Comment by bodge5000
This is the exact kind of thinking that got us into this mess in the first place, and I'm not blaming you for it, it seems to be something all of us do to an extent. We don't look to Meta, who only a few years ago thought that the Metaverse would be the "next big thing" as an example of failure to identify the future, we look to IBM who made that mistake almost 30 years ago. Underestimating a technology seems to stick much harder than overestimating one.
If you want to be seen as relevant in this industry, or as a kind of "thought leader", the easy trick seems to be to hype up everything. If you do that and you're wrong, people will quickly forget. If you don't and you're wrong, that will stain your reputation for decades.
The amount of hate I've received here for similar statements is astonishing. What is even more astonishing is that it takes 3-rd grade math skills to work out that the current AI(even ignoring the fact that there is nothing intelligent about the current AI) costs are astronomical and they do not deliver on the promises and everyone is operating at wild loses. At the moment we are at "if you owe 100k to your bank, you have a problem but if you owe 100M to your bank, your bank has a problem". It's the exact same bullshitter economy that people like musk have been exploiting for decades: promise a ton, never deliver, make a secondary promise for "next year", rinse and repeat -> infinite profit. Especially when you rope in fanatical followers.