Comment by 10xDev
Comment by 10xDev 2 hours ago
Meanwhile the economy is tanking. But yeah what a fantastic year it is to be a company worth trillions.
Comment by 10xDev 2 hours ago
Meanwhile the economy is tanking. But yeah what a fantastic year it is to be a company worth trillions.
I think we should start separating discussion of “The Economy” from “human prosperity and wellbeing.” Because they are essentially two different things, only slightly related. The Economy can grow wildly while normal people are poor, suffering, and barely holding it together. I don’t care if corporations are doing great or if the GDP is high, if everything I need costs 3X what it used to and Im not sure if I’ll be employed next week.
While you are probably right in that The Economy, technically is growing, it doesn’t feel like it to normal people I know.
Meanwhile, consumer debt is at record highs.
> consumer debt is at record highs.
While consumer debt is at or near historical highs, it is in and of itself not a problem (broader economic risk).
What you need to look at as well is debt burden ratios and repayment behavior, not just raw totals.
Household debt service ratio (the share of disposable income spent on principal + interest payments) is well below historical crisis peaks (e.g., 2007–2008), suggesting households are currently spending a smaller share of income on debt payments than in past stress periods.
While total household debt is at record levels (~$18 trillion+), debt as a share of income or GDP has not reached past crisis peaks like 2008. That means debt growth hasn’t outpaced income growth as dramatically as in previous crises.
However, delinquency rates, especially for credit cards and student loans, are elevated, nearing or exceeding long-run highs outside recessions.
Mortgage delinquency rates remain lower than unsecured debt categories, but have ticked up slightly. Because they're relatively stable, it mutes broader systemic risk for now.
The new problem with GDP is we can no longer trust government numbers.
1 - https://www.pbs.org/newshour/politics/trump-seeks-to-fire-bu...
> The old problem with metrics like GDP, is that they consider the whole but not the parts, it is kinda saying that I and Musk have billions in wealth, but I am in debt.
Does this mean you also think that "the (US) economy is tanking" OR do you agree with me that the economy is NOT tanking?
Anyone who trusts numbers coming out of the Trump admin is in for a big surprise.
I'm not sure that the rest of the economy really is "tanking" but OK. Are you implying it's distasteful to discuss success from a big company in such dark times?
Google could really easily be a purely rent seeking business but they are innovating, and if you are worried about the economy then this should seem like good news.
Truth be told, it is more complicated than a "tanking" economy so you will get headlines like this: https://www.bbc.com/news/articles/c62n9ynzrdpo but that's because it is a K-shaped economy: https://www.theguardian.com/business/2025/dec/07/stock-price... thanks to the stock market and AI investment. The job market especially for entry level tech jobs is also essentially screwed whether that's due to AI or something else, who even knows anymore: https://www.aljazeera.com/economy/2025/12/16/us-unemployment...
There has been a lot of discussion on this recently in the blog-o-sphere. All conclusions I've seen so far are that the economy is basically fine and maybe people's expectations have risen (I'm oversimplifying). I'm also quite eager to hear different conclusions, because there is a lot of cognitive dissonance on the economy right now.
- https://www.slowboring.com/p/you-can-afford-a-tradlife
- https://www.slowboring.com/p/affordability-is-just-high-nomi...
- https://thezvi.substack.com/p/the-revolution-of-rising-expec...
- https://open.substack.com/pub/astralcodexten/p/vibecession-m...
> Meanwhile the economy is tanking.
NYT: US GDP Grew 4.3%, surging in 3rd Quarter 2025 - https://www.nytimes.com/2025/12/23/business/us-economy-consu...
WSJ: Consumers Power Strongest US Economic Growth in 2 years - https://www.wsj.com/economy/us-gdp-q3-2025-2026-6cbd079e
The Guardian: US economy grew strongly in third quarter - https://www.theguardian.com/business/2025/dec/23/us-economy-...