Comment by dylan604

Comment by dylan604 5 days ago

13 replies

> I think most of it comes down to people staying home

Obama was able to get people motivated. Neither Biden nor Harris had anywhere near that motivating ability. I don't know that the Dems have anyone as motivating as Obama line up. The Dems seem to be hoping that enough people will be repulsed by the current admin to show up.

SV_BubbleTime 5 days ago

> Obama was able to get people motivated. Neither Biden nor Harris had anywhere near that

How do you explain Biden getting so many more votes than Obama even while Trump improved with black and Hispanics over past Republican candidates?

  • ceejayoz 5 days ago

    > How do you explain Biden getting so many more votes than Obama

    US population in 2008: 304 million

    US population in 2020: 332 million

    https://www.macrotrends.net/global-metrics/countries/usa/uni...

    Barring enormous turnout differences, pretty much every US election gets more raw votes than the last.

    • SV_BubbleTime 4 days ago

      Interesting theory, explain 2024 when the total went down.

      Simple enough explanation… 2020 was a massive outlier.

      If you forgotten, the topic is GP saying Biden didn’t motivate voters. Well, that does not seem correct.

      • ceejayoz 4 days ago

        2024 was a massive outlier. First black woman ever, and the first time a candidate got swapped out mid-campaign. You can't extrapolate much from that one.

      • Zak 4 days ago

        I think people were highly motivated in 2020 because of Trump, not Biden. The turnout would have been similar for any credible candidate running against Trump.

        What's weird to me is that a lot of people lost that motivation over the next four years. If they found Trump scary in 2020, they should have found him scary in 2024.

mikkupikku 5 days ago

Newsom is an extremely strong candidate. Vance has several critical vulnerabilities that can demoralize right wing voters if the election is handled properly, and the Republicans really don't have anybody else. Rubio maybe, but Rubio won't be able to get ahead of Vance.

  • SV_BubbleTime 5 days ago

    > Newsom is an extremely strong candidate.

    For what office? President? Do you live in California?

  • dylan604 5 days ago

    Trump had more than several critical vulns as well which did not dissuade voters. The electorate isn't as predictable as many try to make it sound

    • mikkupikku 5 days ago

      Trump was able to moralize his voters, despite his weaknesses, by using a kind of charisma that Vance utterly lacks.