Comment by palmotea

Comment by palmotea 17 hours ago

7 replies

> That which survived, at least. A whole lot of rail infrastructure was not viable and soon became waste of its own. There was, at one time, ten rail lines around my parts, operated by six different railway companies. Only one of them remains fully intact to this day. One other line retained a short section that is still standing, which is now being used for car storage, but was mostly dismantled. The rest are completely gone.

How long did it take for 9 out of 10 of those rail lines to become nonviable? If they lasted (say) 50 years instead of 100, because that much rail capacity was (say) obsoleted by the advent of cars and trucks, that's still pretty good.

9rx 16 hours ago

> How long did it take for 9 out of 10 of those rail lines to become nonviable?

Records from the time are few and far between, but, from what I can tell, it looks like they likely weren't ever actually viable.

The records do show that the railways were profitable for a short while, but it seems only because the government paid for the infrastructure. If they had to incur the capital expenditure themselves, the math doesn't look like it would math.

Imagine where the LLM businesses would be if the government paid for all the R&D and training costs!

  • Spooky23 15 hours ago

    Railroads were pretty profitable for a long time. The western long haul routes were capitalized by land transfers.

    What killed them was the same thing that killed marine shipping — the government put the thumb on the scale for trucking and cars to drive postwar employment and growth of suburbs, accelerate housing development, and other purposes.

    • 9rx 14 hours ago

      > the government put the thumb on the scale for trucking and cars to drive postwar employment and growth of suburbs, accelerate housing development, and other purposes.

      The age of postwar suburb growth would be more commonly attributed to WWII, but the records show these railroads were already losing money hand over fist by the WWI era. The final death knell, if there ever was one, was almost certainly the Great Depression.

      But profitable and viable are not one and the same, especially given the immense subsidies at play. You can make anything profitable when someone else is covering the cost.

  • jcranmer 11 hours ago

    > The records do show that the railways were profitable for a short while, but it seems only because the government paid for the infrastructure. If they had to incur the capital expenditure themselves, the math doesn't look like it would math.

    Actually, governments in the US rarely actually provided any capital to the railroads. (Some state governments did provide some of the initial capital for the earliest railroads). Most of federal largess to the railroads came in the form of land grants, but even the land grant system for the railroads was remarkably limited in scope. Only about 7-8% of the railroad mileage attracted land grants.

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    • 9rx 10 hours ago

      > Actually, governments in the US rarely actually provided any capital to the railroads.

      Did I, uh, miss a big news announcement today or something? Yesterday "around my parts" wasn't located in the US. It most definitely wasn't located in the US when said rail lines were built. Which you even picked up on when you recognized that the story about those lines couldn't have reasonably been about somewhere in the US. You ended on a pretty fun story so I guess there is that, but the segue into it wins the strangest thing ever posted to HN award. Congrats?