I think Netanyahu's champing at the bit for escalation, and there's plenty of precedent for relatively small things triggering big responses.
As a concrete example, the last big Israel-Lebanon war resulted from the capture of two Israeli soldiers in a border raid; https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2006_Lebanon_War
> Do you think Lebanon will escalate by capturing prisoners?
They sure don't seem motivated to stop, if Israel's pre-planned response is still fratricide: https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Hannibal_Directive
if anything, Israel seems overly concerned with prisoner recovery, given the current situation in gaza and the Lebanon war
> Do you think Lebanon will escalate by capturing prisoners?
It's certainly part of the playbook, if they can manage some captures. Soft targets seem a lot more likely, though.
> That said, I don't know what a path to peace with Hezbollah looks like.
This conflict is creating the next generation of orphaned rage-filled extremists. Peace is a very, very distant goal at this point.
> I think that netanyahu would be very happy to see a de-escalation on the northern border and it would be a big win for his cabinet.
I very much disagree. Netanyahu is on a treadmill he can't ever let stop; ending the emergency means having to properly face his long-delayed criminal proceedings (https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Trial_of_Benjamin_Netanyahu).
Do you think Lebanon will escalate by capturing prisoners? I agree that that could be an escalation given the context and history. That said, I don't know what a path to peace with Hezbollah looks like. It's hard to imagine Israel tolerating it imperfect ceasefire while Hezbollah continues to arm, given how that worked out with Hamas
I think that netanyahu would be very happy to see a de-escalation on the northern border and it would be a big win for his cabinet.