The funniest outcome would be Apple throwing so much money at Intel Foundry that they end up monopolizing the leading-edge nodes, like they do at TSMC, leaving the rest of Intel to fight for scraps on their own production lines. I guess Intel also uses TSMC now but... yeah, as mentioned.
Both are objectively true, though. IFS would finally stand on it's own legs with a customer at Apple's scale, and Intel has the required IP and know-how to provide a stopgap RISC chip to embedded and datacenter customers that Apple usually ignores.
The "nightmare scenario" of Apple buying out the entirety of 14A to fabricate ARM chips is more-or-less what Pat Gelsinger spent his tenure trying to arrange.
Why would Intel design and make a RISC-V chips? Fundamentally they don't have any inherent advantages over x86 or ARM whatsoever(for datacenter atleast). It makes no sense for Intel to make embedded chips on 14A or non several generations old process either (margins on them are pitiful anyway and won't sustain Intel R&D spending).
Also x86 provides a huge moat to Intel/AMD which allows them to charge much higher prices than if they had to compete with anyone else.
Yes, and to put this in perspective: TSMC is valued around 8x higher than Intel at the moment. If Intel could become a major competitor to TSMC, I don't think they'd worry about Apple monopolizing leading edge nodes.
If Intel becomes the leading foundry, even if their x86 chips are a little behind Apple, they'll still be ahead of AMD. Apple start shipping 3nm back in 2023. It's looking like AMD will get there in another year. If Intel becomes the leading foundry and they're 12-18 months behind Apple, that'll still put them 18-24 months ahead of AMD.
Plus, it's important to think about the symbiotic relationship between TSMC and Apple. Apple can commit to large orders which gives TSMC the ability to invest. If Intel can get that business away from AMD, it means that TSMC won't have the same ability to push the envelope. Without Apple to pay top dollar for early access, will TSMC have the ROI necessary to keep moving as fast as they have been?
I don't think Intel would be concerned about Apple getting the latest Intel Foundry nodes before x86 does. It'd be a win for investors and ultimately a win for their x86 chips too. TSMC has benefitted from being able to invest in improvements and have Apple pay top dollar for it. If TSMC loses that, it also means that AMD, Nvidia, Qualcomm, and other Intel competitors lose the ability to ride the Apple-TSMC coattails.
>> If Intel becomes the leading foundry, even if their x86 chips are a little behind Apple, they'll still be ahead of AMD. Apple start shipping 3nm back in 2023. It's looking like AMD will get there in another year.
No? AMD is beating Intel in power and performance. It's true they will only reach 3nm for desktop next year with Zen 6, but they're beating Intel which is already at a smaller node. In essence AMD is lagging on process because they can. They're being very strategic while Intel is struggling to catch up. Zen 7 is going to be my next build, and it may be my last x86.
At that point Intel would be a highly successful foundry business! Then they could make very high performance RISC-V cores and offer them to foundry customers who need CPU. No need for legacy x86 at that point.