Comment by rhubarbtree

In football (soccer), a team leading the match but conceding a late goal is then very likely to concede again and lose the game. The reason is momentum: the challenger is highly motivated and opportunity driven, whilst the incumbent typically drops deep defensively and is loss averse.

So it is in business. It is very, very, difficult for an incumbent terrified of losing to the upstart. The momentum is with the challenger. They are faced with nothing but opportunity. Panic sets in. And the people responsible for the original win at the incumbent have either left (been substituted? Stretching my analogy) or don’t have the energy for the new battle.

Google will lose to OpenAI because it is a huge bureaucratic monster that has enshittified its main product. It deserves to die.

Google will survive, but it will become a shadow of its former self. And it deserves to wither, because it has ruined its own product.