Comment by mlyle

Comment by mlyle 2 days ago

18 replies

> This might be true, but the rust belt is called that for a reason.

> > as the actual manufacturing has moved towards higher value items and greater degrees of automation.

US manufacturing has moved away from things like primary metals, which the steel belt had focused on, and towards things further up the value chain.

https://www.nist.gov/sites/default/files/styles/2800_x_2800_...

Manufacturing fell from 25% of GDP in 1947 to 12% in 2015... but real GDP increased by 10x. So, the value of manufacturing output went up by ~4x over that span.

https://www.stlouisfed.org/on-the-economy/2017/april/-/media...

What really went away were the jobs.

llamaimperative 2 days ago

Just further evidence of the accelerating returns to capital. It just makes less and less sense for America to be engaged in highly wealth-distributive (i.e. labor intensive) activities, more sense for it to engage in capital-intensive ones which, by definition, accrue further benefit to the owners of that capital. Yikes!

  • starspangled 2 days ago

    But industry cries out for more immigration to suppress wages because they don't have enough workers (or at least, not enough leverage in the labor market as they would like), so I'm not sure if that tracks.

    • weweersdfsd 2 days ago

      They will keep crying that, no matter the actual labor market situation. My country has low wages, high unemployment, and yet businesses similarly cry for more immigration, as they always want to find the most desperate worker who accepts the lowest wage possible. That's the reality of modern capitalism.

      • eru 2 days ago

        Have you considered that those foreigners are humans, too?

        Or do you believe in out-of-sight-is-out-of-mind?

      • [removed] 2 days ago
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    • llamaimperative 2 days ago

      Why wouldn’t you want cheaper labor to the extent you need it at all?

      • starspangled 2 days ago

        Nobody would be investing in labor intensive industry because it doesn't return as well, so there would be a huge oversupply of labor, so prices would already be at their floor.

        That doesn't seem to be what's happening though.

Shog9 2 days ago

The jobs, and in many cases the expertise held by the people working those jobs.

I think this was the angle epistasis was coming from: not just that chips are physically being formed within the boundaries of the US, but that citizens are involved, being trained and garnering the practical experience that comes with being intimately involved.

So, so much of this sort of experience has been lost over the past few decades, and the fallout is palpable: how many discussions have played out right here surrounding the challenges of manufacturing anything, even trivial bits of plastic, at scale without spending years traveling across the world, dealing with language and cultural mismatches, ensuing mistakes and quality issues?

We're in a weird place now, wrt manufacturing skill - there are still plenty of individual crafters, folks who can make one-off or small runs of high-quality goods... For a pretty high cost per/ea. But scaling is troublesome; to hit that economy of scale requires a lot more people with maybe journeyman-level skill, folks who cut their teeth in a large operation and are looking to specialize - and those large operations aren't here.