Comment by m348e912
Comment by m348e912 5 days ago
How does this make any financial sense?
Comment by m348e912 5 days ago
How does this make any financial sense?
Marine shipping is just about the most fuel efficient way of moving things between any two places, by a lot. A 100,000 dwt ship can get 1050 miles per gallon per ton of cargo. It takes about a teaspoon full of fuel to move an iPhone sized device across the pacific when I ran the numbers last.
To ship things to/from these fabs by sea you have to add the cost of shipping by truck between Phoenix and (presumably) LA. Not sure how big of a difference that makes.
Airplanes. They use airplanes. We are talking about microchips here, possibly the highest dollar per gram substance that exists on the planet.
The interest you'd pay just losing a couple days in transit time would exceed the cost of purchasing a dedicated private jet and the crew to fly it.
Interesting. Could you give a brief description of how you got that number? Eg. what factors were considered.
Those numbers match what comes up with a quick search:
https://www.extension.iastate.edu/grain/topics/EstimatesofTo...
That study uses 1,043.4 mpg for the fuel economy of a 100,000 dwt ship.
Videos of transportation ship engines are cool. Each cylinder is wide enough for a person to lay down inside it.
This is how most modern supply chains look like.
Plus, chips are small in size and cost a lot so you can fit a lot in a container. Per unit shipping costs probably come out to be pretty low. Especially when compared to the political costs and risks associated with not onshoring.
https://www.freightwaves.com/news/dsv-unveils-details-for-ne...
^certainly there's activity in that space
Your overall point is probably right, but "tens of thousands of dollars of value in each gram" seems like an exaggeration. How much does one CPU weigh?
Depends on the chip. A typical consumer processor is 100-200 mm². Wafers are about 1mm thick (actually a bit less, but close enough) and silicon has a density of 2300kg/m³. So it's 2.3mg/mm² of wafer area. The chip is then 0.23-0.46g. if it's high end and worth $1000, then the wafers are $2-4000 per gram. Probably the low end of that since the fancier chips are usually the physically bigger ones.
However, low-end processors will be worth radically less ($100 CPUs aren't 10x smaller) and things like top-end FPGAs will be worth substantially more. An Agilex 7 can be $40,000 and if it's got less then 4 grams (around 1700mm², or 41mm*41mm), the wafer is worth over $10k/gram. The entire chip is 56x56, and from the package drawing, the die appears to be around 30x30, so it exceeds the threshold.
This is assuming all the value of the retail price is the main wafer, which is also not true.
Thousands per gram, certainly seems possible, though I doubt it's even that on average across all chips, and considering that there is non-wafer content in the price. Tens of thousands is probably pushing it. However, it's certainly likely to be rather more than gold in terms of specific value ($100/g, ish). Harder to fence, though.
I'm suprised they can't ship (flat) packaging that could be used in Arizona with a simple assembly line.
If they had that packaging design then for this to make financial sense the two way shipping (and loading, unloading, custom clearance etc) would have to be less than shipping the packaging, the setup cost per unit cost of putting the chip in a box
Wait, wait. In the context of semiconductor manufacturing packaging does not mean what you think it means. It is not putting the product in a paper box.
It is about cutting the wafer into individual chips, wire bonding the silicone to pins, and covering the whole thing with epoxy.
Here is a video which explains it better: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=7gg2eVVayA4
It would be indeed crazy if they would ship the ready chips to Taiwan just to be put in a paper box.
basically the input of the process is a wafer which looks like this: https://waferpro.com/wp-content/uploads/2016/08/Patterned-Lo...
And the output of the process is something which looks like this: https://res.cloudinary.com/rsc/image/upload/b_rgb:FFFFFF,c_p...
You are correct. I was just illustrating what kind of processes belong to the umbrella term "packaging" in the context of semiconductor manufacturing. Was not talking about what particular process are missing from the Arizona facility.
But you are right on that it is CoWoS which is the missing ingredient.
You seem to be confusing the term packaging...it is not the box, it is how the chips are assembled together to make the final product.
Right, but he assumed he knew a technical term when he didn't, which is unwise.
The machines and processes needed to package the individual integrated circuits are fantastically expensive but the margins are so low in that step that it's only profitable at massive scales.
So you put the fantastically expensive machines near where most of the customers are and most of the customers are in Asia.
Works the same way with fiber optic cables. Making the long skinny bits is hard and high-margin. Actually turning them into cables is easy and low-margin.
So Corning makes huge spools of fiber optic cable in Arizona, North Carolina, and New York (I think) and ships it off to Taiwan and China where it is made into the cables that you plug into stuff.