Comment by hex4def6

Comment by hex4def6 18 hours ago

199 replies

> We used to have a training ground for junior engineers, but now AI is increasingly automating away that work. Both studies I referenced above cited the same thing - AI is getting good at automating junior work while only augmenting senior work. So the evidence doesn’t show that AI is going to replace everyone; it’s just removing the apprenticeship ladder.

Was having a discussion the other day with someone, and we came to the same conclusion. You used to be able to make yourself useful by doing the easy / annoying tasks that had to be done, but more senior people didn't want to waste time dealing with. In exchange you got on-the-job experience, until you were able to handle more complex tasks and grow your skill set. AI means that those 'easy' tasks can be automated away, so there's less immediate value in hiring a new grad.

I feel the effects of this are going to take a while to be felt (5 years?); mid-level -> senior-level transitions will leave a hole behind that can't be filled internally. It's almost like the aftermath of a war killing off 18-30 year olds leaving a demographic hole, or the effect of covid on education for certain age ranges.

strickjb9 18 hours ago

Adding to this: it's not just that the apprenticeship ladder is gone—it's that nobody wants to deal with juniors who spit out AI code they don't really understand.

In the past, a junior would write bad code and you'd work with them to make it better. Now I just assume they're taking my feedback and feeding it right back to the LLM. Ends up taking more of my time than if I'd done it myself. The whole mentorship thing breaks down when you're basically collaborating with a model through a proxy.

I think highly motivated juniors who actually want to learn are still valuable. But it's hard to get past "why bother mentoring when I could just use AI directly?"

I don't have answers here. Just thinking maybe we're not seeing the end of software engineering for those of us already in it—but the door might be closing for anyone trying to come up behind us.

  • shagie 17 hours ago

    > Now I just assume they're taking my feedback and feeding it right back to the LLM.

    This is especially annoying when you get back a response in a PR "Yes, you're right. I have pushed the fixes you suggested."

    Part of the challenge (and I don't have an answer either) is there are some juniors who use AI to assist... and some who use it to delegate all of their work to.

    It is especially frustrating that the second group doesn't become much more than a proxy for an LLM.

    New juniors can progress in software engineering - but they have to take the road of disciplined use of AI and make sure that they're learning the material rather than delegating all their work to it... and that delegating work is very tempting... especially if that's what they did in college.

    • johnnyanmac 13 hours ago

      I must ask once again why we are having these 5+ round interview cycles and we aren't able to filter for qualities that the work requires of its talent. What are all those rounds for if we're getting engineers who aren't as valued for the team's needs at the end of the pipeline?

      • getnormality 12 hours ago

        There's no fix for this problem in hiring upfront. Anyone can cram and fake if they expect a gravy train on the other end. If you want people to work after they're hired, you have to be able to give direct negative feedback, and if that doesn't work, fire quickly and easily.

      • locknitpicker 6 hours ago

        > I must ask once again why we are having these 5+ round interview cycles and we aren't able to filter for qualities that the work requires of its talent.

        Hiring well is hard, specially if compensation isn't competitive enough to attract talented individuals who have a choice. It's also hard to change institutional hiring practices. People don't get fired by buying IBM, and they also don't get fired if they follow the same hiring practices in place in 2016.

        > What are all those rounds for if we're getting engineers who aren't as valued for the team's needs at the end of the pipeline?

        Software development is a multidiscinary field. It involves multiple non-overlapping skill sets, bot hard skills and soft skills. Also, you need multiple people vetting a candidate to eliminate corruption and help weed out candidates who outright clash with company culture. You need to understand that hiring someone is a disruptive activity, that impacts not only what skill sets are available in your organization but also how the current team dynamics. If you read around, you'll stumble upon stories of people who switch roles in reaction to new arrivals. It's important to get this sort of stuff right.

      • venturecruelty 12 hours ago

        It's the cargo cult kayfabe of it all. People do it because Google used to do it, now it's just spread like a folk religion. But nobody wants guilds or licensure, so we have to make everyone do a week-long take-home and then FizzBuzz in front of a very awkward committee. Might as well just read chicken bones, at least that would be less humiliating.

      • ponector 12 hours ago

        I can understand such process for freshman, but for industry veteran with 10+ years of experience, with with recommendation from multiple senior managers?

        And yet welcome to leetcode grind.

    • locknitpicker 6 hours ago

      > Part of the challenge (and I don't have an answer either) is there are some juniors who use AI to assist... and some who use it to delegate all of their work to.

      This is not limited to junior devs. I had the displeasure of working with a guy who was hired as a senior dev who heavily delegated any work they did. He failed to even do the faintest review of what the coding agent and of course did zero testing. At one time these stunts resulted in a major incident where one of these glorious PRs pushed code that completely inverted a key business rule and resulted in paying customers being denied access to a paid product.

      Sometimes people are slackers with little to no ownership or pride in their craftsmanship, and just stumbled upon a career path they are not very good at. They start at juniors but they can idle long enough to waddle their way to senior positions. This is not a LLM problem, or caused by it.

    • mooreds 17 hours ago

      > there are some juniors who use AI to assist... and some who use it to delegate all of their work to.

      Hmmm. Is there any way to distinguish between these two categories? Because I agree, if someone is delegating all their work to an LLM or similar tool, cut out the middleman. Same as if someone just copy/pasted from Stackoverflow 5 years ago.

      I think it is also important to think about incentives. What incentive does the newer developer have to understand the LLM output? There's the long term incentive, but is there a short term one?

      • supriyo-biswas 17 hours ago

        Dealing with an intern at work who I suspect is doing exactly this, I discussed this with a colleague. One way seems to be to organize a face to face meeting where you test their problem solving skills without AI use, the other may be to question them about their thought process as you review a PR.

        Unfortunately, the use of LLMs has brought about a lot of mistrust in the workplace. Earlier you’d simply assume that a junior making mistakes is simply part of being a junior and can be coached; whereas nowadays said junior may not be willing to take your advice as they see it as sermonizing when an “easy” process to get “acceptable” results exists.

      • icedchai 15 hours ago

        There are some definite signs of over reliance on AI. From emojis in comments, to updates completely unrelated to the task at hand, if you ask "why did you make this change?", you'll typically get no answer.

        I don't mind if AI is used as a tool, but the output needs to be vetted.

      • hombre_fatal 16 hours ago

        Just like anything, anyone who did the work themself should be able to speak intelligently about the work and the decisions behind its idiosyncrasies.

        For software, I can imagine a process where junior developers create a PR and then run through it with another engineer side by side. The short-term incentive would be that they can do it, else they'd get exposed.

      • water-data-dude 15 hours ago

        Is/was copy/pasting from Stackoverflow considered harmful? You have a problem, you do a web search and you find someone who asked the same question on SO, and there's often a solution.

        You might be specifically talking about people who copy/paste without understanding, but I think it's still OK-ish to do that, since you can't make an entire [whatever you're coding up] by copy/pasting snippets from SO like you're cutting words out of a magazine for a ransom note. There's still thought involved, so it's more like training wheels that you eventually outgrow as you get more understanding.

        • vkou 14 hours ago

          > Is/was copy/pasting from Stackoverflow considered harmful?

          It at least forces you to tinker with whatever you copied over.

      • gunsch 14 hours ago

        Pair programming! Get hands-on with your junior engineers and their development process. Push them to think through things and not just ask the LLM everything.

        • johnnyanmac 13 hours ago

          I've seen some overly excessive pair programming initiatives out there, but it does baffle me why less people who struggle with this do it. Take even just 30 minutes to pair program on a problem and see their process and you can reveal so much.

          But I suppose my question is rhetorical. We're laying off hundreds of thousands of engineers and maming existing ones do the work of 3-4 engineers. Not much time to help the juniors.

      • bryanrasmussen 15 hours ago

        having dealt with a few people who just copy/pasted Stackoverflow I really feel that using an LLM is an improvement.

        That is at least for the people who don't understand what they're doing, the LLM tends to come out with something I can at least turn into something useful.

        It might be reversed though for people who know what they're doing. IF they know what they're doing they might theoretically be able to put together some stackoverflow results that make sense, and build something up from that better than what gets generated from LLM (I am not asserting this would happen, and thinking it might be the case)

        However I don't know as I've never known anyone who knew what they were doing who also just copy/pasted some stackoverflow or delegated to LLM significantly.

      • lll-o-lll 17 hours ago

        > Is there any way to distinguish between these two categories?

        Yes, it should be obvious. At least at the current state of LLMs.

        > There's the long term incentive, but is there a short term one?

        The short term incentive is keeping their job.

    • sevenseacat 3 hours ago

      > This is especially annoying when you get back a response in a PR "Yes, you're right. I have pushed the fixes you suggested."

      And then in the next PR, you have to request the exact same changes

    • anal_reactor 13 hours ago

      > This is especially annoying when you get back a response in a PR "Yes, you're right. I have pushed the fixes you suggested."

      I've learnt that saying this exact phrase does wonders when it comes to advancing your career. I used to argue against stupid ideas but not only did I achieve nothing, but I was also labelled uncooperative and technically incompetent. Then I became a "yes-man" and all problems went away.

      • shagie 12 hours ago

        I was attempting to mock Claude's "You are absolutely right" style of response when corrected.

        I have seen responses to PRs that appear to be a copy and paste of my feedback into it and a copy and paste of the response and fixes into the PR.

        It may be the that the developer is incorporating the mannerisms of Claude into their own speech... that would be something to delve into (that was intentional). However, more often than not in today's world of software development such responses are more likely to indicate a copy and paste of LLM generated content.

        • anal_reactor 11 hours ago

          > However, more often than not in today's world of software development such responses are more likely to indicate a copy and paste of LLM generated content.

          This is nothing new. People rarely have independent thoughts, usually they just parrot whatever they've been told to parrot. LLMs created common world-wide standard on this parroting, which makes the phenomenon more evident, but it doesn't change the fact that it existed before LLMs.

          Have you ever had a conversation with an intelligent person and thought "wow that's refreshing"? Yeah. There's a reason why it feels so good.

      • throwaway2037 13 hours ago

        This. May you have great success! My PR comments that I get are so dumb. I can put the most obvious bugs in my code, but people are focused in the colour of the bike shed. I am happy to repaint the bike shed whatever colour they need it to be!

  • ah979 17 hours ago

    I get that. I think that getting to know juniors outside of work, at a recurring meetup or event, in a setting where you can suss out their motivation level and teachability level, is _a_ way of going about it. That way, if your team is hiring juniors, you have people you have already vetted at the ready.

    • mikepurvis 17 hours ago

      IMO teachability/curiosity is ultimately orthogonal to the more base question of money-motivation.

      In a previous role I was a principal IC trying to mentor someone who had somehow been promoted up to senior but was still regularly turning in code for review that I wouldn't have expected from an intern— it was an exhausting, mind-numbing process trying to develop some sense of engineering taste in this person, and all of this was before LLMs. This person was definitely not just there for the money; they really looked up to the top-level engineers at our org and aspired to be be there, but everything just came across as extremely shallow, like engineering cosplay: every design review or bit of feedback was soundbites from a how-to-code TED talk or something. Lots of regurgitated phrases about writing code to be "maintainable" or "elegant" but no in-the-bones feeling about what any of that actually meant.

      Anyway, I think a person like this is probably maximally susceptible to the fawning ego-strokes that an AI companion delivers alongside its suggestions; I think I ultimately fear that combination more than I fear a straight up mercenary for whom it's a clear transaction of money -> code.

      • QuercusMax 16 hours ago

        I had one fairly-junior teammate at Google (had been promoted once) who was a competent engineer but just refused to make any choices about what to work on. I was his TL and I gave him a choice of 3 different parts of the system to work on, and I was planning to be building the other two. He got his work done adequately, but his lack of interest / curiosity meant that he never really got to know how the rest of the system operated, and got frustrated when he didn't advance further in his career.

        Very odd. It was like he only had ever worked on school projects assigned to him, and had no actual interest in exploring the problems we were working on.

  • roadside_picnic 17 hours ago

    > Just thinking maybe we're not seeing the end of software engineering for those of us already in it—but the door might be closing for anyone trying to come up behind us.

    It's worth considering how aggressively open the door has been for the last decade. Each new generation of engineers increasingly disappointed me with how much more motivated they were by a big pay check than they were for anything remotely related to engineering. There's nothing wrong with choosing a career for money, but there's also nothing wrong about missing a time when most people chose it because they were interested in it.

    However I have noticed a shift: while half the juniors I work with are just churning out AI slop, the other half are really interested in the craft of software engineering and understanding computer science better.

    We'll need new senior engineers in a few years, and I suspect they will come from a smaller pool of truly engaged juniors today.

    • rozap 17 hours ago

      This is what I see. Less of door slamming completely shut, more like, the door was enormous and maybe a little too open. We forget, the 6 month coding bootcamp to 6 figure salary pipeline was a real thing for a while at the ZIRP apex.

      There are still junior engineers out there who have experiments on their githubs, who build weird little things because they can. Those people were the best engineers anyway. The last decade of "money falls from the sky and anyone can learn to code" brought in a bunch of people who were interested in it for the money, and those people were hard to work with anyway. I'd lump the sidehustle "ship 30 projects in 30 days" crowd in here too. I think AI will effectively eliminate junior engineers in the second camp, but absolutely will not those in the first camp. It will certainly make it harder for those junior engineers at the margins between those two extremes.

      There's nothing more discouraging than trying to guide a junior engineer who is just typing what you say into cursor. Like clearly you don't want to absorb this, and I can also type stuff into an AI, so why are you here?

      The best engineers I've worked with build things because they are truly interested in them, not because they're trying to get rich. This is true of literally all creative pursuits.

      • svilen_dobrev 5 hours ago

        heh. i am making software for 40 years more-or-less.

        Last re-engineering project was mostly done when they fired me as the probational period was almost over, and seems they did not want me further - too expensive? - and anyone can finish it right? Well...

        So i am finishing it for them, one more month, without a contract, for my own sake. Maybe they pay, maybe they don't - this is reality. But I want to see this thing working live.. i have been through maybe 20-30 projects/products of such size and bigger, and only 3-4 had flown. The rest did not - and never for technical reasons.

        Then/now i'll be back to the job-search. Ah. Long lists of crypto-or-adtech-or-ai-dreams, mostly..

        Mentoring, juniors? i have not seen anything even faintly smelling of that, for decade..

      • QuercusMax 16 hours ago

        I love building software because it's extremely gratifying to a) solve puzzles and b) see things actually working when I've built them from literally nothing. I've never been great at coming up with projects to work on, but I love working on solving problems that other people are passionate about.

        If software were "just" a job without any of the gratifying aspects, I wouldn't do nearly as good a job.

  • thayne 10 hours ago

    > I think highly motivated juniors who actually want to learn are still valuable.

    But it's hard to know if a candidate is one of those when hiring, which also means that if you are one of those juniors it is hard for you to prove it to a prospective employer.

  • johnnyanmac 13 hours ago

    >Now I just assume they're taking my feedback and feeding it right back to the LLM.

    seems like something a work policy can fix quickly. If not something filtered in the interview pipeline. I wouldn't just let juniors go around and try to copy-pasting non-compilable Stackoverflow code, why would I do it here?

  • agumonkey 13 hours ago

    New students are presented with agentic coding now, so it's possible that CS will become a more abstract spec refine + verify. Although I can't make it work in my head, that's what I took from speaking with a young college student.

  • Zarathruster 15 hours ago

    > Adding to this: it's not just that the apprenticeship ladder is gone—it's that nobody wants to deal with juniors who spit out AI code they don't really understand.

    I keep hearing this and find it utterly perplexing.

    As a junior, desperate to prove that I could hang in this world, I'd comb over my PRs obsessively. I viewed each one as a showcase of my abilities. If a senior had ever pointed at a line of code and asked "what does this do?" If I'd ever answered "I don't know," I would've been mortified.

    I don't want to shake my fist at a cloud, but I have to ask genuinely (not rhetorically): do these kids not have any shame at all? Are they not the slightest bit embarrassed to check in a pile of slop? I just want to understand.

    • jghn 15 hours ago

      > If I'd ever answered "I don't know," I would've been mortified.

      I'm approaching 30 years of professional work and still feel this way. I've found some people are like this, and others aren't. Those who aren't tend to not progress as far.

    • semiquaver 15 hours ago

        > embarrassed to check in a pile of slop
      
      Part of being a true junior, especially nowadays, is not being able to recognize the differences between a pile of slop from useful and elegant code.
      • johnnyanmac 12 hours ago

        It seems so obvious now, but it does make me thankful that my training drilled into my head to constantly ask "what is the problem I am trying to solve?". Communication in a team on what's going on (both in your head and the overall problem space) is just as important as the mechanical process of coding it.

        I feel that's the bare minimum a junior should be asking. the "this is useful" or "this is slop" will come with experience, but you need to at least be able to explain what's going on.

        the transition to mid and senior goes when you can start to quantify other aspects of the code. Like performance, how widespread a change affects the codebase at large, the input/outputs expected, and the overall correctness based on the language. Balancing those parameters and using it to accurately estimate a project scope is when you're really thinking like a senior.

      • gishh 12 hours ago

        More to the point, I think part of being a senior is being able to dig up code you wrote a few years ago and say “how awful”

      • bitwize 9 hours ago

        Senior level. Still can't sometimes. Just the other day I looked over some code I wrote and realized what a pile of slop it was. I kept wondering "What was I thinking when I wrote this? And why couldn't I see how bad it is till now?" My impostor syndrome is triggered hard now.

  • [removed] 13 hours ago
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  • lezojeda 16 hours ago

    Some juniors are even using AI for communication in Slack channels or even DMs. It's so uncanny.

  • zcw100 17 hours ago

    I don't know what world you're living in but software development has always been a cut throat business. I've never seen true mentoring. Maybe a code review where some a-hole of a "senior" developer would come in having just read "clean code" and use some stupid stylistic preferences as a cudgel and go to town on the juniors. I'm cynical enough to believe that this, "AI is going to take your programming job!" is just a ploy to thin out the applicant pool.

    • QuercusMax 17 hours ago

      Wow, you must have worked in some REALLY toxic places. I had one toxic senior teammate when I first started out - he mocked me when I was having trouble with some of the dev environment he had created - but he got fired shortly thereafter for being bad at his job.

      Everybody else through my 21-year career has almost universally either been helpful or neutral (mostly just busy). If you think code reviews are just for bikeshedding about style minutia, then you're really missing out. I personally have found it extremely rewarding to invest in junior SWEs and see them progress in their careers.

      • zcw100 16 hours ago

        Sure have. Finance, research labs, government contracting. Can't wait for people to chime in with their horror stories. I've seen some of the most dysfunctional crap you can imagine.

    • acheron 6 hours ago

      Seriously. I guess I wouldn’t describe it as a “cut throat” thing, but absolutely nobody in 20 years of working has ever given a shit. The idea of being “mentored” is ridiculous. It doesn’t happen.

amarant 14 hours ago

My hottest take on this is that it might be healthy for the business. During the recent boom everyone and their grandmother's dog got a job as software engineers, and some aren't really fit for it.

AI provides a bar. You need to be at least better than AI at coding to become a professional. It'll take genuine interest in the technology to surpass AI and clear that bar. The next generation of software professionals will be smaller, but unencumbered by incompetents. Their smaller number will be compensated by AI that can take care of the mundane tasks, and with any luck it's capabilities will only increase.

Surely I'm not the only one who's had colleagues with 10+years experience who can't manage to check out a new branch in git? We've been hiring people we shouldn't have hired.

andrewmutz 16 hours ago

It's not helping that in the last 10 years a culture of job-hopping has taken over the tech industry. Average tenure at tech companies is often ~2 years and after that people job hop to increase compensation.

It's clear why people do it (more pay) but it sets up bad incentives for the companies. Why would a company invest money in growing the technical skill set of an employee, just to have them leave as soon as they can get a better offer?

  • throwaway2037 12 hours ago

        > culture of job-hopping
    
    When using this phrase in this context, is your sentiment positive or negative? In my experience, each time I have a job offer for more money, I go and talk to my current line manager. I explain the new job offer, and ask if they would like to counteroffer. 100% (<-- imagine 48 point bold font!) of the time, my line manager has been simultaneously emotionally hurt ("oh, he's disloyal for leaving") and unsupportive of matching compensation. In almost all cases, an external recruiter found me online, reached out, and had a great new opportunity that paid well. Who am I to look away? I'm nothing special as a technologist, but please don't fault me for accepting great opportunities with higher pay.

        > Why would a company invest money in growing the technical skill set of an employee
    
    What exactly is meant by "invest" here? In my career, my employers haven't done shit for me about training. Yet, 100% of them expect me to be up-to-date all the time on whatever technology they fancy this week. Is tech training really a thing in 2025 with so many great online resources? In my career, I am 100% self-trained, usually through blogs, technical papers, mailing lists, and discussions with peers.
    • shagie 12 hours ago

      I'm unsure about how long your career has been.

      At Taos, there was a monthly training session / tech talk on some subject.

      At Network Appliance ('98-'09), there was a moderate push to go to trainings and they paid for the devs on the team I was on to go to the perl conference (when it was just down the road one year everyone - even the tech writers - went).

      At a retail company that I worked at ('10-'14), they'd occasionally bring in trainers on some thing that... about half a dozen of the more senior developers (who would then be able to spread the knowledge out ... part of that was a formal "do a presentation on the material from the past two weeks for the rest of your team.")

      However, as time went on and as juniors would leave sooner the appetite for a company to spend money on training sessions has dissipated. It could be "Here is $1000 training budget if you ask your manager" becoming $500 now. It could be that there aren't any more conferences that the company is willing to spend $20k to send a team to.

      If half of the junior devs are going to jump to the next tier of company and the other half aren't going to become much better... why do that training opportunity at all?

      Training absolutely used to be a thing that was much more common... but so too were tenures of half a decade or longer.

      • hobs 6 hours ago

        Then it sounds like you need to train them and also pay them better. Most people just want to stay at one company and not do the grind, but the lack of raises, poor treatment, and much better pay other places is blaming juniors for your companies problems.

  • ike2792 15 hours ago

    When I'm hiring an engineer, HR will easily let me bump up the offer by $10-20K if the candidate counters. It is nearly impossible to get that same $10-20K bump for an existing engineer that is performing extremely well. Companies themselves set up this perverse incentive structure.

    • throwaway2037 12 hours ago

      This! Each time I join a new job, about 1-3 months in the door, there is a sit-down with the new line manager to check-in and give some feedback. I always talk about future compensation expectations at the time. I tell them: The market pays approximately 4-5% increase in total comp per year. That means, up 20% every 4 years. That is my expectation. If they current company is not paying that rate, I will look elsewhere for work. In almost all cases, they nod their heads in agreement. Ironically, when I come to them 3-5 years later with a new job offer in hand with a nice pay raise, 100% of them do not support matching the compensation, and view me as an un-loyal "job hopper". You just can't win with middle managers.

      This is why I never do internal job transfers. The total comp doesn't change. If I do an external job change, I will get a pay rise. I say it to my peers in private: "Loyalty is for suckers; you get paid less."

    • johnnyanmac 12 hours ago

      Yeah, companies broke the career structure decades ago. There's no seniority rewards nor pensions to look forward to, and meanwhile companies put more budget in hiring than in promoting. They look at the high turnover rates and executives shrug. Money is being made, no changes.

      It's no surprise the market adapts to the new terms and conditions. But companies simply don't care enough to focus on retention.

    • parliament32 13 hours ago

      This has been a thing for a long time and I've thought about it quite a bit, but I still have no solutions.

      I'm pretty sure it just comes down to bean-counting: "we have a new fulltime permanent asset for $100k" vs "we have a new fulltime permanent asset for $120k" is effectively the same thing, and there's a clear "spend money, acquire person" transaction going on. Meanwhile, "we spent $20k on an asset we already have" is.. a hard sell. What are you buying with that $20k exactly? 20% more hours? 20% more output? No? Then why are we spending the money?

      It's certainly possible to dance around it talking about reducing risk ("there's a risk this person leaves, which will cause...") but it's bogged down in hypotheticals and kinda a hard sell. Sometimes I wonder if it wouldn't be easier to just fire staff for a week then re-hire them at a new salary.

      • pettertb 4 hours ago

        "What are you buying with those 20k?"

        You keep a good thing going, you buy oil for the machinery, you keep your part of the bargain and do the maintenance. You pay the correct price for the stuff you are lucky enough to have been getting on the cheap.

        I like the directness of the question: "Why should I pay more when it won't burn down right this instand if I don't?" This is a question asked all over, and it is dangerous, keeping anything going requires maintenance and knowledge in how to maintain it. That goes for cars and it goes for people.

        This is not business, it is miserly behaviour, it is being cheap.

        The miser will find himself in a harsh, transactional, brutal world. Because that is the only way for people to protect themselves against him.

      • johnnyanmac 12 hours ago

        >What are you buying with that $20k exactly?

        This incentive is entirely backwards. It should be "what are we losing with not spending that 20k?". You lose out on someone used to the company workflow, you waste any training you invested in them, you create a hole that strains your other 3-4 100k engineers, and you add a time strain to your managers to spend time interviewing a new member.

        if you really believe you can buy all that back for 120k as if you ran short on milkk, you're missing the forest for the tree.

        >Sometimes I wonder if it wouldn't be easier to just fire staff for a week then re-hire them at a new salary.

        if society conditions a workforce to understand the issue, sure. But psychologically. you'd create an even lower morale workplace. Even for a week, people don't want to be dropped like a hot potato, even if you pick it up later as it cools. People want some form of stability, especially in an assumed full time role.

      • throwaway2037 12 hours ago

        In my view, I have observed many good, underpaid engineers because they choose stability over higher pay. Most people are happy with slow and stead pay rises while working at the same company. Companies know this and pay accordingly. Only your top 1-10% of employees need more careful "TLC" to give higher raises and regular off-cycle feedback: "You're doing great. We are giving you a special raise for your efforts." You can mostly afford to lose the rest.

    • dhussoe 9 hours ago

      fwiw at big tech companies I haven't found this to be true, bonus and refresher multipliers for the higher performance review ratings are significant

  • kentm 14 hours ago

    > It's not helping that in the last 10 years a culture of job-hopping has taken over the tech industry. Average tenure at tech companies is often ~2 years and after that people job hop to increase compensation.

    I've started viewing developers that have never maintained an existing piece of software for over 3 years with skepticism. Obviously, with allowances for people who have very good reasons to be in that situation (just entered the market, bad luck with employers, etc).

    There's a subculture of adulation for developers that "get things done fast" which, more often than not, has meant that they wrote stuff that wasn't well thought out, threw it over the wall, and moved on to their next gig. They always had a knack of moving on before management could connect the dots that all the operational problems were related to the person who originally wrote it and not the very-competent people fixing the thing. Your average manager doesn't seem to have the capability to really understand tech debt and how it impacts ability to deliver over time; and in many cases they'll talk about the "rock star" developer that got away with a glimmer in their eye.

    Saw a post of someone on Hacker News the other day talking about how they were creating things faster than n-person teams, and then letting the "normies" (their words not mine) maintain it while moving on to the next thing. Thats exactly the kind of person I'd like to weed out.

  • kulahan 16 hours ago

    One would assume the solution is to simply offer a good package and retain employees with that. I returned to an old company after a few years of floating around because I realized they had the perfect mix of culture and benefits for me, even if the pay isn't massive.

    You're falling for the exact same fallacy experienced by failed salesmen. "Why would I bother investing time in this customer when they're just going to take my offer to another dealership for a better deal?"

    Answer: you offer a good deal and work with people honestly, because if you don't, you'll never get a customer.

    • andrewmutz 15 hours ago

      They could do that: hire juniors, lose money while you train them, and give them aggressive raises. Or they could just do what they are doing: skip the juniors and just hire the people who've got experience.

      • johnnyanmac 12 hours ago

        Everyone's kicking the can down the road and we're very soon going to hit points of "no one has experience (or are already working)". Someone needs to do the training. It doesn't seem like school and bootcamps is enough for what companies need these days.

    • izacus 14 hours ago

      The game theory here says that such a company will be outcompeted and killed by a company which doesn't spend money+time on retention and training but instead invests that money in poaching.

      What you say only works if everyone is doing it. But if you're spending resources on juniors and raises, you can easily be outcompeted and outpoached by companies using that saved money to poach your best employees.

      • samrus 4 hours ago

        Its the tragedy of the commons. These companies will think they are very smart for doing this, but theyll just foster a culture where there are no competent employees once the current seniors retire

      • johnnyanmac 12 hours ago

        >but instead invests that money in poaching.

        give a big enough raise and they won't want to be poached. You won't retain everyone, but your goal probably isn't to compete with Google to begin with. So why worry of the scenario of boosting a good junior from 100k to 150k but losing them to a 250k job?

        In some ways you will also need to read the room. I don't like the mentality of "I won't hire this person, they are only here for money", but to some extent you need to gauge how much of them is mission-focused and how much would leave the minute they get a 10k counter-offer. adjust your investments accordingly and focus on making something that makes money off that.

      • knollimar 13 hours ago

        What's the solution? Locking juniors in with contracts? Vesting cliffs?

  • endemic 15 hours ago

    Funny, I was at my previous company almost exactly two years. They never even gave me a cost of living increase, much less a "raise." So I was effectively earning less each year. Change needs to happen from both sides if extended tenure is the goal.

  • asdfman123 14 hours ago

    You have cause and effect reversed. Companies stopped training workers and giving them significant raises for experience, so we started job hopping.

    Some genius MBA determined that people feel more rewarded by recognition and autonomy than pay, which is actually true. But it means that all the recognition and autonomy in the world won't make you stay if you can make 50% more somewhere else.

  • dgunay 16 hours ago

    Why didn't companies just grant raises more aggressively? Was the ease of poaching engineers not a clear market signal?

    • QuercusMax 15 hours ago

      When I worked at a very small company we were extremely concerned about this, and so we paid people well enough that they didn't want to leave. All I can figure is that the bean counters just don't understand that churn has a cost.

      • johnnyanmac 11 hours ago

        some places like Amazon operate around the churn. Keep everyone anxious and they won't try to collectively bargain nor ask for raises. They won't be around long enough anyways.

    • robbiewxyz 14 hours ago

      Generally I understand the missing factor to be a control thing.

      Th power structure that makes up a typical owners-vs-employees company demands that every employee be replacable. Denying raises & paying the cost of churn are vital to maintaining this rule. Ignoring this rule often results in e.g. one longer-tenured engineer becoming irreplacable enough to be able to act insubordinately with impunity.

      A bit bleak but that's capitalism for you. Unionization, working at a smaller companies, or at employee-owned cooperatives are all alternatives to this dynamic.

    • izacus 14 hours ago

      Same reason why companies don't pay everyone 10 million bucks a month. Where do you think the money comes from?

  • loeg 14 hours ago

    Arguably, the cross-pollination of developers moving around is good for employers.

    • samrus 4 hours ago

      Sure but there needs to be a balance with momentum. You cant keep losing institutional knowledge like that. I think we are heavily disbalanced towards too much churn

    • johnnyanmac 11 hours ago

      Good to minimize bus factor, bad when you want to innovate and expand your business. So I guess it's ideal for this slowing economy focused on "maintenance".

      • loeg 11 hours ago

        No. Good in that developers are exposed to outside skills and ideas they wouldn't be by spending 10 years doing the same thing.

  • semiquaver 15 hours ago

    People have been saying this for at least 30 years.

    • johnnyanmac 11 hours ago

      40, that's around the time pensions were starting to be removed.

asdfman123 14 hours ago

They have this exact problem with scientific glassblowing, and it's been decades in the making. Manufacturing improvements now mean that you can buy almost everything from a factory, and only need experienced glassblowers for fancy, one-off stuff.

But that means there's no need for entry-level glassblowers, and everyone in the field with any significant experience is super old. The pipeline has been dead for a while now.

Ferret7446 16 hours ago

This will naturally select for the people who are self driven learners. In a sense this is nothing new, just a continued progression of the raising of the bar of who is still able to contribute economic value to the market

  • samrus 4 hours ago

    How will they learn without opportunity?

smiley1437 11 hours ago

> mid-level -> senior-level transitions will leave a hole behind that can't be filled internally.

Tech companies are betting that in 5 years, AI should be good enough to replace mid-levels.

Rinse and repeat with seniors 5 years after that.

Hard to say if that bet will pay off, or what the endgame would be; just the CEO commanding an company of AIs?

  • samrus 4 hours ago

    High risk bets like that cause bubbles. If that bet doesnt pay off then there will be a talent crisis that the american tech industry may not recover from

checker659 9 hours ago

I think the current grads are going to be shafted either way. In 5 years, there might be more opening for "fresh" young grads and the companies will prefer them over the young people who're just graduating.

xhrpost 18 hours ago

> AI means that those 'easy' tasks can be automated away, so there's less immediate value in hiring a new grad.

Not disagreeing that this is happening in the industry but it still feels like a missed opportunity to not hire juniors. Not only do you have the upcoming skill gap as you mention, but someone needs to instruct AI to do these menial/easy tasks. Perhaps it's only my opinion but I think it would be prudent to instead see this as just having junior engineers who can get more menial tasks done, instead of expecting to add it to the senior dev workflow at zero cost to output.

JumpCrisscross 6 hours ago

> AI means that those 'easy' tasks can be automated away, so there's less immediate value in hiring a new grad

Plenty of skilled work requires a master’s or PhD. CS, for those who want a safe, secure job, looks like it’s going that way.

asdff 18 hours ago

“automate it away” ironically still requires a human in the chain to determine what to automate, how, and to maintain that automation. Whether it be derived from an ai or a systemd script or an Antikythera mechanism. Now if you leave that to seniors you just ate a big chunk of their day playing shephard to a dozen plus “automated” pipelines while they still have stuff to do outside the weeds. Now you need more seniors and pretty soon they want triple what you could pay a junior and I don’t think they are 3x more prolific if the junior is managed efficiently quite frankly.

  • jjk166 18 hours ago

    The process of setting up and maintaining automation should be less labor intensive than just doing it manually (or else why would you automate it?) and almost always requires a more advanced skillset than doing the manual task.

furyofantares 17 hours ago

I hope juniors will figure out how to use AI to do larger tasks that are still annoying for seniors to do, while seniors take on larger tasks still. I think it's just seniors are learning this stuff faster at the moment and adapting it faster to current work, but as all that changes I would guess juniors reclaim some value back.

That said, you hit on something I've been feeling, the thing these models are best at by far is stuff that wasn't worth doing before.

  • squirrellous 5 hours ago

    Some juniors do figure it out, but my experience has been that the bar for such juniors is a lot higher than pre-AI junior positions, so there is less opportunity for junior engineers overall.

  • QuercusMax 15 hours ago

    I've been making use of copilot in VSCode to make changes in a codebase that's new to me, in a language that I can read if not necessarily write unaided - it's a dialect of SQL, so I can certainly understand what's happening, but generating new queries is very time-consuming (half of which is just stupid formatting stuff). Copilot seems to understand the style of the code in my project and so I don't have to do much work to make it conform, compared to my hand-written versions.

    I've also written a lot of python 2 in my career, and writing python 3 still isn't quite native-level for me - and the AI tools let me make up for my lack of knowledge of modern Python.

gausswho 18 hours ago

Anyone reccomend an analysis, article or book or video, of this effect on the blue collar industry decades ago?

  • darkstarsys 15 hours ago

    It's happening again now with robotics, self-driving vehicles and RL. Factory workers, truck drivers, construction work, order fulfillment, machinists, farm work, medical technicians and more are all very much at risk (same thing as OP: mostly junior roles getting automated). Some info at https://arxiv.org/pdf/2510.25137

zingar 15 hours ago

Do you mind giving some examples of the work that annoys seniors?

  • twosdai 15 hours ago

    Writing unit tests, manual validation work, manual testing. Automating Deployments of infrastructure, DNS work, tracking down annoying one off bugs, fixing and validating dependency issues.

    Basically this type of maintenance work for any sufficiently complex codebase. (Over 20k LOC)

    When I was an QA intern / Software Dev Intern. I did all of that junk.

    • [removed] 12 hours ago
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    • sevenseacat 3 hours ago

      I don't think I'd trust a senior that didn't do at least some of those things themselves.

      I mean, they just want to write code without testing it? Or fixing the bugs that come out of it?

  • ansgri 15 hours ago

    For me the most annoying would be a technically correct solution that completely ignores the “higher-level style” of the surrounding code, at the same time defending the chosen solution by referencing some “best practices” that are not really applicable there for some higher-level reasons, or by insignificant performance concerns. Incidentally, LLMs often produce similar problems, only one doesn’t need to politely argue with them.

RogerL 16 hours ago

I grew up in the 70s. The hand wringing then was calculators. No one was going to be able to do math anymore! And then wrist watches with calculators came out. Everyone is going to cheat on exams, oh no!

Everything turned out fine. Turns out you don't really need to be able to perform long division by hand. Sure, you should still understand the algorithm at some level, esp. if you work in STEM, but otherwise, not so much.

There were losses. I recall my AP physics professors was one of the old school types (retired from industry to teach). He could find the answer to essentially any problem to about 1-2 digits of precision in his head nearly instantly. Sometimes he'd have to reach for his slide rule for harder things or to get a few more digits. Ain't no one that can do that now (for reasonable values of "no one"). And, it is a loss, in that he could catch errors nearly instantly. Good skill to have. A better skill is to be able to set up a problem for finite element analysis, write kernels for operations, find an analytic solution using Mathematica (we don't need to do integrals by hand anymore for the mot part), unleash R to validate your statistics, and so on. The latter are more valuable than the former, and so we willingly pay the cost. Our ability to crank out integrals isn't what it was, but our ability to crank out better jet engines, efficient cars, computer vision models has exploded. Worth the trade off.

Recently watched an Alan Guth interview, and he made a throwaway comment, paraphrased: "I proved X in this book, well, Mathematica proved...". The point being that the proof was multiple pages per step, and while he could keep track of all the sub/superscripts and perform the Einstein sums on all the tensors correctly, why??? I'd rather he use his brain to think up new solutions to problems, not manipulate GR equations by hand.

I'm ignoring AGI/singularity type events, just opining about the current tooling.

Yah, the transition will be bumpy. But we will learn the skills we need for the new tools, and the old skills just won't matter as much. When they do, yah, it'll be a bit more painful, but so what, we gained so much efficiency we can afford the losses.

frmersdog 16 hours ago

I don't know if that's it. Speaking from outside the tech space: most of my office jobs since 2012 have been "doing the easy/annoying tasks that had to be done, but more senior people didn't want to 'waste time' dealing with."

So, there are two parts to this:

The first is that a lot of those tasks are non-trivial for someone who isn't a digital native (and occasionally trivial for people who are). That is to say that I often found myself doing tasks that my bosses couldn't do in a reasonable time span; they were tasks which they had ALWAYS delegated, which is another way of saying that they were tasks in which proficiency was not necessary at their level.

This leads into the second part, which is that performing these tasks did not help me advance in relevant experience at all. They were not related to higher-level duties, nor did they endear me to the people who could have introduced me to such duties. My seniors had no interest in our growth as workers; anyone who wanted to see that growth had to take it into their own hands, at which point "junior-level" jobs are only worth the paycheck.

I don't know if it's a senior problem generally, or something specific to this cohort of Boomer/Gen-X seniors. Gun-to-my-head, I would wager the latter. They give enough examples in other arenas of public life to lend credence to the notion that that they simply don't care what happens to their juniors, or to their companies after they leave, particularly if there is added hassle in caring. This is an accusation often lobbed at my own generation, to which I say, it's one of the few things our forebears actually did teach us.

Yet again, AI is just a cover for mismanagement.

devin-2030 18 hours ago

We might need a lot of young adults for war in the near future, according to some.

  • roadside_picnic 17 hours ago

    Larger scale war happens when the lives of young people are more valuable as fodder for the war machine than in a field or behind a desk.

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fundad 13 hours ago

I entered the job market in late 2000. There was no reason to hire a junior engineer when every hiring manager and senior engineer knew 10 friends who recently lost their jobs. I found work on less desirable projects and yes it affected my career trajectory and it sucked. Starting out has always sucked for most people.

x0x0 15 hours ago

My 2 cents: they're too expensive.

We had code school grads asking for $110-$130. Meanwhile, I can hire an actual senior engineer for $200 and he/she will be easily 4x as productive and useful, while also not taking a ton of mentorship time.

Since even that $110 costs $140, it's tough to understand how companies aren't taking a bath on $700/day.

  • hershey890 6 hours ago

    Good new-grads in expensive areas are going to cost $100-$130k. This is a bargain considering a few years back they could get $200-$350k.

    Bear in mind these types can explain things like why word-alignment matters and train themselves into being net productive within a few weeks.

  • johnnyanmac 11 hours ago

    If you're hiring in SF or NY, then the problem explains itself. Even a single young new grad needs that much to so live.

    you can't have rent at 3.5k a month and not expect 6 figures when requiring in-office work. old wisdom of "30% of salary goes to rent" suggest that that kind of housing should only be rented if you're making 140k. Anyone complaining about junior costs in these areas needs to join in bringing housing prices down.

  • icedchai 13 hours ago

    Yep, the value isn't there. I'm on a very lopsided team, about 5 juniors to 1 senior. Almost all of the senior time is being consumed in "mentorship", mostly slogging through AI slop laden code reviews. There have been improvements, but it's taking a long time.

    • johnnyanmac 11 hours ago

      Have you considered regulting AI use, or is it just easier to be mad at the workers and do nothing?

      • icedchai 11 hours ago

        Yes, we are working on some guidelines, but there are layers of bureaucracy...

        • johnnyanmac 10 hours ago

          That's fair. I'm sorry for being snippy. It just feels weird how my junior years always felt like I was on the edge of a needle for being fired because I didn't work "fast enough". Then I hear stories of this vibe coded slop and everyone seeks to be shrugging in confusion.

          Its even more frustrating knowing those people went through a overly long gauntlet and prevailed over hundreds of other qualified would-be engineers. Its so weird just seeing an entire pipeline built around minimizing this situation utterly fail.

geoffmanning 17 hours ago

This assumes there will still be a demand for software developers in 5 years. I believe we'll be out of jobs much sooner than that.

weatherlite 18 hours ago

> I feel the effects of this are going to take a while to be felt (5 years?);

Who knows if we'll even need senior devs in 5 years. We'll see what happens. I think the role of software development will change so much those years of technical experience as a senior won't be so relevant but that's just my 5 cents.

  • giancarlostoro 18 hours ago

    The way I'm using claude code for personal projects, I feel like most devs will become moreso architects and testers of the output, and reviewers of the output. Which is good, plenty of us have said for ages, devs dont read code enough. Well now you get to read it. ;)

    While the work seems to take similar amounts of time, I spend drastically less time fixing bugs, bugs that take me days or God forbid weeks, solved in minutes usually, sometimes maybe an hour if its obscure enough. You just have to feed the model enough context, full stack trace, every time.

    • tenacious_tuna 18 hours ago

      > Well now you get to read it.

      Man, I wish this was true. I've given the same feedback on a colleague's clearly LLM-generated PRs. Initially I put effort into explaining why I was flagging the issues, now I just tag them with a sadface and my colleague replies "oh, cursor forgot." Clearly he isn't reading the PRs before they make it to me; so long as it's past lint and our test suite he just sends the PR.

      I'd worry less if the LLMs weren't prone to modifying the preconditions of the test whenever they fail such that the tests get neutered, rather than correctly resolving the logic issues.

      • HaroldCindy 18 hours ago

        We need to develop new etiquette around submitting AI-generated code for review. Using AI for code generation is one thing, but asking other people review something that you neither wrote nor read is inconsiderate of their time.

      • icedchai 13 hours ago

        At least they're running the test suite? I'm working with guys who don't even do that! I've also heard "I've fixed the tests" only to discover, yes, the tests pass now, but the behavior is no longer correct...

    • weatherlite 18 hours ago

      > I feel like most devs will become moreso architects and testers of the output

      Which stands to reason you'll need less of them. I'm really hoping this somehow leads to an explosion of new companies being built and hiring workers , otherwise - not good for us.

      • phantasmish 17 hours ago

        > Which stands to reason you'll need less of them.

        Depends on how much demand there would be for somewhat-cheaper software. Human hours taken could well remain the same.

        Also depends on whether this approach leads to a whole lot of badly-fucked projects that companies can’t do without and have to hire human teams to fix…

    • jackschultz 18 hours ago

      This is what I'm doing, Opus 4.5 for personal projects and to learn the flow and what's needed. Only thing I'll disagree with is how the work takes similar amount of time because I'm finding it unbelievably faster. It's crazy how with smart planning and documentation that we can do with the agents, getting markdown files etc, they can write the code better and faster than I can as a senior dev. No question.

      I've found Opus 4.5 as a big upgrade compared to any of the other models. Big step up and the minor issues that were annoying and I needed to watch out for with Sonnet and GPT5.1.

      It's to the point where I'm on the side of, if the models are offline or I run out of tokens for the 5 hour window or the week (with what I'm paying now), there's kind of no use of doing work. I can use other models to do planning or some review, but then wait until I'm back with Opus 4.5 to do the code.

      It still absolutely requires review from me and planning before writing the code, and this is why there can be some slop that goes by, but it's the same as if you have a junior and they put in weak PRs. Difference is much quicker planning which the models help with, better implementation with basic conventions compared to juniors, and much easier to tell a model to make changes compared to a human.

      • giancarlostoro 17 hours ago

        > This is what I'm doing, Opus 4.5 for personal projects and to learn the flow and what's needed. Only thing I'll disagree with is how the work takes similar amount of time because I'm finding it unbelievably faster.

        I guess it depends on the project type, in some cases like you're saying way faster. I definitely recognize I've shaved weeks off a project, and I get really nuanced and Claude just updates and adjusts.

    • GuinansEyebrows 18 hours ago

      > I feel like most devs will become moreso architects and testers of the output

      which means either devs will take over architectural roles (which already exist and are filled) or architects will take over dev roles. same goes for testing/QA - these are already positions within the industry in addition to being hats that we sometimes put on out of necessity or personal interest.

      • QuercusMax 17 hours ago

        I've seen Product Manager / Technical Program Manager types leaning into using AI to research what's involved in a solution, or even fix small bugs themselves. Many of these people have significant software experience already.

        This is mostly a good thing provided you have a clear separation between solution exploration and actually shipping software - as the extra work put into productionizing a solution may not be obvious or familiar to someone who can use AI to identify a bugfix candidate, but might not know how we go about doing pre-release verification.