Comment by smokel

You could probably find a good answer anywhere, but the solution is in a more nuanced view.

Some types of programming benefit more from AI tooling than others. For example, prototyping seems to be the most fruitful area. Also, writing small utilities is much easier, to the extent that a two hour job would now take only a few minutes. That's where you get the multiplier posts from.

But working in a large codebase using proprietary libraries is not a solved problem for AI (yet).

It's just that the average engineer does not spend all of their time on things that can be sped up.

Speeding up 1% of your time by a factor 20 simply does not help very much. But for some roles, I'm sure that a 10% net increase in productivity is realistic.