Comment by credit_guy

Comment by credit_guy 7 hours ago

23 replies

Before anybody gets too excited, it's better to understand what exactly happened.

China ran an experimental reactor that achieved some conversion of thorium into uranium. More precisely, the conversion ratio was 0.1 [1]. This means that for each new fissile atom generated from thorium (i.e. uranium-233) 10 atoms have been burned from the original fissile inventory.

Now, conversion happens in every nuclear reactor. Some new fissile material (generally Pu-239) is generated out of "fertile material" (generally U-238). And, surprisingly, that conversion ratio is quite high: 0.6 for pressurized light water reactors and 0.8 for pressurized heavy water reactors [2].

What China has achieved therefore is well below what is business as usual in regular reactors. The only novelty is that the breeding used thorium, rather than uranium.

Is this useless? No, it is not. In principle increasing the conversion ratio from 0.1 to something higher than 1.0 should be doable. But then, going from 0.8 in heavy water reactors to more than 1.0 should be even easier. Why don't people do it already? Because the investment needed to do all the research is quite significant, and the profits that can be derived from that are quite uncertain and overall the risk adjusted return on investment is not justified. If you are a state, you can ignore that. If China continues the research in thorium breeding, and eventually an economically profitable thorium breeder reactor comes out of that, the entire world will benefit. But the best case scenario is that this would be three decades in the future.

[1] https://www.world-nuclear-news.org/articles/chinese-msr-achi...

[2] https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Breeder_reactor#Conversion_rat...

jandrese 5 hours ago

Fundamentally the problem is that Uranium is so damn energy dense and abundant enough that there's little need to set up these complicated recycling systems. If we start to run out of Uranium then this technology starts to look appealing, but in the modern day it just doesn't make economic sense.

  • JumpCrisscross 5 hours ago

    > Uranium is so damn energy dense and abundant enough that there's little need to set up these complicated recycling systems

    Uranium is abundant, but not homogenously so [1]. (China has some. But not a lot. And it's bound up expensively. And it's by their population centres.)

    For the Americas, Europe, Australia, southern Africa and Eastern Mediterranean, burning uranium makes sense. For China, it trades the Strait of Malacca for dependence on Russia and Central Asia.

    [1] https://www-pub.iaea.org/MTCD/Publications/PDF/Pub1800.pdf

    • cyberax 5 hours ago

      Uranium can be stockpiled for years in advance, relatively easily. Enough to tide over a small war while you're setting up domestic production. And China should have enough low-grade ores for that.

      • JumpCrisscross 4 hours ago

        > Uranium can be stockpiled for years in advance, relatively easily

        So can oil. Energy security is an important priority for a global power.

        Stockpiles are good. Own supply chains are better.

      • mc32 4 hours ago

        Also, they can bring it in by rail from Russia. So they can avoid the seaward path.

        • JumpCrisscross 2 hours ago

          > they can bring it in by rail from Russia

          Uranium is better for Chinese energy security than oil. But this still leaves China at Moscow's mercy. That's not too differet, energywise, than the situation is now.

  • jgehring 5 hours ago

    There's not that much Uranium actually that's economically sensible to extract. The NEA says in their 2024 report on Uranium [1]:

    > Considering both the low and high nuclear capacity scenarios to 2050 presented in this edition, and assuming their 2050 capacity is maintained for the rest of the century, the quantities of uranium required by the global fleet – based on the current once-through fuel cycle – would likely surpass the currently identified uranium resource base in the highest cost category before the 2110s.

    Their "high" scenario assumes having a bit more than double of today's capacity by 2050; today we have about 4-5% supply from nuclear energy worldwide.

    [1] https://www.oecd-nea.org/jcms/pl_103179/uranium-2024-resourc...

    • JumpCrisscross 5 hours ago

      Out of curioosity, do they forecast at what point it becomes cheaper to breed than mine?

      • lazide 3 hours ago

        There are tons of mines which were shut down a long time ago, but could be reopened if there was much of a uranium market again.

        The actual efficiency of breeding thorium is so low, it would take a HUGE scarcity to actual make any sense.

  • hunterpayne 3 hours ago

    Sorry, but there are quite a few things you are missing. Nuclear engineering is well, nuclear engineering. The first big difference is that you can use the Thorium in a liquid fueled reactor instead of a solid fueled one. This allows you to burn far more of the fuel. For example, 2-4% of a solid fuel rod would fission, while in a liquid fueled reactor you can get to 90+%. This is good economically for 2 reasons: 1) more energy per unit of fuel and 2) the waste lasts far less time.

    There are also other advantages of a liquid fueled reactor. The big one is that it is far easier to run because it self regulates. When a liquid heats up it expands (slowing the reaction) and when it cools it contracts (speeding up the reaction). So its safer to run, makes less waste and gets 20+X more power per unit of fuel.

    There is one final thing to know about this stuff. A nuclear reactor is several billion in infrastructure supporting reactors that cost 10s of millions using a fuel load that costs less than your car. The way we scale and handle nuclear reactors just makes no sense economically. Each NPP is custom and they are built so rarely that everything has to be custom made. When you start building stock reactor designs with consistent supply chains, the cost goes way down. And most of the cost is lawsuits, lobbyists and PR. For developed countries, using or not using nuclear power is a political choice. One that we have been making badly. When you realize that the only real choices for baseload are FF and nuclear, the real political situation makes sense. Once again, the cause is just the excuse, not the real issue.

    • credit_guy an hour ago

      > Nuclear engineering is well, nuclear engineering.

      Not sure I get what you are trying to say. Are you saying that you are a nuclear engineer and I am not? Because, frankly, the rest of your comment does not read as one written by a nuclear engineer.

    • wizzwizz4 2 hours ago

      There's also the choice to match our energy consumption dynamically to intermittent power sources (e.g. solar), reducing the baseload demand. This is entirely orthogonal to decisions about where the baseload generation should come from.

      • hunterpayne 9 minutes ago

        That's called load following. That's also a thing a liquid fueled reactor can do that a solid fueled reactor can't.

  • wiz21c 5 hours ago

    and we still don't know where to store the trash. Thorium seems better (but my knowledge is close to zero here, I must admit:-) )

    • JumpCrisscross 5 hours ago

      > we still don't know where to store the trash

      We really do. Nuclear waste is less toxic than plenty of trash we just bury. And calling it "waste" is a bit reductive, given it almost certainly becomes valuable to reprocess within another century or two.

      • hvb2 3 hours ago

        No, you really do not.

        Long term storage is still up in the air in the US. Yucca mountain was the plan but didn't happen

        Correct me if I'm with m wrong

        https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Yucca_Mountain

        • unethical_ban 3 hours ago

          That's a political problem, not a technical one.

          We also know that we could re-cycle nuclear waste with other nuclear plant designs, but the US chooses not to.

pdpi 5 hours ago

My understanding is that reactors will use that plutonium just fine, so the energy you get from a fresh fuel rod is almost exclusively from uranium fission but, as time goes on, an increasingly large share is from plutonium fission.

In principle, using Thorium would give you the energy from Thorium fission, then Uranium fission, then plutonium fission, which is pretty cool. However, I suspect you might hit an issue here where such a low conversion rate would make the reactor go sub-critical.

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anal_reactor 4 hours ago

I'm getting impression that China is trying to position itself as scientific powerhouse before its massive industrial production scheme stops working. Smart move.

  • comeonbro 4 hours ago

    > trying to position itself as scientific powerhouse before its massive industrial production scheme stops working

    Holy shit what a perspective. Put it in a museum. If this is representative, put it on our grave.