Comment by lawn
You can correctly identify a bubble without being able to identify when it'll burst (which is arguably the much harder problem).
The statistically correct play is therefore not to do this (and just keep buying).
You can correctly identify a bubble without being able to identify when it'll burst (which is arguably the much harder problem).
The statistically correct play is therefore not to do this (and just keep buying).
Then no, you haven’t identified a bubble.
You’ve just said, “I think something will go down at some point.” Which… like… sure, but in a pointlessly trivial way? Even a broken clock is right eventually?
That’s not “identifying a bubble” that’s boring dinner small talk. “Wow, this Bitcoin thing is such a bubble huh!” “Yeah, sure is crazy!”
And even more so, if you’re long into something you call a bubble, that by definition says either you don’t think it’s that much of a bubble, huh? Or you’re a goon for betting on something you believe is all hot air?