Comment by ceejayoz

Comment by ceejayoz 3 days ago

> It's easy to sit online and make bold and vague claims like there will be armed escalation in retaliation.

I mean, that's the pretty standard response in this conflict. Permanent tit-for-tat, back-and-forth, for decades/millennia depending on how broadly you count things. For a concrete example, Iran's April strikes.

> What do you think constitutes a major escalation?

Terror attacks on Israeli assets abroad - I'd be keeping embassies/consulates on alert - and rocket strikes against Israel. At least enough to try to save face, although the Iranian strikes offer a "good luck" for that.

> I would happily bet against a ground invasion.

By Hezbollah? Well, yeah.

s1artibartfast 3 days ago

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ceejayoz 3 days ago

I think Netanyahu's champing at the bit for escalation, and there's plenty of precedent for relatively small things triggering big responses.
As a concrete example, the last big Israel-Lebanon war resulted from the capture of two Israeli soldiers in a border raid; https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2006_Lebanon_War

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- s1artibartfast 3 days ago
  
  Do you think Lebanon will escalate by capturing prisoners? I agree that that could be an escalation given the context and history. That said, I don't know what a path to peace with Hezbollah looks like. It's hard to imagine Israel tolerating it imperfect ceasefire while Hezbollah continues to arm, given how that worked out with Hamas
  I think that netanyahu would be very happy to see a de-escalation on the northern border and it would be a big win for his cabinet.
  
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  ceejayoz 2 days ago
  
  > Do you think Lebanon will escalate by capturing prisoners?
  It's certainly part of the playbook, if they can manage some captures. Soft targets seem a lot more likely, though.
  > That said, I don't know what a path to peace with Hezbollah looks like.
  This conflict is creating the next generation of orphaned rage-filled extremists. Peace is a very, very distant goal at this point.
  > I think that netanyahu would be very happy to see a de-escalation on the northern border and it would be a big win for his cabinet.
  I very much disagree. Netanyahu is on a treadmill he can't ever let stop; ending the emergency means having to properly face his long-delayed criminal proceedings (https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Trial_of_Benjamin_Netanyahu).
  
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  talldayo 2 days ago
  
  > Do you think Lebanon will escalate by capturing prisoners?
  They sure don't seem motivated to stop, if Israel's pre-planned response is still fratricide: https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Hannibal_Directive
  
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  s1artibartfast 2 days ago
  
  if anything, Israel seems overly concerned with prisoner recovery, given the current situation in gaza and the Lebanon war
  
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