Comment by observationist

The Law of Accelerating Returns is a better formulation, not tied to any particular substrate, it's just not as widely known.

https://imgur.com/a/UOUGYzZ - had chatgpt whip up an updated chart.

LoAR shows remarkably steady improvement. It's not about space or power efficiency, just ops per $1000, so transistor counts served as a very good proxy for a long time.

There's been sufficiently predictable progress that 80-100 TFLOPS in your pocket by 3035 is probably a solid bet, especially if a fully generative AI OS and platform catches on as a product. The LoAR frontier for compute in 2035 is going to be more advanced than the limits of prosumer/flagship handheld products like phones, so theres a bit of lag and variability.