Comment by Esophagus4

Comment by Esophagus4 18 hours ago

Eh, this seems like a cop out.

It’s so easy for people to shout bubble on the internet without actually putting their own money on the line. Talk is cheap - it doesn’t matter how many times you say it, I think you don’t have conviction if you’re not willing to put your own skin in the game. (Which is fine, you don’t have to put your money on the line. But it just annoys me when everyone cries “bubble” from the sidelines without actually getting in the ring.)

After all, “a bubble is just a bull market you don’t have a position in.”

zoul 14 hours ago

Believe it or not, many people just don’t care about the stock market. But they may still care about the economy that could crash badly if the AI bubble gets too big before it pops.

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Esophagus4 13 hours ago

People find all kinds of things to worry about if it gives them something to do, I guess.
In the same way that my elderly grandmother binge watches CNN to have something to worry about.
But the commenter I responded to DID care about the stock market, despite your attempt to grandstand.
And my point was, and still is, if you really believe it’s a bubble and you don’t actually have a short position, then you don’t actually believe it’s a bubble deep down.
Talk is cheap - let’s see your positions.
It would be like saying “I’ve got this great idea for a company, I’m sure it would do really well, but I don’t believe it enough to actually start a company.”
Ok, then what does that actually say about your belief in your idea?

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lawn 13 hours ago

You can correctly identify a bubble without being able to identify when it'll burst (which is arguably the much harder problem).

The statistically correct play is therefore not to do this (and just keep buying).

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Esophagus4 12 hours ago

Then no, you haven’t identified a bubble.
You’ve just said, “I think something will go down at some point.” Which… like… sure, but in a pointlessly trivial way? Even a broken clock is right eventually?
That’s not “identifying a bubble” that’s boring dinner small talk. “Wow, this Bitcoin thing is such a bubble huh!” “Yeah, sure is crazy!”
And even more so, if you’re long into something you call a bubble, that by definition says either you don’t think it’s that much of a bubble, huh? Or you’re a goon for betting on something you believe is all hot air?

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