Comment by generic92034 a day ago
> There’s a chance that the current situation will start to resolve itself in 3 years and we go back to normal, however that might look.
There is almost no chance for that, as lost trust does not return instantly.
It is a bit more than "spitting on each other" which now is between the USA and its former allies. I seriously doubt that we will just go back to normal the moment there is a US president from the Democratic party. Possibly in some areas of politics and economy, in others (real) trust is more essential.
I believe at the moment it's still in the "spitting on each other" phase. Had Trump actually invaded Greenland* (and likewise if he does so in the future), that's where the Rubicon gets crossed and there's no going back.
I kinda do want it to have passed that point, but not as much as I'm glad he TACOed.
* There's other metaphorical Rubicons available, this is just the one most in my mind given I live in the EU
Trump and his team repeatedly saying they have no problems using force against Greenland and Canada were the red lines and they have already been crossed.
This isn't politicking though. This is national security. In matters of national security, you take no chances. There's no going back to the relationship the world had with the USA.
What's different this time is that the US has an extensive system of checks and balances that nearly everyone thought would make the current situation impossible, and now we are learning that they aren't nearly as effective as we thought.
No matter how reasonable the next few administrations are it is hard to see anyone else trusting the US nearly as much as they did before 2024.
This has been creeping up on us for some time. For my entire life, the US executive branch has done nothing but accumulate powers and slowly undermine constitutional checks and balances. It’s all fun and games while your guy does it, but it’s inevitable that you’ll get someone in power who you don’t want. That’s the entire point of the checks and balances, but few seemed to care until now. Even if we get a “normal” president after this, I’d bet a lot of money that he/she won’t do anything to reduce the power of the executive.
> and tomorrow they'll act like they are brothers
That's mostly how it was during the last US presidential term. The president even said that "America is back" (1)
The fact is, it didn't last. America going away was not a one-off. It happened a second time, worse. The lesson that the USA just is a country that does this from time to time. People in the rest of the world who learn that lesson will prepare for the next time.
As another US president accurately said: "Fool me once, shame on you, fool me twice ... you can't get fooled again."
1) https://www.war.gov/News/News-Stories/Article/Article/250909...
In politics things work differently: you have people that "spat on each other" today and tomorrow they'll act like they are brothers and the spitting never happened.