Comment by nashashmi

Comment by nashashmi 4 days ago

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Total cost of ownership is 4 years x $15k-$25k (for a cheap public school) + missed income from working that same four years ($35k x 4 years). This is equal to $220k +/- $20k of lost money.

Now compare this to income differential. Starting grad income is $80k(?). At 4% raise per year compared to 3.5% raise per year for a non-college employee. Over 43 years.

My math comes out to the college grad is still making more money despite the initial sunk cost.

naet 3 days ago

Anecdotally my wife came very close to finishing a 4 year degree but ultimately did not for various reasons (she comes from a very disadvantaged family...) and not having one has been a major burden or blocker for her pursuing all kinds of jobs. I am hoping to help her finish, but it is hard to restart later in life and lots of past credits will probably be lost or not count anymore due to various academic bureaucracy roadblocks.

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  • viccis 3 days ago

    Yep, I've seen this with a lot of my friends who did a similar thing. HR employees screening you out alone is a huge problem.

    I have some middle and upper middle class gen X and older friends giving their children TERRIBLE advice about how degrees aren't worth it anymore and you get more out of getting started in your career ASAP than spending 4 years in school. The problem is that a BS now is like a high school diploma when they grew up, and if you don't have one, then in all likelihood, you will struggle to not be downwardly mobile, as it's the new middle class gatekeeping tool.

    People should NOT listen to anyone over 45-50 or so who tells them college isn't necessary. Those people grew up in a world that no longer exists.

    Another example of bad gen X / boomer advice is to knock out core credits in community college and transfer to university later. They don't understand that your only shot at getting significant scholarships and financial aid is when you enter as a 1st time freshman. I know someone with brilliant kids who made National Merit Scholar this year who is already setting their kids aims low by advising them to do this when there are so many good universities, both private and state, where their kids have a good shot at getting a full ride.

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    • jswelker 3 days ago

      > knock out core credits in community college

      The correct way to do it is to utilize high school dual credit or dual enrollment offerings. Then you can shave off a year or two of college but still be eligible for freshman scholarships. Often cheaper than community college too.

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    • jghn 3 days ago

      > The problem is that a BS now is like a high school diploma when they grew up

      > gen X / boomer

      Those 2 generations aren't even remotely close in terms of shared experience of what high school diploma was like when they grew up.

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      • viccis 3 days ago

        Well that specific example paragraph was about financial aid, not the value of a high school diploma, so I fail to see your point.

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    • nebula8804 3 days ago

      >Another example of bad gen X / boomer advice is to knock out core credits in community college and transfer to university later. They don't understand that your only shot at getting significant scholarships and financial aid is when you enter as a 1st time freshman. I know someone with brilliant kids who made National Merit Scholar this year who is already setting their kids aims low by advising them to do this when there are so many good universities, both private and state, where their kids have a good shot at getting a full ride.

      I'll have to push back on this. I'll give NJ as an example but other states have similar systems. In NJ If you are in the top 15% of your graduating school you are covered for full tuition provided for the first two years at community college. You are also given a guaranteed spot at whatever public college/program you want. (EDIT: I am not sure if this is still the case im trying to sift through the documentation but now I think it may also require minimum GPA in CC) Imagine getting that university degree and starting your professional career with potentially 0 debt.

      Furthermore a variation of this program extends to families making less than 65k. If you meet that criteria. The community college degree is 0$. From there you are given a course schedule that if you follow will transfer 1:1 to a university and if you do well academically there you can be eligible for reduced or waived tuition at the public college of your choosing. This system helps people who did poorly in high school or just didnt make the cut aid wise get a second chance at tuition free college.

      If you make more than 65k, you still get reduced tuition on some sliding scale. And again excellent grades translates to more savings.

      At least for NJ, Community college really sets many people up for an excellent start in their career by not having any college debt.

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      • viccis 3 days ago

        Many private colleges like Rice cover 100% of costs for all students with parents under a fairly high salary. Almost 40% of MIT students have financial aid that's equal or greater than their tuition. This is starting to get more and more common for elite colleges and universities.

        I got a full ride plus stipend to a pretty good but not great school, but one of the things I wish my parents pushed me on harder was applying to schools like MIT where I didn't bother applying because I didn't want to be saddled with debt. This was a couple decades back, and it's so much easier to get a full ride now if you can make it in (admittedly much harder now).

        My point isn't to write off community college. It's that a talented and accomplished high schooler should set their sights higher because the old idea that all these elite colleges are unaffordable is rapidly changing.

        Also, I am not sure if you know people taking CC courses recently, but they are often taught in a way that gives you what you paid for at $0. Prerecorded canned lectures, infuriating and curiosity crushing online worksheets, etc. I know multiple people who were excited to do free CC when it was made free for older (30+) students whose academic aims were immediately stamped out within one semester because there was no college instruction. Just endless online worksheets. These things exist in other higher ed paths too, but truly not to the extent that I've witnessed.

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  • DiscourseFan 3 days ago

    And the opposite is true as well. I had a friend who had no idea how to market her labor, uncomfortable even with the idea of making a linkedin profile. She has an undergraduate degree, she did eventually find something, but it was a tiresome process. On the other hand, I had just finished a Master's degree, I had made up a linkedin profile to apply to a startup I thought looked interesting--no response, but, about a month later a recruiter messaged me on linkedin to work a short term contract that turned into the job I have now. There was practically no effort on my part for a job search.

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  • erikw 3 days ago

    Have you verified that these "academic bureaucracy roadblocks" exist? Surprisingly, I was able to pick my studies back up after almost 20 years, and not only were all of my existing credits counted, but they also exempted me from new requirements that had been added in the subsequent 20 years.

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AxiomaticSpace 3 days ago

This assumes that every college grad is guaranteed a decent starting income. It seems that on average new grads are struggling more now than they used to to get jobs in their fields, especially higher paying jobs. And that perception is probably magnified by internet horror stories such as every 3rd post on r/cscareers.

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  • nashashmi 3 days ago

    Yes this kind of math doesn’t make sense in places and industries where pay is not high and job prospects are difficult. Like liberal arts. Or third world countries.

    And that is the point: do the math that assesses the incomes correctly and many people won’t see as college as sensible for those professions.

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trashface 3 days ago

The 43 years of career is debatable. I got a CS degree in 1997 and worked for 18 years (non consecutively), but have been out of work now for several years. It's quite possible those 18 are the entirety of the earnings I will derive from my CS degree. And people today have AI pressures I didn't have. Makes the math quite a bit different.

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apparent 3 days ago

The numbers look very different for a private school, which could run up to $100k for tuition, room, and board. It is almost unimaginable that attending a private college could have a positive expected value at that cost. For one thing, the incoming students will typically have stellar credentials and abilities. This means that they would not have the average outcome of a high school grad who gets no further education.

If I were faced with spending $100k/yr for my kid to go to college, I would strongly consider offering 5 tranches of $50,000 that we would together invest in business ideas over the next 5 years. Humanities and social sciences could be learned in parallel, while trying to launch businesses that bring value to the world.

The lessons learned would not be the same as those one learns in college, and the social aspects would be very different/lacking. This would clearly not work for all teenagers, but for some, it could be a much better opportunity and use of funds.

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  • menaerus 3 days ago

    People who can afford themselves going to private schools have a reason why they prefer spending 100ks vs less. Prestige schools gets you a prestige job so "It is almost unimaginable that attending a private college could have a positive expected value at that cost" isn't necessarily true.

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    • apparent 3 days ago

      The thing is, prestige and cost do not go hand in hand. The most expensive schools are not the most prestigious. I think Vanderbilt was the first school to hit the ignominious milestone of $100,000/yr, and they're not Ivy League, Ivy+, or perhaps even Ivy++ (if such a classification existed).

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      • menaerus 2 days ago

        Yeah, ok, but this doesn't invalidate what I said above. Completing the degree with MIT, Stanford, Berkeley, and such will cost you ~$100k per year (give or take) but they will also open you a door of landing a prestigious job more easily than with the other colleges.

        Entry level salaries for most of these folks are ~$200k/yr so having a ~$400k total cost for education, even though I agree it looks totally crazy when given without the context, isn't really _that_ crazy when you put it into a perspective of total expected income.

        I think that if this hasn't been even remotely true, there would be no people taking the degrees there, no?

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        • apparent a day ago

          In general, if a student can get into MIT/Stanford, he will also have been accepted to some less-competitive universities, and likely with decent scholarship. Would it be smarter to go to MIT at full price or Northeastern on a half scholarship?

          The fact that people are still signing on the dotted line and paying for these expensive schools is a testament to the value they are perceived to convey. But as the polling shows, America is falling out of love with higher ed. Between this trend and the coming demographic trends, university admissions will get less competitive across the board in coming decades.

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blitz_skull 3 days ago

Assuming a grad income of $80k is an insane starting assumption. MAYBE you’re making that in software (good luck getting your foot in the door).

Any other industry? Biology? Social sciences? Academia? Manufacturing?

I struggle to think of anything other than finance that has a shot of STARTING at $80k. Hell I didn’t hit $80k in software industry until ~3 years in and I thought I was (I indeed WAS) very lucky.

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  • Suppafly 3 days ago

    >Assuming a grad income of $80k is an insane starting assumption.

    It doesn't really matter if you consider it to be insane. The studies on this stuff always compare averages to averages, and average college grads do better in the long run no matter how optimistically you cook the books to make the inverse seem likely.

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    • apparent 3 days ago

      > average college grads do better in the long run no matter how optimistically you cook the books to make the inverse seem likely

      This is far from true when you consider the selection bias of who goes to college, and the sheepskin effect.

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      • Suppafly a day ago

        Doesn't the so called sheepskin effect literally just reflect this fact?

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    • csomar 3 days ago

      Here is my made up guess: The average university graduate will do better without degree than the current non-grad averages.

      You are making the assumption that it all boils down to the degree (the difference in income). This can't be possible (maybe a majority of it, but not all of it). There are other factors (like being from a middle-class, higher IQ, etc.) that selects for going to Uni. and this has effect later on income.

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  • apparent 3 days ago

    Academia at $80k? After a PhD, sure. There may be some grad programs where you get a stipend north of $60k, but those are probably located in very HCoL places, so you can be assured you won't be saving anything.

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  • alephnerd 3 days ago

    Your numbers seem to be a couple years out of date, or maybe you're (no offense) living in an economic backwater like Florida where salaries are severely depressed due to the tourism effect.

    The base salaries for Entry level SWE roles are in the $80k-100k range nationally [0].

    Additionally, most finance roles start in that ranges, though high finance has starting salaries comparable to Big Tech new grad.

    Even Biotech new grad salaries tend to be in the $60k-80k range.

    Same with manufacturing engineering roles [1]

    [0] - https://www.levels.fyi/t/software-engineer/levels/entry-leve...

    [1] - https://www.salary.com/research/salary/alternate/entry-manuf...

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    • givemeethekeys 3 days ago

      > like Florida

      If Florida is "backwater", then so is most of the rest of the country outside of a handful of overpriced cities where earning 80k is required to be able to afford a room in an apartment - not the whole apartment, and certainly not buying one.

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      • alephnerd 3 days ago

        I mean yea, they absolutely are economically speaking - especially when looking at where new grad college educated jobs are located [0].

        Heck, most states have fallen into a technical recession [1]. Florida is weird simply because of how much tourism and retirement adjacent industries skew it's economy (eg. Elderly care, primary care, etc) - in fact, healthcare services (as in elderly care, hospice care, and homecare) is the only non-skilled industry that is seeing a significant expansion in the US.

        I personally along with HN, other VCs, and PE funds have been actively following the MSO space for a couple years now because of this boom.

        And I say this as someone who kinda likes Florida (Dr Philips reminds me and moreso the missus of bougie gated communities back in ASEAN - it's a nice place for us to Fat FIRE).

        [0] - https://www.axios.com/local/denver/2025/02/28/white-collar-w...

        [1] - https://www.ft.com/content/e9be3e3f-2efe-42f7-b2d2-8ab3efea2...

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saint_fiasco 3 days ago

What if you fail for whatever reason and don't finish college? Then you spent a bunch of time and money for essentially no benefit.

College will always be worth it for people who are smart and driven and hard working. But a lot of people who are not like that are nevertheless encouraged to go to college because that's what everyone does.

The change in attitude towards college by the new generation is probably a reaction to the excesses of the previous one, when even mediocre students were encouraged to take a risk they were not prepared to even evaluate, let alone take.

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nitwit005 2 days ago

This idea that a university degree gets you a higher exponent on your annual raises seems like a poor model. Many careers have an effective ceiling on possible wages, baring becoming an executive or owner of some sort.

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  • nashashmi a day ago

    I consider degrees to be a compressed delivery of 15 years of work experience into 4 years. After 15 years of work, the same pay would be given to a college grad with zero years of experience.

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rfrey 3 days ago

I'm not sure where your numbers come from. In my region job prospects are not much better for a liberal arts grad than a high school graduate, and much, much worse than someone with a trades education.

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lotsofpulp 3 days ago

> Now compare this to income differential. Starting grad income is $80k(?). At 4% raise per year compared to 3.5% raise per year for a non-college employee. Over 43 years.

I would not assume earning that much for 43 years.

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insane_dreamer 3 days ago

Are you assuming $55k salary differential? ($80k for starting graduate vs $35k for non-graduate)? That seems a bit high.

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  • nashashmi a day ago

    what would a more reasonable ratio be? I consider someone without a degree 15 years later making the same as a college grad right out of school. though at 3.5% that would come out to $58,000.

    So yeah the numbers are not the most rational. $60k would be more reasonable for a college grad.

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