Comment by ZenoArrow

Comment by ZenoArrow 2 days ago

> Sure, the new fabs won't be up and at volume production until late 2027 / early 2028, but committing tens of billions of dollars to new production facilities, including to facilities dedicated to DRAM rather than NAND or HBM, is hardly 'abandoning'.

Look at what happened to Crucial. Why would Micron axe it's whole consumer RAM division if it was just experiencing a temporary drop in DRAM supplies until new fabs were brought online? Samsung and SK Hynix may have changes in priorities in the coming years, and in the case of Samsung I'm sure they'll still make sure to supply sufficient DRAM chips for the devices it manufactures (phones, TVs, etc...) but Micron has made it's current intentions fairly clear. They'll probably work with OEMs, but they're unlikely to return to selling to the general public any time soon.

direwolf20 2 days ago

What makes you think it won't start selling it as Micron brand or even Crucial brand once the bubble pops?

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ZenoArrow 2 days ago

What makes you think consumers would want to trust them again after they were abandoned previously? Consumers would rather vote with their wallets for companies that are going to continue giving them good deals. The only reason Micron has a chance to pivot back to consumer RAM is because there's not much competition, but that could change if the Chinese RAM manufacturers can make inroads into western markets and continue their rapid technological growth.

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- direwolf20 a day ago
  
  Because there isn't room for reputation here. The RAM works, or it doesn't. It costs a certain price. Do you want to spend more money, or less money?
  
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  hakfoo a day ago
  
  There is definitely some room for reputation in the enthusiast/direct-to-consumer market.
  Crucial had one of the best marketing positions in the business:
  - They had a captive supply chain. There was no risk they'd switch from Samsung to Hynix chips but keep the same SKU, so you could buy a second set later and expect it to have similar timings.
  - They had a reputation for being conservative about their offerings. There's a lot of RAM out there that meets rated timings only with a voltage right on the edge of what the memory controllers will start to burn out at.
  - They were on a lot of mainboard manufacturer's qualification lists, and yet were easily obtained (at least in the US). There are a fair number of brands and ranges that simply aren't widely distributed.
  So they were in a place to say "we can charge 10% more for confidence", and considering enthusiasts willingly pay 30% more for RGB and fancy heatspreaders, that's not a bad message. I mean, I've had competent results with plenty of other brands (I have a Team set in my main rig, and it replaced a G.Skill one before the RAMpocalypse), but I always thought of Crucial as a brand you'd use if you were building a machine for work or a family member and didn't want to deal with surprises.
  
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  ZenoArrow 20 hours ago
  
  > Because there isn't room for reputation here. The RAM works, or it doesn't. It costs a certain price. Do you want to spend more money, or less money?
  RAM from China already works and as Chinese RAM manufacturers scale up there's no reason they can't be competitive on price. Furthermore, it's more than possible for China to catch up technologically as well. Micron is likely to regret pissing off the majority of their customers if Chinese RAM manufacturers start aggressively targeting the market Micron have left behind, how bad this gets for Micron depends on how quickly they pivot back to the general consumer market.
  
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