Comment by anonym29

> Sure, the new fabs won't be up and at volume production until late 2027 / early 2028, but committing tens of billions of dollars to new production facilities, including to facilities dedicated to DRAM rather than NAND or HBM, is hardly 'abandoning'.

Look at what happened to Crucial. Why would Micron axe it's whole consumer RAM division if it was just experiencing a temporary drop in DRAM supplies until new fabs were brought online? Samsung and SK Hynix may have changes in priorities in the coming years, and in the case of Samsung I'm sure they'll still make sure to supply sufficient DRAM chips for the devices it manufactures (phones, TVs, etc...) but Micron has made it's current intentions fairly clear. They'll probably work with OEMs, but they're unlikely to return to selling to the general public any time soon.

This is the classic commodities cycle, and it happens everywhere in an economy where aggregate supply is inelastic in the short term but aggregate demand can fluctuate quickly. The reason it’s coming for DRAM first is that memory is the closest part to a pure interchangeable commodity and that recent process nodes have had almost zero improvement to memory density for years now, despite logic density continuing to increase exponentially. That and these companies have been known to fix prices in the past, but in this case the evidence suggests it’s a large aggregate demand shock.