Comment by mschuster91

Comment by mschuster91 2 days ago

13 replies

> Gamers are still a huge factor as hardware customers.

They are but AI has fried the markets for RAM, SSDs and GPUs. Everything has gotten ridiculously expensive ever since the wash trading and the 100s of billions of $ worth of deals really took off.

Personally, I think at least one or two of the major GPU OEMs will go bust thanks to all of this, and I would be surprised if Framework, Pine64 and Steam's hardware line survive it. Hell, at the point we're at, I even have serious doubts the Xbox line survives.

vladvasiliu 2 days ago

Things have become crazy, indeed. I still kick myself for not buying the SSD I was eyeing in December, which has now went form 250 € to almost 400. I'm already maxed on RAM since a year ago, bought 64 GB for a fraction of today's cost.

But I still feel like we're still in the eye of the storm, and things will improve. Remember late 2020 when every useless GPU would command a fortune? I remember buying a used RX 5600 XT with a warranty somewhere around October for 300 €. A month later, it would cost at least twice as much, if you could even find one in stock. Last December I looked a bit at prices, and the current equivalent model (9060xt 16 GB) was roughly around 300 again, and I don't think it has gone up since. I understand there may be a shortage of equivalent Nvidia GPUs from a thread the other day, so this may change soon, again. I have no use for top-of-the-line models, so I'm not familiar with their prices and availability.

  • allworms 2 days ago

    A bit of a nitpick - that's not what the "eye of the storm" is. In fact, if you perceive RAM prices as leveling off, that would be the "eye of the storm", meaning a brief, deceptive calm surrounded by... storm.

    Truly I have seen not even a hint of reason to believe prices would come back down in the near term. Fab allocation is booked years out, and building out new manufacturing capabilities is difficult and slow. Everything I'm seeing points in the same direction: this is only going to keep getting worse for consumers month after month for a long time.

    • userulluipeste 2 days ago

      If the current RAM heavy buyers, the AI powerhouses investors, don't get the into a profitable state of business, then sustaining this rhythm "for a long time" becomes impossible. It won't matter much that "fab allocation is booked years out" if the client that expects the goods goes out of business, doesn't it? I, for one, don't find convincing hints that this free AI crazy partying will go on for long, so then what gives?

      • mschuster91 a day ago

        > If the current RAM heavy buyers, the AI powerhouses investors, don't get the into a profitable state of business, then sustaining this rhythm "for a long time" becomes impossible.

        Exactly that is the problem with the "pork cycle" we are seeing [1] - there aren't that many manufacturers and ODMs around nowadays for RAM, storage, CPUs and GPUs. The ecosystem was so much more vibrant even 10 years ago. When the AI bubble collapses, it will take the entire world's economy down the drain, and I think that quite a few of the brands we have now will be extinct after this iteration.

        [1] https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Pork_cycle

emsign 2 days ago

My next GPU will be from AMD, not just because I'm in the process of switching to Linux but I have a gut feeling that Nvidia doesn't see desktop GPUs as their priority anymore and support might diminish faster.

nottorp 2 days ago

Thing is, you don't need a GPU.

One of the major x86 manufacturers makes CPUs with integrated graphics that is good enough for gaming. It's in "Steam's hardware line" btw.

Oh yes, AAAs maybe won't run on that. But they're boring af anyway. And predatory. So not much loss.

  • drnick1 2 days ago

    > Thing is, you don't need a GPU.

    You would struggle to play any graphically intensive game, old or new, without at least a modest GPU. It's not only AAA.

    • luqtas 2 days ago

      modern igpus of laptops can run cyberpunk between 24-30 fps... if you target indies, your more than good

      • drnick1 2 days ago

        That's optimistic, and most probably 1080p low or medium without RT and with upscaling. Not exactly a great gaming experience by 2026 standards.

        • nottorp 2 days ago

          Do you play FPS and pixels?

          I play storylines and interesting mechanics.

  • Tsiklon 2 days ago

    Intel also sees the value in decent onboard GPUs now, their newly announced laptop processors have solid onboard GPUs too

  • bigstrat2003 2 days ago

    > Oh yes, AAAs maybe won't run on that.

    ...so you do need a GPU.

    • nottorp 2 days ago

      > ...so you do need a GPU.

      Well, for modern AAAs you also need to afford to pay for the IAPs. The GPU is the least of your problems.