Comment by danans

Comment by danans 3 days ago

18 replies

> The percentage of American adults over age 25 who have a college degree was only 20% as recently as 1990. When America was truly at the top of the world in the 1950s and 1960s, it was under 10%.

Due to automation and the great advance of technology, the floor for most jobs has risen such that the skills/knowledge that a 1950s school dropout had would be insufficient for anything but the most menial jobs today.

Outside of a few sectors like agricultural or physical service labor, our economy just doesn't need less educated people anymore.

That doesn't mean everyone needs a 4 year degree, but to make a sustainable living at least a degree from a trade or service school focused on some advanced technician skill is required, and that must be followed by apprenticeship and licensing. In the end, it requires as much time as University, but might cost less if the education is at a public community college.

jswelker 3 days ago

Community colleges are the best existing institution we have to fill the gap. They are too wedded to the university model though. Credit hours, semesters, discrete courses, administrative overhead, the whole works, minus much of the campus life dressing.

Hell I applaud even boot camps for trying to fill it, for all their faults. At least they tried something slightly different.

bombcar 3 days ago

Our immigration policies pretty strongly indicate we still need those less educated people doing work, we just don’t want to pay anything resembling reasonable wages for such.

  • danans 3 days ago

    I agree that our system relies heavily on uneducated migrants for menial labor.

    However, uneducated people in the 1950s regularly got jobs in factories that paid enough for a single income to support a family.

    That opportunity for uneducated Americans won't come back, regardless of our immigration policies.

    • stefs 3 days ago

      While it's true that it was possible to support a family on a single unskilled laborer income in the '50s, their standard of living was far below anything most people would accept today.

      • fpoling 3 days ago

        A single income family in US with the husband working at a factory in fifties and sixties could afford a home with washing machine, dish washer, TV and a phone. Surely the home was smaller, but it was easier to clean, the TV screen was tiny, but then the family can go to a cinema. There was no internet, but for information one could go to the library. So how it was far below what people in US could accept today?

      • immibis 3 days ago

        Depends how you measure, surely. They had less TVs and computers and prepackaged food, the same amount of sunlight, and more freedom (as measured by average income to rent ratio).

        • crossbody 3 days ago

          Not true, the share of income going to living necessities has steadily dropped. Even not true for sunlight - the air quality was so much worse that you couldn't see much of the sun anyway

    • K0balt 3 days ago

      It’s likely that automation is about to turn the world on its ear vis-a-vis low skilled employment. The cost of human sustenance and care is surprisingly high compared to electricity, steel, carbon fiber, and silicon.

torginus 3 days ago

That is absolutely untrue - a large part of the jobs were either outsourced and/or automated to be trivial, but a large part is essentially barely made easier by technology - food service, all the jobs necessary for running and building infrastructure, homes etc. is only changing very slowly due to technology - this is due to the nature of the fields, even if there were rapid advancement in plumbing (there weren't) in the past few decades, most of the buildings are standing and rebuilding them makes little sense - same with water treatment facilities, power plants etc.

In fact I would argue in some ways society is even less capable today - the percentage of people skilled in the trades is much lower, so it would be much harder to rebuild from scratch.

seec 3 days ago

Hard disagree. Most useful skill and knowledge is still learned on the job. The "education" is just a selection process. And not only it is a pretty bad one, it is extremely costly.

  • danans 3 days ago

    > Most useful skill and knowledge is still learned on the job. The "education" is just a selection process.

    It selects for the ability and intrinsic motivation to learn.

    If you were running a factory or a building construction company, wouldn't you want that in someone you hire?

    Are there high school dropouts who have the ability and intrinsic motivation? Of course there are. Many drop out due to poverty and family/community strife, or mental health challenges.

    But as an employer would you risk assuming a high school dropout had the same motivation?

    • seec 3 days ago

      > It selects for the ability and intrinsic motivation to learn.

      You are confusing obedience and willingness to jump through hoops with the motivation to learn. People largely don't need school to learn most things. I would argue that most good learners actually hate school. It would be challenging to self-teach your way to advanced math/physics but that does not concern the vast majority of education. Being motivated to learned is deeply linked to having a reason for learning. I actually wouldn't trust people who were too industrious at school for careerist reasons because it mostly means they are able to tolerate bullshit and rote learn without much pushback on nonsense. STEM is somewhat immune to this because you need at least some form of understanding to solve actual problems but plenty of field have a legitimacy issue resulting from this effect. Notably the medical field is full of hard working idiots and most of the social sciences are infested with ideological parrots. Allegedly it is supposed to select for conscientiousness but since I have faced specialised doctors who schedule 2 interventions when it could be done in one for billing purpose, I would argue it's mostly self-interest or a very perverted form of conscientiousness.

      > If you were running a factory or a building construction company, wouldn't you want that in someone you hire?

      Someone having a specific diploma doesn't mean he is actually competent in practice. It is just more likely that he isn't absolutely terrible, but that's mostly risk edging. It's funny you take that example because a while ago there was a news in France where an architect had sentenced because he practiced without the required diploma. The guy was 60 and he had designed some big building, even for the public market (his mistake); he had learnt on the job with a mentor and never got around finishing the school curriculum. Le Corbusier famously didn't have any formal architectural training yet seventeen of his projects are on UNESCO list. So I dunno, personally I would hire Le Corbusier regardless of his training if I ever could afford it but the point is that everyone should be free to choose for themselves, not the powers that be of the education establishment.

      > Are there high school dropouts who have the ability and intrinsic motivation?

      Yes, it doesn't mean anything, just that they got bored with education system or had some other problem. Two of the most valuable companies were founded by drop outs, Steve Jobs and Bill Gates (not high-school, but first year of college is basically the same). If it was just a problem of competence, you could have some sort of certifications for most things, where one could take an exam to prove that he knows what he is doing. But this doesn't happen because it is about enriching a specific class, restricting access to high level jobs to people who will submit to the dominant ideology. Most certifications/exams have a specific education level/diploma as requirement for entry. This is just supply control in favor of the most fortunate. You just cannot reduce ability and motivation to the willingness/capacity to submit to the education system.

      > But as an employer would you risk assuming a high school dropout had the same motivation?

      That's the whole point of a business. Assume risks to merit the potential payoff. Why do you think the cost of job training should be assumed by the public when they will not get any of the private benefits generated. On top of that, the issue is clearly a disconnect between what is needed in the market and what type of curriculum has been sold in universities so it's clearly not working. In any case it seems insane to me that you are arguing for the isolation of training risks for the benefits of business. What is need is relaxed employment regulations, so that if it doesn't work out, it is not too expensive for business to let go of poor prospect. In an healthy labor market, people would find jobs and the required training much easier. Schools are just a way to offload the cost to the private individual at best or to the public at worst. That's just bad, business have no reasons to exist if they are just to leach of public benefits, might as well go full on communism at this point.

      • danans a day ago

        > You are confusing obedience and willingness to jump through hoops with the motivation to learn.

        You can call it obedience or whatever libertarian talking point you like, but the ability to negotiate social systems is an important skill for functioning in society, whether as an employee or entrepreneur.

        It's always been the case, even before industrialization. The most effective STEM workers are the ones who understand the social context they work in, not the narrowly technically focused STEM nerd.

        > Someone having a specific diploma doesn't mean he is actually competent in practice. It is just more likely that he isn't absolutely terrible, but that's mostly risk [h]edging (sic)

        It's absolutely risk hedging, and that's just how most employment works. Most employers are not looking for special snowflakes, that would be really inefficient. They want a likely average competence above a certain level, which varies by industry and company.

        > That's the whole point of a business. Assume risks to merit the potential payoff.

        If you think business are interested in assuming any more risk than absolutely necessary to improve maximize financial outcomes, you haven't been in business much. We live in an era of lean operations (for better or for worse), and it's only getting leaner.

        Companies want to solve the problem they focus on (i.e. build a farm combine), not run a basic education program for understanding the units of torque values on the bolts that hold it together.

        > Why do you think the cost of job training should be assumed by the public when they will not get any of the private benefits generated.

        The public gets taxpayers and a population who can afford to raise a family, which is essential for the continuation of "the public".

        > What is need is relaxed employment regulations, so that if it doesn't work out, it is not too expensive for business to let go of poor prospect.

        We already have relaxed regulations today. The existence of noncompete and at-will employment agreements means that even highly educated workers can be fired without cause.

        Furthermore, many companies try to hire people as contractors for as long as they can get away with it in the labor market. The number of 1099 workers is growing lately, largely due to reduced labor leverage.

        Relaxing employment regulations isn't going to make employers invest in education. They would sooner invest in automation (like automated paint shops for car manufacturing), which is what they have done for generations now.

        Back to to the original point, automation is a major why they don't have need for less educated workers anymore, as anyone who has visited a modern factory can see for themselves.

terminalshort 3 days ago

People can operate heavy equipment and even fly planes without a fancy sounding degree, so I don't think some stupid office job is so complex that a HS grad can't handle it.

BeFlatXIII 3 days ago

> Due to automation and the great advance of technology, the floor for most jobs has risen such that the skills/knowledge that a 1950s school dropout had would be insufficient for anything but the most menial jobs today.

I love to point this out to anti-welfare people and make them blue screen. Especially when they're not willing to acknowledge unethical solutions, such as euthanizing the stupid or acknowledging that not having welfare for an unemployable population shits things up for the rest of society.