Comment by bluGill
Most people use -O2 and so if you use -O3 you risk some bug in the optimizer that nobody else noticed yet. -O2 is less likely to have problems.
In my experience a team of 200 developers will see 1 compiler bug affect them every 10 years. This isn't scientific, but it is a good rule of thumb and may put the above in perspective.
Would you say that bug estimate is when using -O2 or -O3?