Comment by bhouston
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> This is the third comment on this thread you've written prosecuting the idea that Israel is on the eve of invading Lebanon. That's not very plausible.
Jerusalem Post, one of the major newspapers in Israel also believes that:
https://www.jpost.com/arab-israeli-conflict/article-820399
Ynet as well says Netanyahu wants the IDF to prepare for military campaign in Lebanon:
https://www.ynetnews.com/article/bje3pjv60
Times of Israel also says the IDF is pushing for a ground invasion now:
https://www.timesofisrael.com/top-general-said-pushing-for-g...
"Maj. Gen. Ori Gordin, the head of the Israel Defense Force’s Northern Command, is pressuring decision-makers to launch a large-scale incursion into Lebanon, while Gallant and IDF Chief of Staff Herzi Halevi have expressed doubts over launching a war against Hezbollah"
The internal politics is that Gallant doesn't want to, he wants a ceasefire in Gaza and a hostage deal, but Netanyahu is currently looking to replace him and Netanyahu doesn't want a ceasefire/hostage deal in Gaza:
https://www.timesofisrael.com/netanyahu-said-preparing-to-fi...
If Gallant goes, chance of war with Lebanon increases dramatically.
> Israel isn't mobilized to invade Lebanon and lacks the capacity to do so while engaged in Gaza.
Israel actually has almost no forces in Gaza right now - that isn't the problem. The IDF is much more committed militarily to the West Bank.
It is true there isn't yet a full scale mobilization of ground forces yet, but these wars usually start with air attacks while the ground mobilization occurs.
> These are a bunch of comments about what you believe Israel wants to do, not what it's capable of.
In this article from yesterday, you can clearly see Gallant and Netanyahu both support an invasion of Southern Lebanon, only that Gallant doesn't want to do it now.
The reporter says clearly: "the Israeli military and security cabinet have been ramping up preparations for a war against Hezbollah in Lebanon, which they hope would allow tens of thousands of displaced Israelis to return home"
https://www.axios.com/2024/09/16/israel-netanyahu-lebanon-he...
> You wrote, elsewhere on the thread, that Israel was set to take southern Lebanon in the near term. Israel is not mobilized to do anything like that.
Israeli newspaper are clearly saying that many in Israel are advocating for an invasion of Southern Lebanon because now is a good time. Here is a JNS article from today:
"IDF Maj. Gen. Ori Gordin has reportedly argued behind closed doors that current conditions are favorable for the IDF to swiftly implement such a move."
https://www.jns.org/idf-northern-chief-floats-israeli-buffer...
I think this willfully ignores the fact that Israel did occupy southern Lebanon for 15 years, never built a civilian settlement, and unilaterally withdrew from there under assurance from the UN that it would enforce an agreement to keep Hezbollah north of the Litani river, which the UN manifestly does not enforce.
From the article you linked to:
>> every policy expert I spoke with agreed that the chance that Israel would actually establish settlements in southern Lebanon is very low. Natasha Roth-Rowland, a scholar of the Israeli far right, explained that there simply isn’t the political will to advance settlements in Lebanon