Comment by nodesocket

Comment by nodesocket 2 days ago

I know HN always has its fair share of doomers, and generally the HN communities track record anecdotally regarding finance and the market is frankly terrible. Tesla (stock price wrong), Bitcoin (wrong), AI a huge dot com like bubble (wrong in my opinion - TBD though).

I’m optimistic on the US. We could realistically print a 5 handle GDP, oil at rock bottom prices, lower federal income taxes this year. As far as Gold and Silver I just see it being propped up by speculators. Silver spot is down 15% this mornings and gold down 8%.

I predict double digit gains in the S&P by end of year and strong financial conditions with mag 7 continuing their lead. Tesla also will be a big winner.

tonyedgecombe 2 days ago

At this point I think Tesla could sell zero cars this year and their stock price would still be astronomical.

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johnnyanmac 2 days ago

> We could realistically print a 5 handle GDP, oil at rock bottom prices, lower federal income taxes this year.

Ignoring everything else in terms of oredictions: the US simply doesn't have that spending buffer anymore to really outspend yet another crash. Its at what, 37 trillion right now? And it's only rising more and more by the month.

The only thing worse than a crash would be the US defaulting on that. And then we'd be screwed in ways that we don't recover from in any of our lifetimes. Nearly a century of trust and soft power completely down the drain.

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Ekaros 2 days ago

Even if they don't default. How long there is willing investors? Even if FED drops rates. It is an auction. So rates should be set there. But maybe printing will happen via bigger and bigger market operations. Leading higher and higher rates. With probably inflation... So I suppose valuations could go even higher...
I do not understand economics and from engineer perspective whole thing doesn't make much sense.

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