Comment by mgh95

Comment by mgh95 9 hours ago

40 replies

Perhaps most telling in this entire report is Table 1. It shows that the non-work has grown 8x in 1 year, whereas work has only ~3.4x. Considering that non-work related usage of ChatGPT now makes up 73% of the requests, ChatGPT is very much in the consumer market, despite substantial marketing of LLM products in a professional context and even as much as compelled usage in some corporations.

Since many consumers are typically relatively tight-fisted in the b2c market, I don't think this bodes well for the long-term economics of the market. This may explain the relatively recent pivot to attempt to "discover" uses.

I don't think this ends happily.

dolphinscorpion 9 hours ago

"I don't think this ends happily."

Still, 700 million users, and they can still add a lot of products within ChatGPT. Ads will also be slapped on answers.

If all fails, Sam will start wearing "Occupy Jupiter" t-shirts.

  • empiko 20 minutes ago

    IMO adding ads is not going to be that easy. It is relatively easy to implement ads when the user is scrolling through tons of content and the ads are "organically" injected into the stream. But if the user is seeking a specific answer in a chat-like GUI, what will you do exactly? Whatever ad you will show will have to be visually distinguished and the user will just scroll past to get to the "true" answer they want. Sure, you will still get the product in front of some eyes, but I would expect this to be less effective than other social-media based ads.

  • autoexec 7 hours ago

    > Ads will also be slapped on answers.

    Ads won't be slapped onto answers, my guess is that they will be subtly and silently inserted into them so that you don't even notice. It won't always be what you see either as companies, political groups, and others who seek to influence you will pay to have specific words/phrases omitted from answers as well.

    AI at this point is little more than a toy that outright lies occasionally yet we're already seeing AI hurting people's ability to think, be creative, use critical thinking skills, and research independently.

    • gruez 6 hours ago

      Unlikely. That would be in direct contravention of FTC disclosure rules, which even google adheres to.

      • _aavaa_ 5 hours ago

        Put the disclosure in the footnotes that comes with the link.

      • haijo2 6 hours ago

        It would def get rejected in the EU.

  • mgh95 8 hours ago

    And friendster at one point had over 100m users. A gross margin (and more importantly, positive cash flow) business is more important than users. This data is not a good indicator of either.

    • og_kalu 8 hours ago

      They have literally hundreds of millions of users that are completely free. Not google search or facebook free, but free free, and only suffer a few billion in losses. Inference is cheap and their unit economics is fine. There is literally no business that would be making profit under those constraints. If they need to make profit, they can implement ads and that will be that.

      • mgh95 8 hours ago

        In 2024 (when customer mix was more favorable) they lost 5B on 10 in forward looking ARR.

        They aren't pulling an Amazon snd balancing cash flow with costs. They're just incinerating money for a low value userbase. Even at FB arpu the economics are still very poor.

    • bix6 8 hours ago

      But if they slap on ads their margin improves so it is possible no?

      • mgh95 8 hours ago

        Yeah but the problem then becomes you are in a knife fight with google. Welcome to margin compression on already thin margins and high capex. Its not a like they buy commodity hardware that is cheap, or have the depth of talent like Google to do ASICs + DC management.

        Once OpenAI turns to ads, I think it's an indicator they are out of ideas.

    • standardUser 8 hours ago

      No one ever paid for social media, or were expected to in the future.

      • mgh95 7 hours ago

        Nobody expected the total computations from social media they expect from LLM services. And that's the point: users are irrelevant, even large enterprises with advantageous cost structures can die with poor management.

EagnaIonat 2 hours ago

I think the data might be skewed.

They only analyze the consumer plans, and ignored Enterprise, Teams and Education plans.

DenisM 8 hours ago

Consumers have low friction on the way in and on the way out. Especially when media hype gets involved.

Business have higher friction - legal, integrations, access control, internal knowledge leaks (a document can be restricted access but result may leak into a more open query). Not to mention the typical general inertia. This friction works both ways.

Think capacitive vs induction electric circuits.

  • ares623 12 minutes ago

    Consumers do have very very high friction with chatbots. As clearly demonstrated by the gpt5 update and the loss of gpt4.

  • mgh95 8 hours ago

    I don't see how friction is the primary driver here. ChatGPT is available through the most enterprise sales channel available -- Azure. The Microsoft enterprise sales engine is probably the best in the world.

    Similarly, if costs double (or worse, increase to a point to be close to typical SaaS margins) and LLMs lose their shine I dont think there will be friction on the way out. People (especially executives) will offer up ChatGPT as a sacrifice.

lispisok 6 hours ago

OpenAI makes a profile of you based on your chat history and people are far more personal with these things than Google search. It's gonna be a goldmine when they decide to use that profile to make money.

vonnik 3 hours ago

As google has shown, consumer/business market is not either/or.

qwerty_clicks 2 hours ago

Work could Be dropping from the limit of ChatGPT in the workplace and use of CoPilot in a secured Microsoft tenant.

andy99 9 hours ago

If people find it useful but enterprise adoption is lagging, doesn't that indicate there's still a big upside?

On the other hand, I remember when BlackBerry had enterprise locked down and got wiped out by consumer focused Apple.

In any event, having big consumer growth doesn't seem like a bad thing.

It will be bad if it starts a race to the bottom for ad driven offering though.

  • majormajor 4 hours ago

    > If people find it useful but enterprise adoption is lagging, doesn't that indicate there's still a big upside?

    It could indicate that many people find it more of an entertainment product than a tool, and those are often harder to monetize. You've got ads, and that's about it, and puts a probable cap on your monthly revenue per user that's less than most of the subscription prices these companies are trying to get (especially in non-USA countries).

    (I find it way more of a tool and basically don't use it outside of work... but I see a LOT of AI pics and videos in discord and forums and such.)

  • ares623 8 hours ago

    It’s been shoved down enterprise throats for months/years. Shareholders, CEOs, workers (at the start) and users (at the start) have never had such a unified understanding in what they want than this AI frenzy. All stars were aligned for it to gain more traction. And yet…

    It’s the prodigal child of tech.

  • mgh95 8 hours ago

    When Apple sells a device, they get more revenue with minimal coats turbocharging revenue and profits.

    When OpenAI sells a ChatGPT subscription, they incur large costs just to serve the product, shrinking margins.

    Big difference in unit economics, hence the quantization push.

    • [removed] 8 hours ago
      [deleted]
resfirestar 7 hours ago

The statistic is from ChatGPT consumer plans, so I don't think it says anything useful about enterprise adoption of LLM products or usage patterns in those enterprise contexts.

  • adeelk93 6 hours ago

    Exactly. Enterprise use has a carveout for analytics - so it wouldn’t be in the paper’s population anyways

ares623 9 hours ago

Looks like they only included actual chats and not agentic/copilot usage. IMO that makes the study quite incomplete.

  • mgh95 9 hours ago

    The chats alone are backbreakingly costly relative to the market mix of ChatGPT.

    Rest of the market be damned -- combined with the poor customer mix (low to middle income countries) this explains why there has been such a push by the big labs to attempt to quantize models and save costs. You effectively have highly paid engineers/scientists running computationally expensive models on some of the most expensive hardware on the market to serve instructions on how to do things to people in low income countries.

    This doesn't sound good, even for ad-supported business models.

    • haijo2 6 hours ago

      Yep and lets not forget, those people are incredibly price sensitive.

      Is there enough product differentiation between OAI and Gemini? Not that I can see. And even if it was a low price, thats not the point - people hate paying a penny for something they expect to be free.

      By the time OAI has developed anything that enables them to acquire and exercise market power (profitably), they will have ran out of funding (at least on favourable terms). Which could cause key talent to leave to competitors and so on. Essentially a downward spiral to death.

    • ares623 9 hours ago

      I also wonder how much of those "writing" assistance is for propaganda, troll farms, or scams. Such value. $500B well spent.

standardUser 8 hours ago

LLMs are the next ISPs, and those households who haven't yet found room for it on their monthly budgets soon will. And much like ISPs, i'd expect to see the starting $20/mo evolve over time into a full size utility bill. Not all households, of course, but at utility-scale nonetheless.