Comment by Noaidi

At any given moment there is always someone predicting that the economy will crash. So someone will always have predicted it. The question is do they actually have some insight or were they just lucky.

The issue is that you don't know magnitudes.

If the market go up 80% before dropping 20% then you want to have bought in.

Keep in mind that not only did people predict the housing crash, some were certain houses would be sold for pennies on the dollar.

I bought a short sale distressed town house in 2009 for 40% lower than its peak price, and many people told me it was a terrible decision because if I just waited long enough, I'd buy it for a fraction of the price.

I think prices went a bit lower in 2010, but then I gained about 400k in equity over the next 10 years and sold it.

> No one will ever get the timing right, but if you see the fundamental flaws of the economy, you know a crash is going to come.

If you know it's coming but don't know when then you don't know anything. Certainly not enough to bet on.

Gold and silver are likely to crash. I don't think they are big enough to cause a crash of the overall economy, though.

The Economist front page illustration of the 90s .com stock market, with the heading "CRASH DAMMIT!"

Everyone knew there was a bubble. People began to get impatient for what obviously was going to happen, as you say.