Comment by ilamont
Phase 2 is not a slam dunk. Much more work remains, and under the guidance of a CEO who has zero drug development experience and a track record of management incompetence:
- lying about growth
- pushing out the cofounder
- never making a profit
- hack that went undiscovered for months
About the only area she's had success is raising money and that's in large part thanks to being a member of the Silicon Valley elite.
Mathematically, the chance of a drug going from phase 2 to phase 3 is roughly 30%
This can be modeled with a binomial distribution as 1-probability of both failing. That comes out to 1-(.7^2) which is 51% of at least one drug reaching phase 3.
There is literally a coin flip chance the company will reach the stage where there is another coin flip it will be worth billions (I believe ~50% of phase 3 drugs go to market), but thanks to the messaging of the CEO, right now it seems like there is a near 0% chance investors (which include former company employees) would benefit from this.