Comment by mokarma 17 hours ago
Quote from the CEO of Anthropic in March 2025: "I think we'll be there in three to six months where AI is writing 90% of the code and then in 12 months we may be in a world where AI is writing essentially all of the code"
At an individual level, I think it is for some people. Opus/Sonnet 4.5 can tackle pretty much any ticket I throw at it on a system I've worked on for nearly a decade. Struggles quite a bit with design, but I'm shit at that anyway.
It's much faster for me to just start with an agent, and I often don't have to write a line of code. YMMV.
Sonnet 3.7 wasn't quite at this level, but we are now. You still have to know what you're doing mind you and there's a lot of ceremony in tweaking workflows, much like it had been for editors. It's not much different than instructing juniors.
From the article, Claude Code is being used extensively to develop Bun already.
> Over the last several months, the GitHub username with the most merged PRs in Bun's repo is now a Claude Code bot. We have it set up in our internal Discord and we mostly use it to help fix bugs. It opens PRs with tests that fail in the earlier system-installed version of Bun before the fix and pass in the fixed debug build of Bun. It responds to review comments. It does the whole thing.
You do still need people to make all the decisions about how Bun is developed, and to use Claude Code.
> You do still need people to make all the decisions about how Bun is developed, and to use Claude Code.
Yeah but do you really need external hires to do that? Surely Anthropic has enough experienced JavaScript developers internally they could decide how their JS toolchain should work.
Actually, this is thinking too small. There's no reason that each developer shouldn't be able to customize their own developer tools however they want. No need for any one individual to control this, just have devs use AI to spin up their own npm-compatible package management tooling locally. A good day one onboarding task!
"Wasting" is doing a lot of work in that sentence.
They're effectively bringing on a team that's been focused on building a runtime for years. The models they could throw at the problem can't be tapped on the shoulder, and there's no guarantee they'd do a better job at building something like Bun.
Deciding what to Implement
and
Implementing the Decisions
are complementary, one of these is being commoditised.
And, in fact, decimated.
Personally I am benefitting almost beyond measure because I can spend my time as the architect rather than the builder.
Same. I don’t understand how people aren’t getting this yet. I’m spending all day thinking, planning and engineering while spending very little time typing code. My productivity is through the roof. All the code in my commits is of equal quality to what I would produce myself, why wouldn’t it be? Sure one can just ask AI to do stuff and not review it and iterate, but why on earth would one do that? I’m starting to feel that anyone who’s not getting this positive experience simply isn’t good at development to begin with.
Maybe he was correct in the extremely literal sense of AI producing more new lines of code than humans, because AI is no doubt very good at producing huge volumes of Stuff very quickly, but how much of that Stuff actually justifies its existence is another question entirely.
Why do people always stop this quote at the breath? The rest of it says that he still thinks they need tech employees.
> .... and in 12 months, we might be in a world where the ai is writing essentially all of the code. But the programmer still needs to specify what are the conditions of what you're doing. What is the overall design decision. How we collaborate with other code that has been written. How do we have some common sense with whether this is a secure design or an insecure design. So as long as there are these small pieces that a programmer has to do, then I think human productivity will actually be enhanced
(He then said it would continue improving, but this was not in the 12 month prediction.)
Source interview: https://www.youtube.com/live/esCSpbDPJik?si=kYt9oSD5bZxNE-Mn
I actually like claude code, but that was always a risky thing to say (actually I recall him saying their software is 90% AI produced) considering their cli tool is literally infested with bugs. (Or it least it was last time I used it heavily. Maybe they've improved it since.)
Is this why everyone only seems to know the first half of Dario's quote? The guy in that video is commenting on a 40 second clip from twitter, not the original interview.
I posted a link and transcription of the rest of his "three to six months" quote here: https://news.ycombinator.com/item?id=46126784
I'm curious what people think of quotes like these. Obviously it makes an explicit, falsifiable prediction. That prediction is false. There are so many reasons why someone could predict that it would be false. Is it just optimistic marketing speech, or do they really believe it themselves?
Everybody knows that marketing speech is optimistic. Which means if you give realistic estimates, then people are going to assume those are also optimistic.
The big picture of “build a runtime” is an easier idea than “what would make this runtime better and how should the parts interact”.
Given the horrible stability of Windows this year, it seems like Microsoft went all in on that
What languages and frameworks? What is the domain space you're operating in? I use Cursor to help with some tasks, but mainly only use the autocomplete. It's great; no complaints. I just don't ever see being able to turn over anywhere close to 90% with the stuff we work on.
My stack is React/Express/Drizzle/Postgres/Node/Tailwind. It's built on Hetzner/AWS, which I terraformed with AI.
You can see my site here, if you'd like: https://chipscompo.com/
Probably about 95% of mine now. Much better than I could for the most part.
Weird, AI writes terrible code for me that would never pass a code review. I guess people have different standards for good code.
I suspect you do not know how to use AI for writing code. No offence intended - it is a journey for everyone.
You have to be setup with the right agentic coding tool, agent rules, agent tools (MCP servers), dynamic context acquisition and workflow (working with the agent operate from a plan rather than simple prompting and hoping for the best).
But if you're lazy, don't put the effort in to understand what you're working with and how to approach it with an engineering mindset - you'll be be left on the outside complaining and telling people how it's all hype.
I think this wound up being close enough to true, it's just that it actually says less than what people assumed at the time.
It's basically the Jevons paradox for code. The price of lines of code (in human engineer-hours) has decreased a lot, so there is a bunch of code that is now economically justifiable which wouldn't have been written before. For example, I can prompt several ad-hoc benchmarking scripts in 1-2 minutes to troubleshoot an issue which might have taken 10-20 minutes each by myself, allowing me to investigate many performance angles. Not everything gets committed to source control.
Put another way, at least in my workflow and at my workplace, the volume of code has increased, and most of that increase comes from new code that would not have been written if not for AI, and a smaller portion is code that I would have written before AI but now let the AI write so I can focus on harder tasks. Of course, it's uneven penetration, AI helps more with tasks that are well-described in the training set (webapps, data science, Linux admin...) compared to e.g. issues arising from quirky internal architecture, Rust, etc.