Comment by tptacek
This is the third comment on this thread you've written prosecuting the idea that Israel is on the eve of invading Lebanon. That's not very plausible. Israel isn't mobilized to invade Lebanon and lacks the capacity to do so while engaged in Gaza.
> This is the third comment on this thread you've written prosecuting the idea that Israel is on the eve of invading Lebanon. That's not very plausible.
Jerusalem Post, one of the major newspapers in Israel also believes that:
https://www.jpost.com/arab-israeli-conflict/article-820399
Ynet as well says Netanyahu wants the IDF to prepare for military campaign in Lebanon:
https://www.ynetnews.com/article/bje3pjv60
Times of Israel also says the IDF is pushing for a ground invasion now:
https://www.timesofisrael.com/top-general-said-pushing-for-g...
"Maj. Gen. Ori Gordin, the head of the Israel Defense Force’s Northern Command, is pressuring decision-makers to launch a large-scale incursion into Lebanon, while Gallant and IDF Chief of Staff Herzi Halevi have expressed doubts over launching a war against Hezbollah"
The internal politics is that Gallant doesn't want to, he wants a ceasefire in Gaza and a hostage deal, but Netanyahu is currently looking to replace him and Netanyahu doesn't want a ceasefire/hostage deal in Gaza:
https://www.timesofisrael.com/netanyahu-said-preparing-to-fi...
If Gallant goes, chance of war with Lebanon increases dramatically.
> Israel isn't mobilized to invade Lebanon and lacks the capacity to do so while engaged in Gaza.
Israel actually has almost no forces in Gaza right now - that isn't the problem. The IDF is much more committed militarily to the West Bank.
It is true there isn't yet a full scale mobilization of ground forces yet, but these wars usually start with air attacks while the ground mobilization occurs.