Comment by tmoertel

I think author's use of the word "the" is misleading:

> You don’t need every job to choose you. You just need the one that’s the right fit. [emphasis mine]

You don't need the job that's the right fit. There's more than one. You need any job that fits. (Or that you can make fit you.)

So, if you want to size up the search, let p be the probability that a typical job you apply for will (1) result in you being hired and (2) be a job that fits you. Then the expected number of jobs you must apply to before getting hired to a job that fits you is 1/p. [1]

Say you think p = 5%. Then, on average, you'll need to apply to 20 jobs to land one that fits you.

How many jobs do you need to apply to have a 90% chance of landing one that fits you? If q is the wanted probablity of overall success, then the number of jobs k you must apply to is given by k = log(1 − q) / log(1 − p). So, in this example, k = log(1 − 0.9) / log(1 − 0.05) ≈ 45 applications.

That's a lot of rejections and ill-fitting jobs before landing one that sticks. Which is why it's useful to be persistent and flexible. Being able to make a job fit can dramatically reduce your search.

[1] https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Negative_binomial_distribution