Comment by weitendorf

Comment by weitendorf 5 days ago

4 replies

I think your management was acting more competently than you are giving them credit for.

If A/B testing data is weak or inconclusively, and you’re at a startup with time/financial pressure, I’m sure it’s almost always better to just make a decision and move on than to spend even more time on analysis and waiting to achieve some fixed level of statistical power. It would be a complete waste of time for a company with limited manpower that needs to grow 30% per year to chase after marginal improvements.

zelphirkalt 5 days ago

One shouldn't claim to be "data-driven", when one doesn't have a clue what that means. Just admit, that you will follow the leader's gut feeling at this company then.

  • closewith 5 days ago

    In all cases, data-driven means we establish context for our gut decisions. In the end, it's always a judgement call.

    • khafra 5 days ago

      Robin Hanson recently related the story of a firm which actually made data-driven decisions, back in the early 80's: https://www.overcomingbias.com/p/hail-jeffrey-wernick

      It went really well, and then nobody ever tried it again.

      • closewith 5 days ago

        That's a counter-example. The prediction markets were used to inform gut feelings, not controlling the company, and in the end, when he wanted to stop, he stopped following the markets and shut the company.