khafra 5 days ago

Robin Hanson recently related the story of a firm which actually made data-driven decisions, back in the early 80's: https://www.overcomingbias.com/p/hail-jeffrey-wernick

It went really well, and then nobody ever tried it again.

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  • closewith 5 days ago

    That's a counter-example. The prediction markets were used to inform gut feelings, not controlling the company, and in the end, when he wanted to stop, he stopped following the markets and shut the company.

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