Comment by mangecoeur

Comment by mangecoeur 3 days ago

13 replies

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Many of the dumb ideas being hyped in this AI bubble make sense viewed through this lens.

Data centres stirring up opposition? Sell a sci-fi vision that you will move them to Space! And reassure your over-extended investors that the data centre buildout rush you’re committing to isn’t going to get bogged down in protests and lawsuits.

The people hyping this stuff are not stupid, just their real goal (make as much money as possible as quickly as possible) has only a vague relationship to what they claim to be doing.

smcin 3 days ago

If Arthur C Clarke was still alive, he would be much in demand as sci-fi frontperson for these.

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rsynnott 3 days ago

At the point, it's beginning to feel a bit like the 419 scam (where you make the details deliberately absurd so as to ward off people inclined to be sceptical early, leaving you with only the easiest marks.) SMRs! Data centres in space! "phD level AIs".

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  • eru 3 days ago

    You can short the publicly traded companies that do this.

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    • jeltz 3 days ago

      No, because to do that and not ruin myself I need to know roughly when the double will burst. Just knowing it is a bubble is not enough.

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      • jnwatson 3 days ago

        Exactly. I shorted Sears in 2005 when Lampert took over. I knew he was going to drive that company into the ground.

        Sears went bankrupt in 2018. It took a long time for the market to catch on.

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      • datavirtue 3 days ago

        Most investors can time this aspect of the market accurately enough. It's tough for these people to stand by and watch profit being left on the table for a year or two, though. So they get back in, seeing how long they can leave their hand on the got plate.

        Myself, I made the decision to go to cash a while ago, right before the recent AI pullback. Things were going great for a week until I started seeing all that money go unclaimed. I get back in, and the pullback I predicted happens. It was my own conscious decision to look past the gorilla in the room to get more free treats. I'll be fine but this is a good anecdote for how these things unfold.

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        • vpribish 2 days ago

          It is not at all true that "Most investors can time this aspect of the market". This is laughably, absurdly, wrong - as if most people could predict the future. Here's a little advice I sincerely pray you accept : don't trade options.

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    • rsynnott 3 days ago

      The market can, as always, remain irrational longer than you can remain solvent, or certainly for longer than _I_ can.

      Like, come on, you must understand what a stupid response this is? “There is a bubble” is not a sufficient thesis to, well, do much of anything on.

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      • datavirtue 3 days ago

        Really? Logic wouldn't dictate that if I'm up 300% or more over two years and everyone is starting to get jittery about an AI bubble that perhaps I should pull out now and await the pullback? If it happens in a year, and I can buy back in at a 15-20% discount, that is also a return!! Do you hold for possibly another 5%? That doesn't make any sense. Your cash gets 4% a year just waiting--paid monthly.

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