Comment by mrtksn

Comment by mrtksn 4 days ago

38 replies

TBH the last 20-30 years was exactly like that but computers were eliminating other peoples jobs for really good profits for the investors and really good salaries for the workers doing the elimination. Before that people were eliminating blue colar workers with highly productive machines and industrial robots.

I don't see how eliminating your co-workers is any different. Software ate the world and now AI will eat the "software professionals".

When this is over, just like the rust belts there will be code belts where once highly valued software developers will be living in decaying neighborhoods and the politicians will be promising to create software jobs by banning AI.

3acctforcom 4 days ago

I kill jobs for a living, and always wondered when the promise of "Low code" would kill my job.

Turns out AI reduces the barrier juuuuuuuust enough for competent managers and clerks to automate their own processes.

Thank god most managers aren't competent, I might just make it to retirement.

risyachka 4 days ago

>> AI will eat the "software professionals"

you mean AI will eat everyone, because if software professionals will be automated - all other white collar jobs will be too via software.

And then all resources will be poured in hardware and blue collar jobs will be automated too, at least those that have more value.

  • LPisGood 4 days ago

    That’s the thing here. Software engineering is an intelligence-complete problem. If AI can solve it, then it can solve any sort of knowledge work like accounting, financial analysis, etc

    • sfink 4 days ago

      Only if by "solving it", you mean being able to write any program to do anything.

      Software engineering is a hubris-complete problem. Somehow, being able to do so much seems to make us all assume that everyone else is capable of so little. But just because we can write 1000 programs to do 1000 different things, and because AI can write 1000 programs to do 1000 different things, it doesn't mean that we can write the million other programs that do a million other things. That would be like assuming that because someone is a writer and has written 1 book, that they are fully capable of writing both War & Peace and an exhaustive manual on tractor repair.

      Financial analysis is not easier than programming. You don't feed in numbers, turn a crank, and get out correct answers. Some people do only that, and yeah, AI can probably replace them.

      "Computing" as a field only made sense when computers were new. We're going to have to go back to actually accomplishing things, not depending on the fact that computers are involved and making them do anything is hard so anyone who can make them do things is automatically valuable. (Which sucks for me, because I'm pretty good at making computers do things but not so good at much of anything else with economic value.) "What do you do?" "I use computers to do X." "Why didn't you just say you do X, then?" is already kind of a thing; now it's going to move on to "I use AI to do X."

      Then again: the AI-dependent generation is losing the ability to think, as a result of leaning on AI to do it for them. So while my generation stuck the previous generation with maintaining COBOL programs, the next generation will stick mine with thinking. I can deal with that. I like thinking.

      </end-of-weird-rant>

      • LPisGood 4 days ago

        > Financial analysis is not easier than programming. You don't feed in numbers, turn a crank, and get out correct answers

        It’s not, but if software engineering is solved then of course so is financial analysis, because a program could be written to do it. If the program is not good enough, then software engineering is not solved.

        I think this what you were getting at with this part, but it’s not clear to me, because it seems like you were disagreeing with my thesis: “ because AI can write 1000 programs to do 1000 different things, it doesn't mean that we can write the million other programs that do a million other things”

        I’m not sure if you’re saying that people weren’t using computers to solve problems before, but that’s pretty much everything they do. Some people were specifically trained to make computers solve problems, but if computers can solve X problem without a programmer, then both the computer programmer and the X problem solver are replaced.

      • jayers 4 days ago

        This is the crux of it. The digital world doesn't produce value except when it eases the production of real goods. Software Development as a field is strange: it can only produce value when it is used to make production of real goods more efficient. We can use AI to cut out bureaucratic work, which then means that all that is left is real work: craftsmanship, relationship building, design, leadership.

        There are plenty of "human in the loop" jobs still left. I certainly don't want furniture designed by AI, because there is no possible way for an AI to understand my particular fleshly requirements (AI simply doesn't have the wetware required to understand human tactile needs). But the bureaucratic jobs will mostly be automated away, and good riddance. They were killing the human spirit.

      • apsurd 4 days ago

        I value your weird rant. Yes it did go on as a thought stream, but there's sense in there.

        I've been thinking a lot around a kind of smart-people paradox: very intellectual arguments all basically plotting a line toward some inevitable conclusion like super intelligence or consciousness. Everything is a raw compute problem.

        While at the same time all scientific progress gives us more and more evidence that reality is non-computable, non linear.

    • gedy 4 days ago

      You are right, but I think at the moment, a lot of people are confusing "software engineering" with "set up my react boilerplate with tailwind and unit tests", and AI just is way better for that sort of rote thing.

      I've never felt comfortable with the devs who just want some Jira ticket with exactly what to do. That's basically what AI/LLMs can do pretty well.

      • LPisGood 4 days ago

        Those people have always annoyed the hell out of me and I would prefer to not work with them.

  • poulpy123 3 days ago

    You're right. I think the current AI direction is a dead end for real artificial intelligence, so it is not the thing that will replace all jobs, but the day a machine with the real cognitive capacity of a 5 year old exists is the day almost all of humanity becomes useless.

    And before that the current direction is still enough to massively hurt the world because there will be less and less places for us humans.

    Another point I noticed that nobody is talking around us is the technology adoption rates. When the car industry started, decades happened between the early users and cars being ubiquitous in the population (especially taking into account the world and not the richest countries). So a sizeable part of the transportation industry that was ultimately replaced by cars had the time to adapt, move to other jobs or arrive at the end of their work life.

    But now the technology goes from its few first users to being used by everyone and their cats in years if not months. There is absolutely no time to adapt, love over or endure things until you don't work anymore.

  • mrtksn 4 days ago

    Software was already at its limits on automation, the last thing automated will be writing code that does the required thing but automating other stuff that wasn’t already automated by software will take some time because will require AI advances in those particular domains.

  • Buttons840 4 days ago

    Once an AI runs a single company well, all publicly traded companies will have a legal obligation to at least consider replacing the C-suite with AI. In theory. I'll believe it when I see it.

chrysoprace 4 days ago

There might be a time when software developers become obsolete, and I don't pretend to know the future, but if today's models are anything to go by then it won't happen any time soon.

At the end of the day, there'll still be a need for highly skilled technical experts, whatever that job looks like.

  • ChoGGi 4 days ago

    I'll be curious to see how the next generation of highly skilled technical experts will be raised.

    • hkt 4 days ago

      I have a nasty suspicion that far fewer of them will be, that CS and SE based professions will end up collapsing and consolidating into a handful of AI megacorporations and a guild-like elite of AI-herders will be what's left.

      • SgtBastard 3 days ago

        Guilds of Knowledge hoarders and AI adepts are my bet as well.

    • poulpy123 3 days ago

      That's an interesting paradox of the current AI: useful enough to make the industry less competent (either directly by helping students to not learn or indirectly by replacing people in entry level formative jobs) while not being smart enough to replace all the chain to the top

  • iJohnDoe 4 days ago

    > software developers become obsolete

    > there’ll still be a need for highly skilled technical experts

    Two different things.

    Yes, many, many software developers will become obsolete in certain industries. It’s already happening. Putting on blinders doesn’t make it go away.

    Yes, highly skilled technical experts will absolutely still be needed.

  • geodel 4 days ago

    > At the end of the day, there'll still be a need for highly skilled technical experts, whatever that job looks like.

    Well, this is kind of obvious right. Highly skilled people of next generation will do fine. The point is millions of highly skilled successful people of today could soon be below average category, jobless and can be called clueless, stuck in old ways who didn't simply see what is happening in the world.

    And I am not blaming anyone. Despite seeing changes coming even I am not able to do much either. Just hilariously trying to do "cloud technology" courses which folks did decades back, made money and by now even forgot about it.

    • tokioyoyo 4 days ago

      > Highly skilled people of next generation will do fine.

      I would bet for the opposite. In a huge rush to optimization and job elimination, early career people suffer the most. However it also makes it impossible to switch careers, start from scratch, and etc.

    • chrysoprace 4 days ago

      In my experience, many highly experienced professionals are already below average. That's not to say they don't work hard, but if their solutions are on par or worse than what an LLM can produce, then they might see themselves out of a job if the LLM can work harder.

      As another commenter said, we'll likely see a big change on the junior end, which will affect the more experienced hire pool as time goes on.

  • rayiner 4 days ago

    > At the end of the day, there'll still be a need for highly skilled technical experts, whatever that job looks like.

    Why? There was a time when there was a need for highly skilled seamstresses. And we never developed the technology to do their jobs as well as they could. But people just learned to deal with mass produced clothes that didn’t fit perfectly because it was so much cheaper.

    • snowwrestler 4 days ago

      Not sure what the point is here because highly skilled seamstress is still a well-paying job, and all the mass-produced clothes are also still sewn by hand.

      • AngryData 4 days ago

        Where do you live that skilled seamstress is such a valuable job? Just because a handful of people make bank doesn't mean there is some large unfilled market for those skills. I can find some highly paid blacksmiths too, but 99% of people who know how to blacksmith well will never make more than a paltry sum if anything at all off of it.

        • hattmall 4 days ago

          Pretty much anywhere being a competent seamstress pays well. The difference between highly skilled and competent is open to interpretation. The difference between being competent and the very basics that can assemble cut and sew patterns is huge though. Pretty much anyone can do cut and sew with like a week of training which is all the mass produced clothes.

          But someone who is competent and can do quality alterations, mending, customize patterns etc, is going to make decent money. But I'm pretty sure where ever you live there are seamstress working and making good money.

          I'm not even really sure where automation would have impacted being a seamstress. Sewing machines have been around since the 1700's and if anything the demand for textiles has increased more than the speed of production.

          Maybe you are thinking more of knitting, which is highly automated and used to be a big job, now it's basically just a hobby.

          Blacksmiths just evolved to modern day welders, iron workers, boilermakers etc. Still pays well.

carlcortright 4 days ago

this is a very pessimistic take

could be, but the universe is odd in so many different ways

it's hard to be sure

  • izzydata 4 days ago

    It feels more like a really optimistic take on AI. I won't say it is impossible, but I haven't seen anything that suggests AI is going to do what OpenAI and Nvidia claims it will.

  • [removed] 4 days ago
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Bombthecat 3 days ago

Ha, that was exactly my thoughts to! Code is turning into a commodity. Nothing special anymore or something you need to protect. It's turning into cheap coal.

rayiner 4 days ago

They should reboot Silicon Valley with this premise.