their tools to search through old public records to help one build their genealogy/family tree.

  • datavirtue 2 days ago

    They should do a social media AI play where they just friend everyone for you.

brookst 3 days ago

To complete the data, the company is trading at $0.34/share, so while $0.40 is a bit lower than the typical 20% premium (~$0.41), I'm not sure it counts as "lowball". It's a typical premium over market cap.

Is there any reason to think the company is worth $4.7B or whatever ($9.30/share)? If so the stock is a steal at its current price and we should all buy lots. But can the market be THAT wrong?

  • austhrow743 3 days ago

    My take on their comment was that it should be worth many billions if it was being run effectively but that it's not.

    That doesn't mean the market is wrong, it means the market thinks it will continue to be run ineffectively.

    • mtkd 2 days ago

      If someone wants to delist and have equity/executive control -- there is little minority shareholders can do to prevent it in practice

      The controlling interest can just hire incompetent ops heads and side-line competent ones for a few quarters ... slowwalk any events that could increase value

      The board resigning likely helps the plan

      Fair chance future offers will get worse the longer it goes on

    • s1artibartfast 3 days ago

      if that is the case, isnt paying stockholders 20% over value a pretty good deal, and not a ripoff?

      It seems like there are contradictory facts being claimed: that the price to go private is a lowball, and that the current price is accurate.

      • austhrow743 3 days ago

        If the one offering 20% over listed price is the one causing the listed price to be far more than 20% below what the company could be worth if they were running it properly, most people would consider that to be a ripoff.

        • s1artibartfast 2 days ago

          That seems like conspiracy thinking. The stockholders own part of the company with current management, not some hypothetical alternative.

          If they sell, they are selling a stake in the real company as it exists, not the alternate reality one.

          Think of a more relatable example. . A rental house with crazy tenants sells for less than a vacant one.

          If you buy or own a stake in a business that is controlled by poor managers, you are lucky to sell for a 20% premium.

      • busterarm 3 days ago

        As a sale, yes, but to take it private no. After taking the company private they could then manage the company properly and make all of the upside, completely screwing over the shareholders who they bought out.

        Honestly that's borderline fraud.

  • throwawayffffas 3 days ago

    The resignation implication is that the CEO is running the company to the ground.

    The comment further implies this is on purpose in order to buy the company cheaply.

    • brookst 2 days ago

      Since CEOs typically own a lot of stock and are compensated for performance, doesn’t that seem like a strange theory? Intentionally destroying a company you run and own shares in so you can buy more shares seems like a really complicated and high risk strategy compared to just running it well, making a fortune, and getting an even bigger CEO gig.

      • gojomo 2 days ago

        I don't think you're properly modeling a truly ambitious person whose basic needs are already fully-met for life.

        Anne Wojicki is already sufficiently wealthy – net worth $150m+? – that maybe what really interests her is playing hardball for (say) $10B+ instead of just a few hundred million more? Or for the control & glory of shepherding forward some breakthrough cancer treatments that the other investors might simply treat as financial options to sell early?

        And, perhaps she's got the votes & de facto IP control & legal budget to think she's got a good chance of winning, and even a loss can't cut her out?

        Isn't this just bare-knuckle "founder mode"?

      • svnt 2 days ago

        The viability and profitability of the strategy depend critically on the ownership and control position of the CEO. Many CEOs do not have all that much stock, in percentage terms. If they have access to resources and sufficient board control they could privatize, reset the cap table, and reorganize.

        If they were to reorganize first and produce a company worth as much as its competitors, they only get eg 5% of eg 30B, which after taxes makes them maybe a billionaire. Reorg and do the same thing and they could be looking at control and $10-20B.

        Where tens of billions of dollars are involved, “really complicated” and “high risk” plays are basically table stakes.

      • [removed] 2 days ago
        [deleted]
      • error_logic 2 days ago

        Was that not a strategy successfully employed by Ford to edge out other investors?

      • vintermann 2 days ago

        Honestly, it would be more surprising to me if this sort of thing never happened. In politics it happens fairly regularly (entryism, agent provocateurs etc.) so why wouldn't it happen in business? It would take even less coordination, all it would take is a bit of personal loyalty between top leaders which - shock and horror! - didn't disappear when one of them changed company.

    • saghm 3 days ago

      I'm confused by this; isn't the board of directors who picks the CEO? Or are they locked in for some period of time and don't want to wait around?

      • soganess 3 days ago

        I don't know the first thing wrt how 23andMe has its governance and voting setup, but the letter seems to imply the CEO has majority power or, at least, a large enough plurality that it is a one-person-show:

        > Because of that difference and because of your concentrated voting power, we believe that it is in the best interests of the Company’s shareholders that we resign

        EDIT: But that brings up a different question: If you have majority voting power, why try to take the company private (as it has been suggested by others here)?

      • zerocrates 2 days ago

        The CEO owns 49% of the voting power so the board is pretty much toothless. Facing a direct conflict with her, loudly resigning is probably about the best they could do.

        • LarsDu88 2 days ago

          It's the ONLY thing they could do.

          CEO Founder has a direct conflict of interest with shareholders...

  • HWR_14 3 days ago

    > can the market be THAT wrong?

    Yes. Historic examples abound of the market being that wrong. People can and have made fortunes by finding those opportunities.

    Which is different from is the market that wrong in this case?

  • bboygravity 3 days ago

    Yes. The market can be THAT wrong, not just wrong but also corrupt and broken (on purpose).

    Hint: regulatory crisis, Suzanne Trimbath, failure to deliver shares, naked shorting, Tesla shortsqueeze, VW shortsqueeze, UBS's and Swiss gov's 50 year secret, etc.

    • kortilla 3 days ago

      You’re kinda all over the place with your “hints”. Naked shorting and failure to deliver shares have zero relationship to setting a bid price people are willing to buy at.

      Shortsqueezes are cases of driving prices up because shares are hard to get and shorts need to cover. Again, not related to the best offer being too low.

      Secrets are also dumb examples because that’s hidden information.

      What we’re talking about here is the valuation with all of the public information available now. Nobody of any relevant market size seems to agree that it should be $9/share.

      • IG_Semmelweiss 2 days ago

        I'm willing to grant some leeway on a shortsqueeze.

        If one is willing to grant that the stock "price" for a liquid listing, is the price for a stock at any given time, then you could argue the markets are "wrong" insofar that the price quoted in the open market, is absolutely not the correct price - regardless of the excuse of a short squeeze.

        • kortilla 2 days ago

          They are not the same because without available shares to short its very easy to recognize there is stuff overpriced in the market and the open market can’t do anything about it because the sellers are limited and they control the ask.

          This is absolutely not true of a price that’s “too low”. Anyone, including you, can go hit those asking prices and start to load up. There is also capped downsize risk (as opposed to uncontrolled risk in a short).

          This is all to say that it’s possible that company could be worth $9-10/share, but based on all of the information publicly available today, there are effectively tens of thousands of people each swinging billions in capital than are parking it in stuff providing 5% return rather than the 20000% you suggest is there.

          So this tells me that you are just much more hopeful for the future of the company than the current financial projections and prospects support.

    • vkou 2 days ago

      That's word salad randomly picked from the small book of 'scary words from finance', but you haven't explained what the actual problem is.

    • OrigamiPastrami 3 days ago

      You actually think people are familiar with most, if any, of your hints? You mention Susanne Trimbath like most people have any idea who she is. If you construct an argument instead of throwing out a buzzword salad of ideas, people are more likely to listen to you.

justinclift 3 days ago

> Literally just one day after 23andMe presented positive phase 2 clinical results for two anti-cancer drugs ...

That's not entirely correct. It was two days after. ;)

https://investors.23andme.com/news-releases/news-release-det...

There's also this, on the same day:

https://investors.23andme.com/news-releases/news-release-det...

  • LarsDu88 3 days ago

    I stand corrected. Well maybe the board took a day to get together and draft the letter. One of the board members Neal Mohan has to stand before a judge in Google's current anti-trust trial. No doubt he has no time for this stuff.

nextos 3 days ago

Was the plan all the time to go B2B (drug development) and they just used B2C (selling SNP kits) to hoard samples?

Even considering all FDA limitations, I cannot understand how bad their genetic risk scores are.

They have talent, they have lots of customers and data. This is a position other companies, like deCODE, would have killed to be in.

  • LarsDu88 3 days ago

    If the board is resigning, and the company is selling DNA kits, running a telemedicine operation, selling pharmceuticals online AND developing cancer drugs at a 180 million dollar market cap...

    It's quite possible there was no plan at all...

    • AlbertCory 3 days ago

      I saw Ann when she gave a talk at Google (that was when she was still married to Sergey). They had spit cups we could use if we wanted our DNA sequenced. I didn't.

      Their business plan was straight out of South Park:

      1. Collect lots of DNA

      2. ??????

      3. Profit!!

      • marcinzm 2 days ago

        Isn't that the case for almost every single VC backed startup?

        • hennell 2 days ago

          s/dna/data and you're pretty much any tech business.

    • burningChrome 3 days ago

      >>> selling pharmceuticals online

      That would explain them selling 5 million users DNA information to GSK.

      Earlier this summer, the often-scrutinized at-home genetic testing company 23andMe sold genetic data from five million customers to the pharmaceutical company GlaxoSmithKline (GSK). This surprised a lot of their customers who had forgotten that they consented to this when they signed up for the service.

      https://cglife.com/blog/23andme-sold-your-genetic-data-to-gs...

      • Y_Y 2 days ago

        https://investors.23andme.com/news-releases/news-release-det...

        This is complicated. The don't just zip up all the customer data and send it over, at least they say that they run aggregated queries for GSK and just tell them the answer. But then they say that the data is "anonymized" before this, which seems unnecessary and impossible.

        Imho it's very difficult to anonymize any data, and especially something like DNA. Without an external audit amd some mathematical guarantee (e.g. differntial privacy) I work on the assumption that they do the bare minimum to pass legal muster but anyone who made the effort could confidently associate the data with real people after the fact.

      • LarsDu88 2 days ago

        OP here. These headlines are simply exaggerated. 23andme sells mostly anonymous aggregated GWAS mapping results to companies like GSK as far as I'm aware

    • blitzar 2 days ago

      Pivot to Blockchain AI in 3 ... 2 ... 1 ...

  • dekhn 3 days ago

    Anne's plan from the very beginning was to capitalize on the value of the human genome in drug development and medical testing. Frankly everything you need to know about the idea behind the company before its various pitfalls and pivots is here (2007): https://web.archive.org/web/20140312001152/http://www.wired....

    (sorry, it takes a while to load but wired has killed most of their long-term links)

    IMHO she and Avey were just naive about the actual science and business of using genomic information for drug discovery. Remember, around the time the company started, the human genome had only recently been sequenced and Craig Venter was trying to capitalize on that, and lots of folks figured it would quickly turn into a multi-billion dollar market.

    On the other hand, the product is quite good at finding relatives (identity by descent) and to be honest I wish they'd run 23&me as just that service, without the medical angle. My father did 23&Me mainly to figure out more about his ancestry, but also it helped a number of children conceived via IVF (he had provided a sample for fertility testing many years before) identify and contact him (I can't even imagine what the experience was like; to me, it's just a bunch of half-siblings I didn't know about)

    • Supernaut 2 days ago

      > it helped a number of children conceived via IVF (he had provided a sample for fertility testing many years before) identify and contact him

      Wait, so a sample he submitted for fertility testing was used to impregnate a number of women? Without his knowledge?

      • dekhn 2 days ago

        That's a good question- I think he signed a consent form that would have allowed additional research on his donations. TBH my dad was suprised but pleased by the outcome.

        • consteval 2 days ago

          I'm glad your dad was happy about it, but it does kind of speak to the potential dangers of giving out your DNA (which is concerns many have around 23andMe).

    • LarsDu88 3 days ago

      Funny enough, the entire 23andMe subreddit is purely about ancestry results, but the company marketing is oriented around health.

    • dragonwriter 2 days ago

      > Remember, around the time the company started, the human genome had only recently been sequenced and Craig Venter was trying to capitalize on that, and lots of folks figured it would quickly turn into a multi-billion dollar market.

      To be fair, a lot of the potential easy money in that market was erased two years after 23andMe was founded when Congress passed the Genetic Information Nondiscrimination Act.

  • bpodgursky 3 days ago

    It's culturally broken. They have talent but none of the talent ships products that consumers ever see.

LeanderK 3 days ago

what am I missing? Isn't this good news (the positive phase 2 results)?

  • firejake308 3 days ago

    Yes, but the CEO was trying to take those profits for herself by biding to take the company private, which the Board of Directors refused to put up with

    • [removed] 3 days ago
      [deleted]
  • ilamont 3 days ago

    Phase 2 is not a slam dunk. Much more work remains, and under the guidance of a CEO who has zero drug development experience and a track record of management incompetence:

    - lying about growth

    - pushing out the cofounder

    - never making a profit

    - hack that went undiscovered for months

    About the only area she's had success is raising money and that's in large part thanks to being a member of the Silicon Valley elite.

    • LarsDu88 a day ago

      Mathematically, the chance of a drug going from phase 2 to phase 3 is roughly 30%

      This can be modeled with a binomial distribution as 1-probability of both failing. That comes out to 1-(.7^2) which is 51% of at least one drug reaching phase 3.

      There is literally a coin flip chance the company will reach the stage where there is another coin flip it will be worth billions (I believe ~50% of phase 3 drugs go to market), but thanks to the messaging of the CEO, right now it seems like there is a near 0% chance investors (which include former company employees) would benefit from this.

    • dekhn 3 days ago

      you left out "ignored a letter from the FDA telling them to shut down"

    • gosub100 2 days ago

      Could the hack have been part of the plan all along to depress the share price to make for a cheap buy-out?

  • maxerickson 3 days ago

    The board is making it clear that they don't think the CEO/largest shareholder is making good on their duty (as CEO) to the other shareholders.

    "Good luck ......" or so.

hackernewds 3 days ago

why are these companies worth so much, if not for sneakily monetizing and selling their user's most personal data?

  • jheriko 2 days ago

    in some cases the value doesn't really exist. if someone owns 75% of a company from the founding, and they sell 25% for $100000 then its worth $400000 in a valuation whether the starting capital was $1000000 or $1

    selling the smallest amount of share possible for the highest amount you can get can easily balloon the "paper" value of a company, but that money doesn't really exist anywhere.

    it will change when things go public, but often the initial price is based on some vapourous guess like this...

  • llm_nerd 3 days ago

    The plan was always that DNA could be use for medical research, which is enormously valuable.

    And given that 23andme currently has a market cap 1/20th DJT (Trump Media & Technology Group Corp) -- a firm that makes less revenue than a variety store yet has huge losses -- I wouldn't really say it's "worth so much".

    • elictronic 3 days ago

      I wouldn’t compare any stock to DJT. MAGA voters value signaling, institutional investors playing games, foreign governments laundering money to the campaign, primary shareholder prepping for exit.

      The companies actual revenue has zero impact and never will. Treat DJT like a NFT and it makes a ton of sense.

      • JumpCrisscross 3 days ago

        > wouldn’t compare any stock to DJT. MAGA voters value signaling, institutional investors playing games, foreign governments laundering money to the campaign, primary shareholder prepping for exit

        You’re right for the wrong reasons. (EDIT: I'm wrong for no reason.)

        Dow Jones is obsolete [1]. Its value is in its brand, i.e. other people look at it.

        The other factors you mention are noise. Relevant to a trader or market maker with infintessimal time horizons. But irrelevant to an investor thinking even in months. The American markets are simply too deep. The totality of dollars at work by MAGA voters, game-playing hedge funds and money launderers--through the stock market--is negligible. (Lots of political tea-leave reading funds have been attempted. Zero prevail.)

        [1] https://retirementresearcher.com/why-the-dow-doesnt-work/

    • LarsDu88 3 days ago

      I thought DJT is just a huge foreign influence campaign to get financial leverage over the "future US president". Can't compare the two.

    • JCharante 2 days ago

      > The plan was always that DNA could be use for medical research, which is enormously valuable.

      Couldn't one just pull a worldcoin and give people $5 for a cheek swab?

    • jajko 2 days ago

      Ask not how it can be used, but rather how it will be misused, generating various profits for owners of the data down the line. So far targeted ad business takes the cake, I'd expect DNA profiling and corresponding credit/social score, insurance premiums and recruiting score coming eventually.

      I can't believe how people can be naive over and over.

edm0nd 2 days ago

Anne Wojcicki is also the exwife of billionaire Google founder Sergey Brin.

I have always felt as if 23andMe was just her pet lil project and it doesn't matter if its ever profitable or not.

TheRealPomax 3 days ago

"closest competitor" really doesn't mean anything here. That's like calling a failing burger joint in a random US city a "competitor of McDonalds". No they're not.

phonon 2 days ago

So why doesn't Ancestry/Blackstone buy out 23andMe? Antitrust? Shareholder control issues?

  • ac29 2 days ago

    They are deeply unprofitable and always have been. Looking at FY24, they spent $4 for every $1 in revenue.

zombiwoof 2 days ago

Luck and being in the right place at the right time can’t make a CEO. Anne is a terrible CEO

darby_nine 2 days ago

> Feels like the main thing holding this company back is the CEO

Use has also dropped, no? There's serious questions about long term revenue generation. Ancestry.com doesn't require selling your genetic code to collaborate on geneology.

toomuchtodo 3 days ago

Does the corporate structure support a hostile takeover? This would enable purging management and re-staffing with competent leadership.

  • LarsDu88 3 days ago

    Virtually impossible as Anne Wojcicki holds 20% of the outstanding shares and 49% of the voting power of total outstanding shares. That's essentially dictator-level power over the company. I believe the next largest shareholder is Richard Branson. Source: https://investors.23andme.com/news-releases/news-release-det...

    Despite the promising drug development news, the CEO signaled last month that she was willing to let public investors get hosed, with a low ball take-private offer of $0.40/share. I believe this pissed both public investors and the board members off. I'm not sure if the positive phase 2 results were icing on the cake.

    Quite honestly this company is a ripe target for acquisition by a biopharma company like GSK or Roche.

    • toomuchtodo 3 days ago

      Regrettable. I suppose the alternative path is to let them go bankrupt and to get bought out of bankruptcy. That should wipe out all equity holders. If you’re a potential bidder, get your financing or cash lined up.

      • javierluraschi 3 days ago

        She (the CEO) has a fiduciary duty to act in the best interests of the company and its shareholders. Intentionally driving a company into bankruptcy for personal gain is a massive breach of that duty and opens her up to all kinds of legal trouble. So I would think that's a very bad idea.

zzleeper 3 days ago

So sad that Blackstone bought ancestry.. newspapers.com is a really nice tool for researchers (and most things that get touched by PE end up enshittified)

  • myth_drannon 3 days ago

    Probably that's why Myheritage started oldnews.com... Although MH was also bought by PE

  • AlbertCory 3 days ago

    I suppose I should know this: who owns newspapers.com? What's the connection?

    • LarsDu88 3 days ago

      Ancestry owns newspapers.com

      A lot of Ancestry.com and AncestryDNA was founded to support the Mormon belief that the LDS church can posthumously baptize ancestors of living individuals into the church under the belief that many deceased individuals were not alive to hear the gospel of Joseph Smith.

      Thus the massive data collection effort for historical information like newpaper articles from this century and the last.

      • _DeadFred_ 2 days ago

        If you are in Salt Lake go check out the computers in the big fancy temple temple there, they used to help you research ancestry stuff. Though all that could have been because we were there on some sort of VIP thing and it might not be open to the public. Interesting side, it's missionaries there that help you. Only instead of young men shipped out into the world, it was attractive young women on missionary to the temple from all over the world.

      • myth_drannon 3 days ago

        I think they stopped doing it. Jewish organizations were absolutely livid once they found out they were baptizing Holocaust victims.

dyauspitr 3 days ago

Why is she even the CEO? Was she placed there by Google once they bought 23andme?

  • LarsDu88 3 days ago

    She founded the company 18 years ago. Google invested like <$10 million at the beginning and pulled out just earlier this year.

  • vlovich123 3 days ago

    When did that happen? A founder was married to Sergei Brin for 8 years but that’s it.

  • hackernewds 3 days ago

    They haven't bought 23andme. but there is overlap, Anne was the former CEO of YouTube and wife of Sergey Brin

    • LarsDu88 3 days ago

      Anne's sister Susan, who died a month ago of lung cancer was CEO of YouTube. Susan was the person who advocated Google acquire YouTube in the first place.

      Google was founded in the garage of Anne and Susan's childhood home. Anne was married to Sergei until he had an affair.

      One of the board members of 23andMe is Neal Mohan who is the current CEO of YouTube.