Comment by briandear

Comment by briandear 2 days ago

Coffee crop failures have been around as long as there have been coffee crops, this idea that current coffee could go extinct is silly. Ideal locations for growing coffee can change and evolve over time, but an extinction event? C’mon. If that were to happen, there would be any people left to care.

Literally everything is blamed on climate change these days. Too much snow? Climate change. Too little snow? Also climate change.

A few years ago I was climbing Mont Blanc and the rockfall due to a warmer winter was blamed on climate change, then a few years later: near-record snow. It’s taking on religious overtones: rather than things happening because it’s God’s will — now it’s “climate.”

I am not denying that the climate changes, I am only calling out that literally every mishap in the natural world is being blamed on it. There is a lot of money in that business.

rwyinuse 2 days ago

You don't need an "extinction event" to hurt coffee production so much that drinking it (especially Arabica) becomes an expensive luxury due to lack of supply. Crops that are grown only in particular parts of the world will suffer the most from localized unusual weather patterns, as there won't be production from elsewhere to compensate.

Also, it takes some time to move production elsewhere. And if climate change continues to get worse, you can't really trust any place to have a consistent climate.

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jpalawaga 2 days ago

So you're not denying climate change, just the effects of it. I'm not sure that's any better.

We call it climate change because warmer weather produces higher variance in weather patterns--you're adding entropy into the system. Overall warmer, but more rain (and mud/rockslides), more wind, more lightning, etc etc.

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rmah 2 days ago

As I read it, he's not denying the effects either. He's just saying that not everything bad that happens wrt climate and weather is due to "climate change". Sometimes, it's just variations, which have always happened.

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- ars 2 days ago
  
  These days everything is blamed on climate change. And when people point out natural variation, they get bashed.
  A recent example is the CA fires, there is zero evidence linking them to climate change - they did a study and found no effect - which of course was reported as "climate change to blame".
  
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  ayolisup 20 hours ago
  
  Unless we're talking about two different studies, saying you misinterpreted it is an understatement (https://www.worldweatherattribution.org/climate-change-incre...)
  
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  ars 3 hours ago
  
  No, I did not misinterpret it. That study does not show what you think it does. i.e. the actual data does not lead to the conclusion presented. The actual data shows zero effect, the written conclusion is a work of fiction.
  
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  inetknght 2 days ago
  
  > there is zero evidence linking them to climate change - they did a study and found no effect
  Can you point to this study? Or at least point to this "they" to whom you're referring?
  
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  siffin a day ago
  
  What are you talking about? The burden is on you to explain how manipulating the chemical makeup of the atmosphere DOESN'T have a direct impact, even at the tiniest levels (1ppm).
  At the levels we're at now, CO2e imbalances definitely impact every single weather event on the planet to some degree, and you'd have to be delusional not to accept that.
  
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  ars 3 hours ago
  
  When the level of random variation is greater than the change attributed to an event it's not possible to claim an event caused something. The random changes overwhelm and possible change.
  If you want to claim a change anyway, the burden is on you to do the modeling and math to prove it.
  
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joquarky a day ago

Sure, we should be smart, adaptive, and not blindly follow hype...

But also we should not ignore early warning signs, especially when they give us time to prepare.

It's not fear, it’s just game theory. If there's a decent chance of major disruption, the cost of not acting early could be way worse.

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Etheryte 2 days ago

Climate change doesn't mean it only gets warmer, it means you get more extreme weather outcomes. Your anecdotes are a good example of climate change in action.

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