Comment by nightpool

Comment by nightpool 3 days ago

22 replies

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A 2019 study of 5 European airports in 2019 had no-show rates of 14.4%: https://www.ozion-airport.com/product/comparative-analysis-n...

However, my understanding is that airlines have much more sophisticated per-flight and per-passenger models that calculate the predicted no-show factor based on the historical rates for that particular route (e.g. you're more likely to get more no-shows in business class flying from NYC to SF compared to holiday travelers with a reservation on the Florida Keys)

SteveNuts 3 days ago

That blows my mind, I would expect maybe 1 or 2 passengers per plane at most. I'm trying to think of what factors would cause that many no-shows, it has to be mostly missed connections?

I can't imagine spending hundreds of dollars and just not showing up.

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  • lhoff 3 days ago

    A friend of mine works for a Management Consultancy firm and they have full flex tickets if they miss the 8pm flight home they can take the next one or fly back the next morning. All without additional fees. So I believe business travel is the biggest factor when it comes to missed flights.

    Side note: His employer is the biggest client of a major European airline.

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    • listenallyall 3 days ago

      No additional fees, but the cost of the ticket is typically sky-high. In many cases the company could purchase 3 restricted-fare tickets for less than the unrestricted fare. (And also, the consultants want to get home, they HATE staying extra nights, so they have inherent motivation to catch the original flight). You'd think that management consulting firms, you know, who are supposed to be good at optimization and reducing costs, would have figured this out.

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      • NikolaNovak 3 days ago

        * A massive bulk of flex rates is different price than a single flex ticket

        * when I travelled to a single city with 20+ colleagues for several years, our nightly hotel rate was less than quarter of published rate. I don't think we got anything like that on Airlines, but nevertheless, bulk gets discounts.

        * I forget details but between specific frequent cities which had hourly flights, we had full flexibility and we used this all the time. So we might catch a flight hour earlier if there was one available, or hour later if need be than booked.

        Basically to everybody's point, business travel is very different than vacation travel and intuition from once a year personal trip don't apply.

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        • listenallyall 3 days ago

          * Hotels are required by law to have a published "rack rate" and it's common for both leisure and business travelers to book at more than half, or more, off those rates. Airlines don't have that.

          * Yes of course there are negotiated discounts for major corporations- but full flexibility is still far more expensive than restricted tickets, just like business is still far more expensive than economy.

          * Most airlines offer guaranteed same-day changes, or at least priority standby, to high-status loyalty members (which most consultants are) so buying full-flex tickets to get an hour earlier/later flexibility is redundant - basically, paying for a benefit you already have.

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      • CPLX 3 days ago

        They aren’t following the same rules as you, they’re on negotiated rates/agreements.

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      • danielheath 3 days ago

        ... or perhaps they prioritize ensuring their consultants feel like they're being looked after - replacing them when they find another job is very expensive.

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      • mjcl 3 days ago

        They have figured it out, the client is paying for it.

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      • lukas099 2 days ago

        > You'd think that management consulting firms, you know, who are supposed to be good at optimization and reducing costs, would have figured this out.

        Maybe they've figured out that enabling their employees to stay a few extra hours without worry to finish a deal is worth it.

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  • vidarh 3 days ago

    Keep in mind they sell a lot of tickets where one of the features that allows for a premium price is that they allow late cancellations or changes to other flights. Holiday travelers are pretty "reliable", but business travelers might have changed needs at the drop of a hat (say you meet another prospective client on a business trip and decide to stay another day to fit in a face-to-face meeting).

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  • rsynnott 2 days ago

    European airports in 2019: A lot of these would be 10 euro Ryanair/Easyjet/Whatever flights, probably.

    (The really ultra cheap Ryanair flights are less of a thing now, but in 2019 they were very much a factor)

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  • Spooky23 3 days ago

    Remember lots of business travelers have connections or flex schedules. When I had to go to the West coast for business, I usually have full fare tickets and book a later flight. If I had flexibility, I’d switch to an earlier plane or first class.

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  • packetlost 3 days ago

    I'm sure other factors such as sudden illness and migrateable tickets make a sizeable chunk too.

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