Comment by elbasti

Comment by elbasti 3 days ago

8 replies

Elon's superpower is commanding insane valuation premiums. The trouble with this is that "the bill eventually comes due", so to speak, which forces Elon's companies to take wilder and wilder bets, or to make wilder and wilder promises.

With telsa it was robotaxis, and when that failed to materialize, humanoid robots (fucking LOL).

SpaceX is an even more insane example. They are eyeing an IPO at a 1.5 trillion valuation. And yet the market for satellite launches is simply not that big. (What would you do with a satellite, if I gifted you one for free?). Estimates have SpaceX doing about $3B in annual earnings, which would give them a 500x earnings multiple at a 1.5T valuation (Apple: 35).

And so SpaceX/Elon had to invent the absolutely idiotic idea of "data centers in space" to sell some future vision of tens of thousands of launches per year.

He keeps upping the ante (and the ridiculousness of the vision), and so far investors keep funding it.

Me? I've realized that this madness is entirely "opt-in" and I choose to simply...not opt-in.

rkagerer 3 days ago

What would you do with a satellite, if I gifted you one for free?

Let's forget orbital mechanics for a while to make this answer more fun. It would follow me around and provide a dedicated, private lifeline of communication anywhere I go, real-time aerial surveillance of my surroundings, and eventually lasers to zap anyone who pisses me off.

  • loosescrews 3 days ago

    Yes, and the reality is that any of those would require a fairly large constellation of satellites. I guess the play is that many large constellations of satellites will be launched.

    • asadotzler 3 days ago

      Not really. That's only the case for LEO sats. Going up higher gets you hemispheric coverage with a single bird.

      • XorNot 3 days ago

        You wouldn't like the latency on the internet connection. And this isn't even theoretical: it's why LEO constellations were a big deal.

        • [removed] 3 days ago
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code_for_monkey 3 days ago

the humanoid robots thing is so ridiculous, theres no way that comes to fruition

NetMageSCW 3 days ago

> Estimates have SpaceX doing about $3B in annual earnings

Ummm that information seems terribly out of date or is just uninformed- Starlink alone is estimated around $8 billion for 2024 and projected around $12 billion for 2025, with continued growth.

  • el_nahual 3 days ago

    That's revenue. Earnings (profit) is what's relevant, because as you can imagine putting stuff in space is pretty expensive!