Comment by seizethecheese 3 hours ago
This is a strange position to take. Sure, Polymarket has warts, but that doesn't mean it's not a very good source for consensus opinions about the future from the past. Do you think this market was manipulated?
Sure, but that’s not likely in this specific market, at least in enough size to make a difference to the main point here.
Open, public non-academic prediction markets basically exist to be manipulated by people with insider knowledge.
Filter out all the noise of people random ass guessing what will happen in the future and focus on people making big bets late in the game. That's your important "prediction".
See: Anonymous person who made $400,000 betting on Maduro being out of office, etc.
I'd be surprised if there weren't already people running HFT-like setups to look for these anomalously large late stage trades to piggyback their own bets on the insider information.
Search “Polymarket manipulated” or similar and examples are legion. You can even do that on hacker news. There’s a lot of incentive to do so.