Comment by api

Comment by api 3 days ago

37 replies

Consumer robotics strikes me as an engineering tar pit so deep it leads to hell. If full self driving is hard due to the long tail of unusual special cases, this is orders of magnitude worse.

Take FSD but multiply the number of actuators and degrees of freedom by at least 10, more like 100. Add a third dimension. Add direct physical interaction with complex objects. Add pets and children. Add toys on the floor. Add random furniture with non-standard dimensions. Add exposure to dust, dirt, water, grease, and who knows what else? Puke? Bleach? Dog pee?

Oh, and remove designated roads and standardized rules about how you're supposed to drive on those roads. There are no standards. Every home is arranged differently. People behave differently. Kids are nuts. The cat will climb on it. The dog may attack it. The pet rabbit will chew on any exposed cords.

We've all seen those Boston Dynamics robots. They're awesome but how durable would they be in those conditions? Would they last for years with day to day constant abuse in an environment like that?

From a pure engineering point of view (neglecting the human factor or cost) a home helper robot is almost definitely harder than building and operating a Mars base. We pretty much have all the core tech for that figured out: recycling atmosphere, splitting and making water, refining minerals, greenhouses, airlocks, and so on. As soon as we have Starship or another super heavy rocket that's reliable we could do it as long as someone was willing to write some huge checks.

And of course it's a totally untested market. We don't know how big it really is. Will people really be willing to pay thousands to tens of thousands for a home robot with significant limitations? Only about 25% of the market probably has the disposable income to afford these.

You'd have to go way up market first, but people up market can afford to just pay humans to do it.

thewebguyd 3 days ago

> Will people really be willing to pay thousands to tens of thousands for a home robot with significant limitations?

The answer to that is no, probably for the foreseeable future. The robot demos we have no can't even fold laundry or put dishes away without being teleoperated. Both extremely basic tasks that any household robot would be required to do, along with other messy jobs that put it at risk as you said: taking out the trash, feeding the pets, cleaning up messes, preparing or cooking food, etc.

The price it would have to cost with current tech would be astronomically more than just hiring a human, and they would almost certainly come with an expensive subscription as well, whereas I can hire a human to come in and clean my home weekly for about $200/month.

mekdoonggi 3 days ago

Also, how will these robots make money? They are a less capable human. Humans who aren't skilled don't make much money.

  • jfyi 3 days ago

    Humans who aren't skilled require training regardless of how "unskilled" the task is.

    Humans that are chronically unskilled also don't learn well, somewhat as a rule.

    Humans that don't make much money have a high turnover rate from burnout. Additionally, those that can learn typically leave for greener pastures.

    The bar isn't terribly high. Efficiency of scale in production will solve this eventually. I think the likely outcome is robots building themselves first.

  • Saline9515 3 days ago

    Almost all developed economies are running into a fertility crisis right now, with labor shortages already appearing in the frontrunners of the trend, such as Germany.

    Human work is going to cost more in the future, and immigration from countries such as Thailand or Vietnam is already slowing down. Even a mediocre robot will be sought after if it is the only choice you have.

    • mekdoonggi 2 days ago

      I understand that. It's my personal opinion that one of the causes of low birth rates is that we continually choose to have robots solve our problems instead of choosing a human.

      I think we could increase birth rates by making a taxation scheme in which the most marginally effective way to solve a problem is with a human, paid a wage which allows for that occupation to be a lifelong career.

  • Recurecur 2 days ago

    They’ll be bought/leased, providing direct profit. Also, there’ll be maintenance revenue. I think they’re expected to cost around $30K.

    In the case where they’re replacing a low-skill human worker, they’ll pay for themselves in 1-2 years…plus no sick days, no drug use, no theft, and they can work 24 hours a day, less any recharging time.

  • RankingMember 3 days ago

    Once large swaths of the planet have been rendered uninhabitable from human activity, we'll require them to continue extracting profit from those areas. (this is a downer comment but also realistically the first thing that came to mind when trying to think of a use for them).

foobarian 3 days ago

I think if they are teleoperated they could make sense, or at least more than the device-local versions

  • duskwuff 3 days ago

    A teleoperated robot is little more than a human worker with extra steps. (And an expensive, clumsy human worker at that.) I can't imagine many situations where that would make sense instead of having a human do the work in person.

    • OkayPhysicist 3 days ago

      I could see teleoperated help catching on. Americans are weird about staff. When I visit my old-world family, it's seen as perfectly normal to have someone living in an attached apartment, handling the cooking the cleaning, etc. There are well-established etiquette rules, understood both by the staff and the family, which help navigate the rather complicated, radically unequal relationship between the two.

      Americans by and large don't do that. We software developers have not that different of an income gap between us and minimum wage workers compared to my family overseas and their staff. Yet, it would be considered weird, extravagant even, for a $300-500k/yr developer to have dedicated help. We're far more comfortable with people we don't need to interact with directly, like housecleaners, landscapers, etc.

      Teleoperated robots sidestep that discomfort, somewhat, by obscuring the the humanity of the staff. It's probably not a particularly ethical basis for a product, but when has that ever stopped us.

    • dmurray 3 days ago

      Maybe you can scale to have one operator operate ten or a hundred household robots at a time.

      An autonomous robot that has 99% reliability, getting stuck once an hour, is useless to me. A semi-autonomous robot that gets stuck once an hour but can be rescued by the remote operator is tempting.

      Expect security and privacy in the marketing for these things, too, but I don't think that's a real differentiator. Rich and middle class people alike are currently OK with letting barely-vetted strangers in their houses for cleaning the world over.

      • duskwuff 3 days ago

        > Expect security and privacy in the marketing for these things, too

        Pitching "security and privacy" as features of a device that's remotely operated and monitored is going to be a very hard sell.

    • foobarian 3 days ago

      There could be some compelling reasons for one.

      - Services like maids or cleaners are usually scheduled, maybe you have to wait and open the door etc. Maybe they can't make it that day because of snow storm etc.

      - Services are normally limited to certain hours. With a remote operator, the robot could do laundry all night ran by someone in a different time zone.

      - If needed could be operated in shifts.

      - Other new use cases could arise, e.g. wellness check on elderly, help if fallen or locked out etc.

    • TylerE 3 days ago

      Low duty cycle. If one human can drive 20 robots, because most of them are sitting still most of The time, it starts to make sense. Vs a maid or butler that can obviously only really work one home at a time.

    • api 3 days ago

      The only places it does is where humans can't easily go: space, underwater, hazardous industrial sites, etc.

      It can occasionally make sense for high skill stuff where the shortage is people who can even do it, like remote surgery.

      In your house? That's silly. It'd be 100X more expensive and complicated than just hiring a housekeeper so you could... hire a remote housekeeper?

      • TylerE 3 days ago

        Except the remote house keeper can be in some super locl 3rd world country where the prevailing wage is a few bucks a day.

    • vel0city 3 days ago

      Yeah but with a teleoperated worker you can have them work remote from a place with poor labor regulations and extremely low pay.

      The future with this as a reality is a really dark place, where the uber wealthy live entirely disconnected from the working class except through telepresent machines half a planet away. That way the wealthy don't have to be inconvenienced by the humanity of the poors.

      • NetMageSCW 3 days ago

        Suddenly I think Musk is trying to turn Earth into Solaria.

lallysingh 3 days ago

If a robot can do basic cleaning, laundry, and dishes, that's worth a lot to a lot of people. Dual-professional households have the money, and not having to do this housework could save some marriages.

  • SpicyLemonZest 3 days ago

    I don't think it actually is worth a lot to people. I know dual-professional households who don't even use their dishwasher consistently, and multiple companies have gone bankrupt trying to bring automated laundry folding (which does exist in industry) to the consumer market.

    • NetMageSCW 3 days ago

      There are a lot of maid services that imply (to me) otherwise.

      • SpicyLemonZest 3 days ago

        Maid services are generally expected to handle "everything" for a pretty expansive definition of everything. They pick up scattered stuff and put in a sensible location, they arrange everything visible in an aesthetically pleasing way, they take out the trash, if there's some weird dirt that's hard to clean they creatively problem solve to find a way to get it off. I don't think there's a market for a service that can only handle basic cleaning.

        (Will someone eventually invent a machine that can do all of that and more? Yes, probably, and they'll make billions when they do. But Tesla has offered no reason to believe this is on their horizon, and the focus on a humanoid form factor strongly suggests that they're optimizing for media appeal over practical capabilities.)

      • mvdtnz 3 days ago

        Maids are paid a VERY low wage in exchange for being able to take on an almost unlimited list of general tasks, from folding laundry to managing kids to mopping stairs. We are decades away from robots with that capability, and they are intended to replace people who are often not making even minimum wage? Please. Get real.

  • demosito666 3 days ago

    Robot vacuum with a mop, washing machine, tumble dryer and dishwasher reduce housework to like an hour per week, ie 30 min/person/week. This can be higher if you live in a big house, but if your marriage can’t tolerate 30 mins of house work a robot will not solve it.

  • solid_fuel 3 days ago

    > Dual-professional households have the money, and not having to do this housework could save some marriages.

    Dual-professional households could hire a maid and pay for marriage counseling and still save money compared to a $20k robot plus whatever a subscription would run.

    • Saline9515 3 days ago

      Maids are unaffordable in most rich countries that do not have access to ultracheap foreign labor or/and have stringent labor regs.

      • solid_fuel 3 days ago

        What do you consider affordable?

        I can google "maid service seattle" and see dozens of entries. The first one in the yelp list is available to book and will clean a 1000 - 1500 sq ft, 2 bed, 2 bath house for well under $200. There's even a decent discount if you book is as a weekly or biweekly service.

        That feels pretty affordable? I know it's a scale, but minimum wage here is $21/hr now.

        I have enough time to take care of my own space, but for comparison Comcast internet is well over $120/month for crappy speeds. I think in comparison a little more than that for 1 deep cleaning a month is reasonable.

  • stickfigure 3 days ago

    Nobody has yet demonstrated a stationary robot that can do these things.

    They're all legs. The impressive demos are just show, not useful.

throwawayqqq11 3 days ago

The first MVPs dont need to reach parity to human autonomy, they only need to enforce that humans do the cheap work.