Comment by maxglute

Comment by maxglute 17 hours ago

E: last reply

TW is not a territory dispute, it's a unsolved civil war, i.e. PRC is not intending to split territory with TW, like other disputes, TW is winner takes all.

What PRC claims from India is not what PRC actually wants. PRCs offered package swap deal with India for decades (and imo continues to be) with India was "east for west". PRC gets 40k sqkm Aksai China claims it currently defacto controls, basically empty land where no one lives. India gets Arunachal Pradesh, i.e. what India defacto controls, the state. AKA just formalize border at where both sides controls, there's no actual PRC interest in AP the state and the people, because is as you recognized ridiculous.

AP just barginning chip for "east for west" swap, same with PRC claims on Tawang that India + western media likes to play up as some Dalai + Tawang super combo to threaten PRC Tibet succession crisis. Reality is Tibet is no longer a restive region, it's been thoroughly securitized and PRC can print their own dalai lama and rule Tibetians as they see fit. It's just another pressure point because India taking 20 rounds of talks and 40+ years have gotten nowhere leaves no option but accept the status quo - which PRC doesn't want, they want to ratify borders - hence pile on pressure via salami slicing for India to accept package deal.

Ultimately I think PRC fine with "east for west". All China wants is their bit of tundra for G219 highway to connect Xinjiang and Tibet. They don't want some full Indian state and the people and the resources, because that's also logistically ridiculous. PRC is not going to go over the Tibetan plateau to mine untapped resources in AP when they have entire Tibetan plateau to mine.

TLDR Indian media keeps insinuating PRC wants all of AP when PRC doesn't, it just wants the border formalized at current occupation/administered areas (i.e. no mass people resettlement needed). Just ratify borders and stop encouraging tibetan exile shenanigans, same way India doesn't like Canada entertaining Khalistanis. no need to go back to pre dalai lama asylum hindi chini bhai bhai, but also no paitence to wait another 20/50/forever years.

lenkite 17 hours ago

I am aware its your last reply, but you are rather wrong on this point:

> TLDR Indian media keeps insinuating PRC wants all of AP when PRC doesn't, it just wants the border formalized at current occupation/administered areas

This is wrong. This was confirmed by China themselves. Latest Chinese actions included issuing Chinese names for towns, mountains and rivers in Arunachal Pradesh - continued assertion of demands, even after talks. This includes detainment of state citizens unless they acknowledge to be part of China and get a Chinese Visa. PRC most certainly wants Arunachal Pradesh and also apparently its citizens - can you point me to a single source otherwise ?

There was also no mention in any of the >20 recent talks - even in Chinese media - of any package swap of Aksai Chin for Arunachal Pradesh. Today PRC states clearly that all of Arunachal is "Zangnan" / "South Tibet".

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maxglute 15 hours ago

Not confirmation, that's continued salami slicing sheninagans i.e. cartographic normalization and stapled visas instead of stamped visas to delegitmize AP citizenship. PRC will always rhetorically state AP is south Tibet because that's just how geopolitics works, you don't preemptively concede you don't claim something you claim even if said claim is to get something else because that weakens claim. PRC will always publically hold position all of AP is Tibet, i.e. maximalist bargaining position, until package swap is accepted first behind close doors because anything else weakens claim.
Package swap deals is not something offered in low level talks, it's leader to leader offer, i.e. Zhou Enlai to Nehru, Deng Xiaoping to Ghandi. Modi's been dipping meeting Xi (or vice versa if you want) until last year, right before trump2 and it's been rollercoaster geopolitics. Until India, PRC, US triangulation / dynamic becomes cleares and Xi/Modi relations normalize the only thing boundry talks do is what it always does, maintainence work with some progress towards normalize relations where high level boundary talks can start, as in actual formal settlement, not LAC management homework, i.e. we're past generals talking in tents to ministers meeting in capital, and maybe one day leaders discussing swap.
In the meantime, in addition to talks, the new normal PRC wants to set is to continue adding pressure via salami slice and rachet pressure because PRC isn't interested in settling for status quo (talks) where nothing happens, i.e. India wanting pre 2020 status quota ante, basically PRC perceives to be (decades of) deliberate stalling, so PRC will continue to add pressure so situation doesn't settle into unproductive status quo ante dynamic again. Bluntly it is better for PRC if PRC/India draws blood every once in a while to keep the pressure up because that might lead to earlier settlement than the alternative, drawing patrol routes and words which hasn't lead anywhere. Anything that can move the settlment clock forward.
E: alright really last reply, you can believe what you want. But ultimately, ask yourself, do you think PRC can invade and hold Arunachal Pradesh, through Assam Himalayas. Exceedingly unlikely, geographically logistics harder to sustain than TW. It's more trouble than it's worth.

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