Coding agents are successful products which generate billions of dollars of revenue from millions of paying customers.
The organizations that provide them lose money because of the R&D costs involved in staying competitive in the model training arms race.
The most important question is whether they make or lose money on each customer, independent of their fixed R&D costs.
If they make money on each customer they have a credible business - they could become profitable even with their existing R&D losses provided they can sign up enough new paying customers.
If they lose money on every customer - such that signing a $1m new enterprise account costs them $1.1m in server costs - then their entire "business" is a sham.
I currently believe that Anthropic make money on almost every customer, such that their business is legit.
I guess we'll have to wait for the IPO paperwork to find out if I'm right about that.
But humanity is gaining hugely productive (in financial terms) assets. It doesn't matter if the entity or its investors that created the asset goes kaboom.
Most of the investors and companies that built the rail network went bust. The iron remained.
Most of the investors and companies that built the telecom network went bust. The fiber remained.
Most of the investors and companies that are building models will go bust. The files (open weight or transfered to new owners for pennies) will remain, and yield economic benefits for as long as we flow current through them.
Revenue isn't profit.
Checking whether Claude Code by itself is profitable or not is probably impossible. It doesn't make a lot of sense divorcing R&D from the product. And obviously the running costs are not insignificant.
The company as a whole loses money.