Comment by lateforwork

Comment by lateforwork 16 hours ago

16 replies

OpenAI has already lined up enormous long-term commitments — over $500 billion through initiatives like Stargate for U.S. data centers, $250 billion in spending on Microsoft Azure cloud services, and tens of billions on AMD’s plan to deliver 6 GW of Instinct GPUs. Meanwhile, Oracle has financed its role in Stargate with at least $18 billion in corporate bonds plus another $9.6 billion in bank loans, and analysts expect its total capital need for these AI data centers could climb toward $100 billion.

The risk is straightforward: if OpenAI falls behind or can’t generate enough revenue to support these commitments, it would struggle to honor its long-term agreements. That failure would cascade. Oracle, for example, could be left with massive liabilities and no matching revenue stream, putting pressure on its ability to service the debt it already issued.

Given the scale and systemic importance of these projects — touching energy grids, semiconductor supply chains, and national competitiveness — it’s not hard to imagine a future where government intervention becomes necessary. Even though Altman insists he won’t seek a bailout, the incentives may shift if the alternative is a multi-company failure with national-security implications.

techblueberry 13 hours ago

"Even though Altman insists he won’t seek a bailout"

No matter what Sam Altman's future plans are, the success of those future plans is entirely dependent on him communicating now that there is a 0% chance those future plans will include a bailout.

greedo 15 hours ago

OpenAI doesn't have $500 billion in commitments lined up, it's promising to spend that much over 5 years... That's a helluva big difference than having $500B in revenue incoming.

  • __turbobrew__ 13 hours ago

    Data centers take time to build. The capital investment to build these DCs is needed now in expectation that future revenue streams will pay for that capital.

  • Tycho 14 hours ago

    Commitments here means money that people have agreed to lend them in future.

    • staticman2 9 hours ago

      Does it mean have agreed to lend them in a binding agreement that OpenAI can sue to enforce?

BeFlatXIII 15 hours ago

I'm hoping for Congressional gridlock to save us from bailing out a cascading failure. The harder it hits, the better.

sholain 5 hours ago

"it would struggle to honor its long-term agreements. That failure would cascade. Oracle, for example, could be left with massive liabilities and no matching revenue stream,"

No, there's a not of noise about this but these are just 'statements of intent'.

Oracle very intimately understands OpenAI's ability to pay.

They're not banking $50B in chips and then waking up naively one morning to find out OpenAI has no funding.

What will 'cascade' is maybe some sentiment, or analysts expectations etc.

Some of it, yes, will be a problem - but at this point, the data centre buildout is not an OpenAI driven bet - it's a horizontal be across tech.

There's not that much risk in OpenAI not raising enough to expand as much as it wants.

Frankly - a CAPEX slowdown will hit US GDP growth and freak people out more than anything.

maxilevi 16 hours ago

most of them are non binding letters of intent, i don't think it's as trite as you put it

  • caminante 15 hours ago

    The government bailout part doesn't even kick in until they sink enough to need trillions of annual revenue.

    Skepticism is easy.

PantaloonFlames 8 hours ago

At first I read “enormous longterm commitments” as customers committing to OpenAI. But you are saying it’s the reverse.

scrollop 14 hours ago

This is all based on the LLM architecture that likely can't reach AGI.

If they aren't developing in parallel an alternative architecture than can reach AGI, when a/some companies develop such a new model, OpenAI are toast and all those juicy contracts are kaput.

pphysch 16 hours ago

Last week's announced Genesis Mission from the Department of Energy could be the vehicle for this bailout.

1. Government will "partner" (read: foot the bill) for these super-strategic datacenters and investments promised by OpenAI.

2. The investments are not actually sound and fail, but it's the taxpayer that suffers.

3. Mr. Altman rides off into the sunset.

ur-whale 16 hours ago

> the incentives may shift if the alternative is a multi-company failure with national-security implications.

Sounds like a golden opportunity for GOOG to step over the corpse of OpenAI and take over for cents on the dollar all of the promises the now defunct ex-leader of AI made.

ijidak 14 hours ago

Isn't the NVIDIA-TSMC duopoly the problem here?

The cost of these data centers and ongoing inference is mostly the outrageous cost of GPUs, no?

I don't understand why the entire industry isn't looking to diversify the GPU constraint so that the hardware makers drop prices.

Why no industry initiative to break NVIDIA's strangehold and next TSMC's?

Or are GPUs a small line item in the outrageous spend companies like OpenAI are committing to?

  • layer8 12 hours ago

    Because it would take many years, and Google is using its own TPUs anyway.