Comment by Archelaos

Comment by Archelaos 8 hours ago

3 replies

Gartner estimates that worldwide AI spending will total 1.5 Trillion US$ in 2025.[1] As of 2024, global GDP per year is 111.25 Trillion US$.[2] The question is how much this can be increased by AI. This describes the market volumn for AI. Todays investments have a certain lifespan, until they become obsolet. For custom software I would estiamte that it is 6-8 years. AI investments should be somewhere in this range.

Taking all this into consideration, the investment volumn does not look oversized to me -- unless one is quite pessimistic about the impact of AI on global GDP.

[1] https://www.gartner.com/en/newsroom/press-releases/2025-09-1...

[2] https://data.worldbank.org/indicator/NY.GDP.MKTP.CD

andruby 4 hours ago

To increase the GDP you also need people to spend money. With the general population earning relatively less, I'm not sure the GDP increase will be that substantial.

It's all going to cause more inflation and associated reduction in purchasing power due to stale wages.

i000 8 hours ago

What makes you think that this 'surplus' GDP will be captured by those who do the investments?

mh8h 8 hours ago

except that a big chunk of the AI investments is going into buying GPUs that go obsolete much earlier than the 6-8 year time frame.