Comment by nostrademons

Comment by nostrademons 13 hours ago

2 replies

So I remember urban growth barriers being all the rage in the late 00s, and Portland specifically was held up as a shining example. Many Western cities (eg. Portland, Seattle, SF & the Peninsula, Salt Lake City) followed this general pattern though.

What I actually see, living in one of those metro regions that is land-constrained, is very little infill development and actually implemented creative thinking, and lots of homelessness and unaffordable homes. Sure, being supply-constrained gets people thinking about infill development and mass transit and densification and walkable neighbors. But there's always a barrier, usually multiple ones, to actually putting that into practice. Instead, you get the obvious effects: the supply of homes is constrained, their price rises to the point where only rich people can afford them, everyone else either goes homeless or moves out of the area. Sometimes, very often, a supply constraint simply means that people do without. Even when there is multi-family infill development, people don't want to live there. Everybody wants their SFH, even though intellectually they know it's unsustainable.

I suspect it's going to be the same here. More expensive CPUs and GPUs are just going to mean more expensive CPUs and GPUs with no real silver lining.

lotsofpulp 13 hours ago

> I suspect it's going to be the same here. More expensive CPUs and GPUs are just going to mean more expensive CPUs and GPUs with no real silver lining.

Presumably, higher profits will incentivize other players to enter the market and increase supply, and/or the company earning high profits plows at least some back into R&D to at least create better chips, which can result in eventually lower prices for the previous generation of chips.

This isn’t a possibility with land and land rights, however, so I wouldn’t expect the same dynamics to play out.

  • nostrademons 12 hours ago

    Over a long enough time horizon, yeah. Over a long enough time horizon the same happens in land too - we are finally getting decent amounts of infill development in the Bay Area, but it's 15 years after prices started to skyrocket.

    Starting a semiconductor company and constructing a few fabs at cutting-edge process nodes takes at least that amount of time, so I'd expect semiconductors to have similar dynamics.