Comment by thundergolfer 10 hours ago
I presume if you invest in Google you are indirectly (but significantly) invested in Waymo, like it is with Anthropic?
Waymo is the best service I've used in many, many years. The jump from Uber->Waymo is similar to the quality jump from Taxi->Uber 12 years ago, but I don't see an obvious way for Waymo to get enshittified.
Google has a $4.1T market cap.
So a $110B valuation is not currently that significant in terms of exposure. It's only 2.7% of it overall.
Fair, though my guess is that the growth rate of Waymo's market cap will far exceed Google's as Waymo scales. I wish I could invest in Waymo, so I'll take that 2.7% exposure.
> I don't see an obvious way for Waymo to get enshittified.
Oh ye of little faith! Here are some ideas off the top of my head, I am sure the suits at Google already have a bigger list.
* Ads in vehicle
* Adjust route so you see partner companies or billboards
* Offering alternative destinations (I see you are going to Burger King, would you rather go to our partner McDonalds?)
* Listening to conversations in car
* Selling ride data.The ads will be awful, because you’re effectively captive. You only control the volume and screen if they let you.
Finally, a justification for owning an Apple Vision Pro.
Ads in vehicles are a sure thing. Also a sure thing you'll be able to pay a little extra to turn them off, which is basically just the full price of the trip unsubsidized by ads.
It'll be up to you, just like whether you want your Netflix cheaper with ads, or more expensive but without.
I see that choice as a good thing.
The rest of your suggestions are incredibly unlikely. Google doesn't even scan your Gmail anymore, you think they're going to create a privacy scandal by listening to your conversations? And they certainly don't sell your Maps timeline which is far more valuable than just a few car trips, so why on earth would they do that with Waymo? Nor does Google Maps offer to send you to Burger King when you hit directions for McDonald's. And taking a longer route that wastes time, battery and money, on the chance you'll be looking out the window to see a billboard rather than looking at your phone, doesn't make sense at all.
Don't forget:
* Stop doing any meaningful in-person inspection of the vehicle to ensure that it is in good condition before joining the network
* Stop requiring cars to be <= 4 years old
* (Seemingly) stop requiring drivers to maintain trunk space free for passengers' luggage
They already will be selling your ride data and there is no way they could monitor conversations in the car for commercial purposes (at least in Western countries).
Ads in cars, partnerships with alternative destinations, etc. definitely would feel like enshitification for a demographic comparable to the hacker news one here. But these are all per session/user settings just like most of us have a paid Spotify account and never see advertising and those who don't get a very different monetized experience.
What is exciting about monetization like this is the possibility for rides to become very cheap or even free. If my dentist offers free rides to the office in return for my loyalty, I'm quite happy to take that.
> If my dentist offers free rides to the office in return for my loyalty, I'm quite happy to take that.
That's actually a really interesting angle. The same way businesses often provide free parking now... what if they start providing free self-driving round trips?
E.g. spend $75 or more at Whole Foods, and get free round-trip up to 20 miles or something. Especially for bulky items like groceries where a car makes a big difference, I can totally see that becoming standard. Home Depot too. Plus entertainment like amusement parks, movie theaters, spas...
It makes particular sense for vertically integrated conglomerates like Amazon-Whole Foods which owns Zoox.
I buy Whole Foods French fries shipped to the store via Amazon logistics and purchase those at Amazon owned Whole Foods, at a discount via my Prime membership on my Amazon credit card which is processed on AWS infrastructure and I ride home on an Amazon owned Zoox that also runs on AWS infrastructure.
Amazon owns so much of the profit margin across that stack that they can afford to give rides away for example.
> there is no way they could monitor conversations in the car for commercial purposes (at least in Western countries)
people used to feel that way about search queries, email (gmail) and IP laws (LLM training).
> What is exciting about monetization like this is the possibility for rides to become very cheap or even free. If my dentist offers free rides to the office in return for my loyalty, I'm quite happy to take that.
this won't happen. alphabet will collect on both ends.
> and there is no way they could monitor conversations in the car for commercial purposes (at least in Western countries).
Why not? You can consent to having your audio recorded. They can even offer a higher “private” price and a lower “ad supported” price. I write “private” because I assume the microphones will always be listening no matter which price you pay.
Rough figures:
As a plasma donor you can earn $30-$70 per session for 800 ml. Let's call it $50. A session takes about 90 minutes, or 533 ml/hour, and you make $33/hour
Waymo charges $0.50 - $1.00 per mile. Let's use the high end.
To break even, your Waymo will need to consume < $33/hour, or < 33 mph. That's not bad!
If you go any faster, you won't be able to extract enough plasma in the same amount of time.
You really think ads in vehicle are not coming? You’re being naive if you think that.
Also, cheap rides cut into stocks margins. That won’t fly by investors either. These companies are not charities. They are in the business of maximizing profits. We lost “don’t be evil” over a decade ago.
The obvious way such services enshittify is to become a monopoly by pushing everyone else out, then cranking up the prices (and lowering quality, e.g. by not cleaning the vehicles, longer wait times for better utilization, etc.)
This is Google you're talking about. They're an ads+AI company. They'll figure out a way to enshittify, even if it's not obvious.
"Please watch these ads before we start the ride. Any attempt to not look at the ads by looking away from the screen or closing your eyes will automatically cancel the ride."
> but I don't see an obvious way for Waymo to get enshittified
My guess is that once Waymo starts to extremely take off, law makers in various cities will start to pass laws to ban them or the number of regulations will make it impossible to run at a profit. This will almost certainly happen. It will disproportionately impact an entire segment of the population and will put them out of work.
No they won't. The product is so outrageously superior on every dimension to the status quo that municipalities will figure out whatever they need to in order to accommodate them.
You think the folks on City Council enjoy chauffeuring their own children around and will block a solution to it?
Yes. It's already happening
https://www.reddit.com/r/Minneapolis/comments/1pdzd2f/some_m...
In Virginia too, proposed in HB1124:
> The bill prohibits the use of autonomous vehicles as motor carriers of passengers or property without a human operator who (i) meets any state and federal qualifications for the operation of an autonomous vehicle; (ii) is physically present in such autonomous vehicle; and (iii) has the ability to monitor the performance of such vehicle and intervene in the operation of such vehicle, including operating such vehicle without the use of the automated driving system and stopping and turning off such vehicle if necessary.
Uber and Lyft operated partially or outright illegally in many places while negotiating with governments. They also had a far superior product. Just like they fought the existing taxi companies, Waymo will have to fight against Uber and Lyft's lawyers, who are probably better funded and have learned to become better entrenched in governments.
Wait till you see the showdown that's building up in NYC.
Mamdani, the new nyc mayor, has been a long time friend and advocate for NYC taxi workers alliance. He even participated in a hunger strike with them in 2021.
Waymo is right now starting the wheels turning on getting NYC permits, but taxi workers have already made their (obvious) stance clear: No Waymos.
This video is very apt: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=_tjZchYXMmA Australian Taxpayers' Alliance - "ALL Obsolete Industries Deserve The Taxi Bailout!" (1m38s) [2015-12-13]
> law makers in various cities will start to pass laws to ban them or the number of regulations will make it impossible to run at a profit. This will almost certainly happen
No they won’t. And Waymo’s playbook would be Uber’s if they did: preëmpt at the state and federal levels.
Google's marketcap moves by Waymo's entire marketcap in a single day.