His argument follows almost directly, and trivially, from his central premise: a 0% or 1% chance of reaching AGI.
Yeah, if you assume technology will stagnate over the next decade and AGI is essentially impossible, these investments will not be profitable. Sam Altman himself wouldn't dispute that. But it's a controversial premise, and one that there's no particular reason to think that the... CEO of IBM would have any insight into.
It's a very reasonable claim to make, but yes, average denizen of peanut gallery can spot this is a bubble from a mile way, doensn't need "insight" of napkin math done by some CEO that's not even in the industry.
Tho he's probably not too happy that they sold the server business to Lenovo, could at least earn something on selling shovels
we don't need AGI to use all that compute
we need businesses who are willing to pay for ai / compute at prices where both sides are making money
I for one could 10x my AI usage if the results on my side pan out. Spending $100 on ai today has ROI, will 10x that still have ROI for me in a couple years? probably, I expect agentic teams to increase in capability and more of my work. Then the question is can I turn that increase productivity into more revenues (>$1000 / month, one more client would cover this and then some)
then it seems like neither Sam Altman (pro) or IBM (proxy con) have credible or even really interesting or insightful evidence, theories ... even suggestions for what's likely to happen? i.e. We should stop listening to all of them?