Comment by octaane

Comment by octaane 11 hours ago

52 replies

This is probably the worst way a plane could go down in terms of damage caused. Maximum effect in term of damage. Cargo plane apparently reached V1 (go/no go speed) on the runway, and suffered a catastrophic engine failure. They passed V1, so they knew they were going down. Engine was shedding large debris, including the housing (!!!) which is a shrapnel shield.

They were on fire just as they reached V1.

Plane was fully loaded with 38,000 LB of fuel for 12 hour flight to hawaii. Worst case scenario.

Pilots did the heroic thing - they tried to take off instead at 160 MPH to minimize collateral damage (highway and warehouses at the end of the runway) and crash and die somewhere else, instead of go beyond the runway at that speed. Accelerating a fully loaded jet plane at ground level beyond the runway has obvious consequences. They had one choice.

Instead, they clipped the UPS factory because they were so low, they tried to clear it but did not. Plane then hit the ground port wing down, shearing it off entirely, smearing a fireball of jet fuel across half a mile (not an exaggeration) before the plane flipped. Crew were likely dead by before this, footage shows the cockpit being slammed into the ground like a mousetrap by the flip once the port wing was gone and gravity took the starboard wing over.

Physics took over. Plane flipped and rolled upon loss of port wing, smearing a rolling fireball of the remaining fuel load from the starboard wing for another half a mile.

Louisville is now a firestorm as a result.

Respect to the flight crew; rest in peace, they made the best they could out of a really shitty scenario. They flew it all the way down.

Footage:

https://x.com/osinttechnical/status/1985845987684855969?s=46

https://x.com/faytuksnetwork/status/1985849267152699741?s=46

https://x.com/faytuksnetwork/status/1985848132500885995?s=46

https://x.com/faytuksnetwork/status/1985843126934614297?s=46

cityofdelusion 11 hours ago

Standard procedure at V1 is commit to the takeoff and diagnose the problem in-air. Much of your comment is pure speculation until flight data recorders come back, we have no idea what the crew was thinking or what issues they were even aware of.

  • octaane 11 hours ago

    You're 100% right, and that's exactly what I'm getting at - they hit V1 and were aware they had a serious problem, but couldn't abort.

    As far as the rest of my comment - watch the videos that I linked.

    • hshdhdhehd 6 hours ago

      Could they have not hit V1 but decided to take off anyway to minimise damage (i am guessing the reverse thrust might be impossible to stop?)

      • t0mas88 3 hours ago

        No, and reverse trust is not included in the calculation for stopping distance for a failure below V1. You can stop from just below V1 with only the brakes, if that's not possible you're not allowed to start the takeoff. You would have to reduce weight until the numbers fit the runway.

        After V1 you must be able to take off on only the remaining engines. If that's not possible you must reduce weight until it is possible or you're not allowed to start takeoff at all.

        This is why in very warm weather and higher altitude airports (lower performance) sometimes cargo/luggage or even some passengers are left behind, while in colder weather all seats could be used.

justin66 2 hours ago

> Louisville is now a firestorm as a result.

Let's leave that word to mean what it actually means. Louisville experienced a serious fire.

[removed] 2 hours ago
[deleted]
gizmo686 11 hours ago

> they tried to take off instead of accelerate past the runway at ground level

Do runways have some sort of barrier between them and the next "important" thing. It seems like that would be prudent both for cases like this, and breaking failures following landings.

  • FabHK 10 hours ago

    > Do runways have some sort of barrier between them and the next "important" thing. It seems like that would be prudent both for cases like this

    Ha, Jeju Air Flight 2216 smashed into a barrier on the second landing attempt in Muan last year [0], and people commented "How could there be a barrier at the end of the runway, so obviously stupid, irresponsible", etc.

    Now a plane does not smash into a barrier at the end of the runway and people suggest putting barriers at the end of the runway.

    Don't mean to attack parent post, but may I suggest that

    a) hordes of experts have thought long and hard about these issues, and it is unlikely that you can encounter this for the first time as a lay person and come up with a solution that has eluded the best engineers for decades ("why don't they attach a parachute to the plane?"), and

    b) we are very close to an optimum in commercial aviation, and there are few if any unambiguous ("Pareto") improvements, but rather just tradeoffs. For example: You leave cockpit doors open, terrorists come in and commandeer the plane to turn it into a weapon. You lock the cockpit doors closed, and suicidal pilots lock out the rest of the crew and commandeer the plane to turn it into a weapon of mass-murder-suicide.

    There are no easy answers.

    [0] https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Jeju_Air_Flight_2216

    ETA: In 2007 an A320 overran a runway in Brazil and crashed into a gas station, killing 187 pax & crew + 12 on the ground. https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/TAM_Airlines_Flight_3054

    • linehedonist 9 hours ago

      One improvement is a bed of concrete at the end of the runway that will catch the wheels and slow an airplane down to a stop. Pretty much everyone agrees it’s a good idea but it’s not always possible due to space needs or cost. https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Engineered_materials_arrestor_...

      • hshdhdhehd 6 hours ago

        If it costs too much it is also a bad idea. Why? Because that money can be spent on other safety.

      • amelius an hour ago

        Also put the fire department right next to it. Or some kind of automated extinguisher.

    • fuzzythinker 8 hours ago

      Or a ramp with "one-way teeth" that stops it with gravity and stops it from sliding back down with teeth.

      • nedrylandJP 29 minutes ago

        Sounds like a much more substantial runaway truck ramp

      • kijin 8 hours ago

        The ramp will need to be very long and very high in order to absorb the momentum of a fully loaded widebody jet. Not something that you'd want near a runway where planes can land in either direction.

    • csomar 4 hours ago

      The solution is to "free" the perimeter of takeoff/landing. Bonus: People don't have to chose to work/live in these noisy areas. I understand some areas have challenges to come up with space but the US has tons of space and maybe the sea should be used to host these airports.

  • topspin 11 hours ago

    > Do runways have some sort of barrier between them and the next "important" thing.

    Some do. Here is what it looks like when an overshooting plane utilizes such a barrier: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=zW71FrX8t_g

    179 dead.

    Consider the possibility that gigantic flying aluminum tubes filled with tons of flammable fuel hurtling around at hundreds of kilometers per hour comprise a dilemma that has no trivial answers. Even defining what "important thing" means at any given instant is not straightforward.

  • octaane 11 hours ago

    Unless you have a berm several dozen meters high with a 100 meter base, you ain't stopping something like this from a physics standpoint unfortunately.

    Many airports have this problem. The recent korean air disaster which echos this is another example. BTW, this is why most airports, if possible, point out to sea...

    • wickberg 11 hours ago

      Newer airports usually try to have space, that's the only thing helping with the physics involved here.

      Older airports might have EMAS [1] retrofitted at the ends to help stop planes, but that's designed more for a landing plane not stopping quickly enough (like [2]) - not a plane trying to get airborne as in this case.

      [1] https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Engineered_materials_arrestor_... [2] https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Southwest_Airlines_Flight_1248

    • positron26 11 hours ago

      There is a dead zone between rejection and successful take-off speeds. We see it hit too often.

      I think pilot training is playing a factor. A normal rotation kills too much energy. One engine can climb when you have some airspeed and get clean, but if you lose too much energy on rotation, the inefficiency of the AoA for the rest of the short flight means that engine can no longer buy you any up. I've seen too many single-engine planes going down while trying to pitch up the whole way down.

      So, less aggressive single-engine rotations and energy absorbers at the ends of runways that can't get longer. This seems like the kind of thing where we do it because it removes a significant cause of people dying.

      Just watched this angle a few more times: https://x.com/BNONews/status/1985845907191889930

      Another crash video shows the aircraft clearly descending before colliding with anything. It manages to go up a bit, so it's fast enough to get airborne. The normal looking rotation kills too much energy. The plane is then too inefficient to maintain speed. AoA goes up while energy goes down. Power available goes negative and then it's over.

      • mannykannot 10 hours ago

        Rotation does increase drag, but you need to rotate in order to achieve the necessary angle of attack. The only way to reduce the rotation angle is by going faster than the normal rotation speed for the given weight and airfield density altitude, but doing so is out of the question in this scenario.

      • bigbadfeline 10 hours ago

        > It manages to go up a bit, so it's fast enough to get airborne. The normal looking rotation kills too much energy.

        Yes, it did get airborne for a few seconds but from the video below, it looks like the left wing was damaged by the fire and could not provide enough lift, then the right wing rolled the plane to the left causing the crash.

        https://bsky.app/profile/shipwreck75.bsky.social/post/3m4tvh...

      • brazzy 4 hours ago

        There might be other kinds of damage where the quicker altitude gain of a normal rotation is crucial for survival.

        I'm skeptical whether pilots can realistically make this kind of decision, given that they have no more than a few seconds to make it, and in cases such as this based on very incomplete information about the state of their aircraft.

  • mannykannot 9 hours ago

    Some runways have been extended with ‘engineered materials’ surfaces, often a form of porous concrete into which an airliner’s wheels will sink, absorbing a lot of energy and arresting the airplane without causing it to break up. It is very effective for landing overruns, but I don’t know about last-seconds aborted takeoffs.

  • [removed] 11 hours ago
    [deleted]
  • TylerE 10 hours ago

    Security/debris fencing yes, but that's like, orders of magnitude short of what would stop the amount of energy we're talking about here.

    You also don't particularly want it to be catastrophically effective as there are real world cases where planes have clipped the fence and then NOT gone on to crash, or at least to crash in a fairly controlled manner with the majority onboard surviving. Hitting a brick wall at 180mph is going to have a 0% survival rate.

    • namibj 10 hours ago

      Yet a reinforced concrete wall of e.g. triangular section and anchored with "long enough" piles would be about the only not-that-expensive way to turn a short strip of "airport land" past the EMAS into a V1 stopping supermarket.

[removed] 11 hours ago
[deleted]
trallnag 2 hours ago

Makes me think of the song "огромное небо" https://youtu.be/0EQNv8L49cs?si=2LTHtiKNvpZVDWVy

Work place related accidents always have a certain tragedy to them. Still remember when in the industrial park, my employer is located in, tanks belonging to a trash incinerator for special chemical waste exploded, taking several people with it.

basisword 4 hours ago

>> highway and warehouses at the end of the runway

It's astonishing that this is a thing. Why aren't we building airports with enough space for a plane to remain on the ground and have plenty of room to decelerate in this situation? I can understand why it can't be retro fitted to existing airports but is it a scenario that's considered at new airports? Just seems like such an absolutely basic safety step.

  • giantrobot 3 hours ago

    Airports are usually built (originally) out in the boonies away from the major metro area. As time goes by and that land gets more valuable developers grease palms of politicians in land use commissions to allow developments closer and closer to the airports.

    Airports also grow themselves. Some municipal airports sited for small aircraft extend their runways to handle larger planes.

chzblck 11 hours ago

Sorry for ignorance but why is the right thing to continue to take off with an engine on fire?

  • appreciatorBus 10 hours ago

    It depends on whether or not, at the point in which you realize you have an engine on fire, you have room on the runway left to stop.

    As I understand it, there is a low speed regime, under 80 knots, where are you stop for basically anything.

    Then there is a high speed regime, where you only stop for serious issues, because you now have so much kinetic energy that stopping the plane, while still possible, will involve risk. (i.e. fire from overheated brakes.)

    At a certain point, called V1, there’s no longer enough room to stop, no matter what your problem is. You’re either getting airborne or you’re crashing into whatever is ant the end of the runway. In general, getting airborne is the safer option, while obviously still not risk free.

    However, this calculation also assumes that the engine fails in an isolated fashion, and its failure did not affect the other engines. If the failure of the left engine threw off debris that damaged the middle engine then we are now talking about a double engine failure. I’m sure the pilots knew there was a problem with the engine when they made the decision to continue, but it’s possible that problems with the middle engine weren’t apparent yet and that it only started to fail once they were committed.

    Obviously, this is just speculation, and we will have to wait for the preliminary report at least.

    RIP

    • bathtub365 8 hours ago

      Being untrained but spending a little bit of time in a full motion 737 simulator that’s used to train and certify commercial pilots, I was amazed at how quickly things happen even in a scenario with no faults.

      This situation (single engine failure at V1) is something that commercial pilots are certified in at every recurrent certification since it’s one of the most difficult you can be in. The crew now need to climb and go around for a landing on one engine while simultaneously running through the engine failure (and also likely fire) checklist. I don’t know if a double engine failure at V1 on a fully loaded 3 engine aircraft is technically survivable or if it’s something that’s trained on. They were put in an incredibly difficult situation just based on what reports we’ve already seen.

      • TheOtherHobbes 2 hours ago

        I would be astounded if there was anything the pilots could have done to prevent this.

        The plane was two engines out and a main fuel tank on fire, fully laden with a full fuel load. No amount of training or improvisation was going to fix that.

        If anything it's lucky/professional they crashed into an industrial park and didn't have time for a go around. It would have been an even bigger disaster if they'd crashed into the town centre or a residential area.

  • FabHK 10 hours ago

    V1 is the speed at which you can still stop the plane before the end of the runway. (It is computed for each takeoff based on runway length, aircraft mass, takeoff engine power setting, flaps, wind, runway condition, etc.)

    When the plane reaches V1, pilots take the hand off the throttle: they're committed to takeoff, even if an engine fails. It is better to take off and fix the problem or land again, than to smash into whatever is beyond the end of the runway.

    • panxyh 9 hours ago

      Isn't there any margin? Does it calculate stopping before end of runway or before causing damage?

      Surely uncertainty about the situation contributes to defaulting to committing, but what if it's a passenger plane and at V1 pilots know they've lost power? Wouldn't veering into highway at 30 mph be weighted against certain, big loss of life?

      Edit: I now see that this has been partially answered by uncle comment

      • t0mas88 3 hours ago

        There is some margin in the calculations. But the training is very very clear, before V1 you must abort and after V1 you must continue. No discussion, no decision to make. You call V1, hands go off the throttles and no matter what you're going to fly.

        The margin is for example that the plane must not just be able to fly, but also reach a minimum climb gradient to clear obstacles with a bit of safety margin. There is also an allowance for the time it takes from calling abort to actually hitting the brakes. And for example headwind is part of the calculation (it makes the takeoff distance shorter) but only 50% of the headwind is used in the calculations.

        But all of those margins are not for the crew to use, the crew must just execute the procedure exactly as trained which means at V1 you're committed to continue the takeoff. And before V1 in case of an engine failure you have to hit the brakes to make sure you can stop before the end of the runway.

        • panxyh 34 minutes ago

          Excuse me if not, but was that AI generated? I'd take a bit of offense in that.

      • hugh-avherald 2 hours ago

        V1 is the decision speed with respect to a single engine failure in a multi-engine aircraft. It's the speed below rotation speed at which the decision to abort safely can no longer be made.

        Captains can make the decision to abort the takeoff in the case of absolute power loss or for 'failure to fly' (where the aircraft is clearly not going to fly, e.g. the elevator/pitch controls aren't responding). But the training is adamant: if you're uncertain what has happened after V1 you try to fly the plane away from the runway.

        • panxyh 40 minutes ago

          > abort safely

          That's what I'm getting at. I want to abort unsafely. Imagine 400 meters of grass field after the end of the runway, and a water body. I'm asking wether such factors are accounted for, or if plane on ground beyond runway does-not-compute.

      • ExoticPearTree 3 hours ago

        After you reach V1, you take off.

        Between V1, Rotate and V2, there’s like a 2-3kts difference (between each of them).

        I am not familiar what the procedure is if you have dual-engine failure at or above V1.

      • kijin 8 hours ago

        A fully loaded plane is extremely likely to turn into a fireball if it hits anything on the ground, even at 30mph. It's just a thin shell of aluminum with tons of fuel sloshing inside.

  • atrus 11 hours ago

    It was at a point where they were going to fast to stop or land safely. At that point you're just trying to pick the best place to crash.

  • octaane 11 hours ago

    To avoid mass casualties at the end of the runway - on the road, or the buildings that the runway points to. Check the layout on google maps.

    More specifically, V1 is the max speed at which you're about to take off, but you can still abort from. They hit that max speed and realized there was a major problem that hypothetically, they could have slowed down from, but realistically was not possible. They had no choice.

  • [removed] 11 hours ago
    [deleted]