Comment by bastawhiz

Comment by bastawhiz 3 hours ago

4 replies

A dozen $7B nuclear plants is $84B, which is incidentally almost exactly the estimated cost of the SF-Gilroy-Palmdale plan for California's high speed rail. If you count all of phase 1, the P50 estimated cost goes up to $106B. That's the equivalent of 15 nuclear plants.

China has over 28 plants in progress, which should provide a total of >32GW of capacity when they're completed. That's 32×24×365= 280TWh of electricity per year. California's total electric grid in 2024 produced 216TWh.

Which is to say, $7B is a huge sum. But as far as infrastructure goes, China is currently building 130% of all of California's generation capacity that'll be complete within a decade or so, for much less than double the estimates for a high speed rail system that'll serve almost nobody by 2038.

$7B is a lot of money. But it's actually a very reasonable amount of money because the projects are actually happening. 28 $7B projects in the US are actually probably closer to a trillion dollars in investment for far less net public good over five times the timeline.

testing22321 2 hours ago

I agree, but if a developed country could get the price down to $15 billion a pop in the next two decades it would be a miracle.

Not to mention you wouldn’t generate a single kW for 20+ years from today.

In theory they’re fantastic. In reality not so much (which, incidentally, is the same story for the CA HSr)

  • bastawhiz an hour ago

    In April Reuters reported that China approved ten plants for $27B (total):

    https://www.reuters.com/sustainability/boards-policy-regulat...

    Whether they run over budget (or whether this is an under inflated figure) is yet to be seen, but it would seem that China is bringing the cost down, and substantially.

    I'm not a nuclear expert by any means, but from the reading I've done, they're largely designing and building the reactors themselves these days. And it seems that to help keep the cost low (among other reasons), they're also helping other countries build them.

    • testing22321 an hour ago

      Yes, China have a good shot at doing it because they are building 33 simultaneously now and they have questionable workers rights and environmental policies.

      As I said, if a developed country can do half what they’re doing (ie twice the price and double the construction time) in the next 20 years it would be a miracle.

ynx0 2 hours ago

Very insightful, this helped put things into perspective.